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I was just talking to an Uber driver in India just the other day. In India Uber got its dominant market share by offering incentives to the drivers when they joined. Something like if you do n number of trips you will get more money. The incentives were great and so a lot of people got into driving. Bought their own cars. Got cars financed from Uber. And then as supply increased Uber pulled off the incentives with nowhere to go for the drivers.
Now a driver who got 800 rs for an airport trip by himself has to make do with 400 rs in his pocket and Uber gets a 200 rs commision.
Silicon Valley was founded in a spirit of freedom and flexibility but that spirit is clearly and dangerously on the wane insofar as the political environment surrounding the Valley is concerned.
By the 1970s, American enterprise was in decline, a victim of the "big government/big business/big labor" trends glamorized by establishment types of that day. What this did was take away choice and flexibility.
Tech changed all that and it did so from the heart of Silicon Valley. Tech arose from a spirit of freedom and flexibility. Founders would get an idea and would have countless ways of experimenting with what they could do with it with the aim of building a venture. Many of the most wildly successful ventures came out of nowhere. No central committee could have planned for them. No overlords of big business could have had the imagination or risk-taking fortitude to push them at the expense of their established cash cows of that day. No union could comfortably impose rigid work rules onto such amorphous ventures (the first thing Intel workers did even after the company succeeded was to reject unionization). No minimum wage or overtime rules applied. Benefits packages of the type widely deployed in the analog-based large businesses of that day were unheard of.
Regulators and taxers of that era continually tried to realize their vision of locking people into situations by which they would have guaranteed security, ossifying the mature businesses over which they had control, but tech simply outran them through innovation. And, in time, upended them by disrupting their industries through innovation and risk-taking.
Today, the spirit of Silicon Valley has changed and is yielding to a belief system by which the overlords of politics believe they can dictate outcomes that will give people locked-in security forever. Want to do something as an independent to earn a livelihood? Sorry, AB5 forbids that and will penalize the hell out of any venture that seeks to use fleelancing and flexibility as a foundation for innovation and growth. Your choice to act an an independent is frozen out by dictates that, if you act at all to make a living, you must do it within rigid systems that guarantee minimum compensation, regulate overtime, prescribe minimum guaranteed benefits, and the like. If this kills opportunities, no problem: there will be other rules that guarantee basic income, limit the rent you have to pay, and otherwise regulate society such that people are guaranteed a risk-free existence courtesy of decrees enacted by political proclamation.
This new mindset is precisely the one of the 1970s-era leaders who managed to choke off innovation and growth in old-line businesses and gave a massive opening to tech innovators, particularly those in Silicon Valley.
pg's modeling of the effects of a wealth tax is spot on. And it confirms that such a tax is an innovation-killing idea that would destroy the spirit of Silicon Valley. Of course, tech innovation will not cease. It will just move elsewhere to escape the tax. Europe in the 1990s had a couple of dozen or more countries that imposed wealth taxes. Today it has three, if I recall. There is a reason for that. It is a highly pernicious tax that kills enterprise and that veers from a capitalist (even progressive) philosophy into one that is directly of a Marxist/communist variety that has left so many nations in rubble once fully implemented. Smart, innovative people are not going to stick around for the con game. They will leave.
I have watched Silicon Valley grow and flourish for decades now and have been directly involved in working with thousands of entrepreneurs who have been a part of it. There have been a lot of political changes over those decades but one thing remained constant: the foundational thinking in California always assumed a capitalistic structure. Once that is abandoned, Silicon Valley will be no more.
I know that the vast majority of HN'ers are progressive in their thinking and we all can have our own ideas about what makes for a good and just society. I am not commenting on that here.
There is a line that cannot be crossed, however, without killing the Valley itself and all that it stands for. The wealth tax clearly crosses that line and, if things are allowed to go that way, the consequences may not be what you expect them to be. It doesn't take much to switch from a tax of .4% on assets over $30M (bad as that is in itself) to a tax of a much higher rate on a much lower threshold of assets. Once that monster is unleased, who knows where it will go. It will be fundamental transformation of the Valley, and not a good one.
As I said, just my two cents.
Another question that arises here is if the discussion is happening because the tax collected is not sufficient currently? If that is the case then a proper solution would be to and i hate to say this increase the tax rates for everyone. The number of billionaires the people want to tax are essentially pretty low and in a country based economy where there are pretty large numbers haggling away their 1 percent wont really make a difference to a big country.
The issue with wealth tax is that it focusses on a particular well off section of society and that particular section of society is actually just being targeted because they are wealthy. The thing people take for granted is the number of jobs and employment they generate and the services they provide. They actually are so well off that i worry if someone would be able to stop them if they just decide to leave?
Its rather mundane to say that the wealth is not trickling down. These people are generating wealth. Why do you think US is the biggest world economy? Hint: its because of these billionaires we love to hate.
just my 2 cents.