I think part of my cynicism comes in the wake of the 2016 election, in which the forecast rightfully counted some scenarios in which either candidate could win, upon which conclusion of the model was basically "the result fits in with the forecast, because either candidate could have won according to the model" - in which case I personally concluded, if no matter what the result, we can always just say "the candidate who won could always have won given the forecast" - what are we really adding to the conversation here? We can simply look at polls and understand who is generally ahead, and not be any better or worse off.
All the other distilled models and qwen coder and similar are a large step below the above models in terms of most benchmarks. If someone is running a small 20GB model locally, they will not have the same experience as those who run the top of the line models.
If DeepSeek reduce the required computational resources, we can pour more computational resources to improve it further. There's nothing bad about more resources.
Training is a huge component of Nvidia's projected growth. Inference is actually much more competitive, but training is almost exclusively Nvidia's domain. If Deepseek's claims are true, that would represent a 10x reduction in cost for training for similar models (6 million for r1 vs 60 million for something like o1).
It is absolutely not the case in ML that "there is nothing bad about more resources". There is something very bad - cost. And another bad thing - depreciation. And finally, another bad thing - the fact that new chips and approaches are coming out all the time, so if you are on older hardware you might be missing out. Training complex models for cheaper will allow companies to potentially re-allocate away from hardware into software (ie, hiring more engineering to build more models, instead of less engineers and more hardware to build less models).
Finally, there is a giant elephant in the room that it is very unclear if throwing more resources at LLM training will net better results. There are diminishing returns in terms of return on investment in training, especially with LLM-style use cases. It is actually very non-obvious right now how pouring more compute specifically at training will result in better LLMs.
For anyone who doesn't follow AMD at all (good move, their consumer support for compute leaves scars) they appear to have a strategy of targeting the server market in hopes of scooping out the high-profit part of the GPGPU world. Hopefully that does well for them, but based on my years of regret at being an AMD customer watching the AI revolution zoom by, I'd be hesitant about that translating to good compute experiences on consumer hardware. I assume the situation is much improved from what I was used to, but I don't trust them to see supporting small users as a priority.
When looking at the market cap, there are three main pillars of valuation - revenue growth, profit growth, and net income. If all three are growing, you are an industry darling. If two are growing, you are still likely to be valued highly. If you have only one, you are much riskier. If you have none, it's a red flag.
As of the latest earnings report, AMD profit, revenue and net income are all increasing. Intel, they are all decreasing. If analysts assume trends hold, AMD can grow into its valuation and Intel is currently heading towards being worth nothing unless they change their business. Simply put, a business that is losing all three of revenue, profit margin, and net income is simply headed on the wrong path for investors, and will be punished in an outsized way when it comes to predicting it's future value (ie, market cap).
It's not surprising that Amazon has moved to 5 days a week despite so many people gaming the system and not actually caring about being in person. There's likely some algorithm driving this entire movement that doesn't take into account any of the real nuance that team dynamics requires, let alone taking into account that there are tangible benefits to remote work.
All the communication of RTO invokes the most fanciful and vague references to "magical hallway conversations" and "increased collaboration" without a single data point to back up any of the claims.
It has been almost humorous to watch such stalwarts of "data driven decision making" turn up a giant goose egg with respect to actual evidence on such a huge, impactful, and far reaching decision.
Ha! So far it's had a pretty good history, and 4 American citizens have been killed from it.
- Anwar al-Awlaki - Abdulrahman al-Awlaki - Samir Khan - Jude Kenan Mohammad
Their due process, as enumerated in the constitution was conclusively violated; and only one (Anwar) was targeted due to involvement in Al-Qaeda.
https://ecf.dcd.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin/show_public_doc?2012cv1...
The judge ruled there was no violation of their constitutional rights, explicitly because Congress was involved in authorizing military action against the wider threat and specifically in this case Congress was in the approval process for authorizing individual targets.
There was no violation of checks and balances here. That is not to say other uses of the so-called "disposition matrix" might be challenged in the future, but at least in the cases of these individuals, the courts have ruled that no rights were violated.
Or just add them to the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disposition_Matrix.
"As reported previously, United States citizens may be listed as targets for killing in the database. Suspects are not formally charged of any crime nor offered a trial in their defense. Obama administration lawyers have asserted that U.S. citizens alleged to be members of Al Qaeda and said to pose an "imminent threat of violent attack" against the United States may be killed without judicial process. The legal arguments of U.S. officials for this policy were leaked to NBC News in February 2013, in the form of briefing papers summarizing legal memos from October 2011."
https://ecf.dcd.uscourts.gov/cgi-bin/show_public_doc?2012cv1...
It's an interesting read, but part of the argument was that there were Congressional checks and balances in place for security threat review and congress authorized force against the group in question which essentially gave the executive branch authority to add the specific targets in question.
The legality of the disposition matrix at large can still be tested and re-tested depending on the specific actions of the executive branch.
This is nonsense. The President can just assassinate all of their political rivals in Congress that would hold them to account. Before this ruling there was an assumption that any such actions would be prosecuted after the President was no longer in office (assuming they didn't have enough power to interfere with a free election). Now that can't realistically happen.
There's a reason why folks are saying this ruling, "paves the way to a dictatorship"!
For your hypothetical situation to arise, Congress would have to declare members of Congress themselves as valid military targets.
Like, clearly plastics are bad. And yet, humans like the convenience, the utility.