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outop commented on College Grades Have Become a Charade. It's Time to Abolish Them.   wsj.com/us-news/education... · Posted by u/bookofjoe
gjsman-1000 · a year ago
No; there’s just been grade inflation combined with greater awareness on what will be on the tests. Objectively, our students are coming out of high school and college with the lowest preparedness for jobs than almost anytime prior, as ranked by employer surveys.

Also, the LSAT is not static. It has changed over the years as instruction methods have also changed and as demographics have changed; so it is not a reliable measure of aptitude in any way.

outop · a year ago
How do we know that employer attitudes and expectations have remained the same?
outop commented on Mapping 20k ships that sank during WW II   storymaps.arcgis.com/stor... · Posted by u/ohjeez
mulmen · a year ago
The US Air Force didn’t exist in WWII. 350,000 people served in the US Army’s 8th Air Force.

You can get a more detailed breakdown on Wikipedia:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties#mili...

outop · a year ago
Yes and the stat refers to bomber crews, not to all the people in that force.
outop commented on Mapping 20k ships that sank during WW II   storymaps.arcgis.com/stor... · Posted by u/ohjeez
llamaimperative · a year ago
What would be the more sane version? Allow nuclear armed states to invade whoever they want whenever they want?
outop · a year ago
Why should China be an exception?
outop commented on Mapping 20k ships that sank during WW II   storymaps.arcgis.com/stor... · Posted by u/ohjeez
piqufoh · a year ago
> But by 1943, the tides had turned in their favor.

> There is a clear inflection point around March 1943: From this point onward, the Allied forces sank more ships every month than they lost.

Any idea what what happened early 1943? Was there a specific event that changed the direction, or is the balance point of slow attrition?

outop · a year ago
If you look at the graphs there is nothing like an 'inflection point' or qualitative change in the graph behaviour.

The Allied line goes slowly down and the Axis line goes slowly up. At one point they cross, but there's nothing particularly significant about that crossing point. Nothing happened in the month that they crossed other than the two numbers were equal momentarily.

outop commented on Mapping 20k ships that sank during WW II   storymaps.arcgis.com/stor... · Posted by u/ohjeez
opo · a year ago
There were certainly groups in the services in WW II who suffered much higher casualties. For example, flying in a bomber crew was very dangerous. I can't quickly find some complete stats, but for example in 1943:

>During 1943, only about 25% of Eighth Air Force bomber crewmen completed their 25-mission tours—the other 75% were killed, severely wounded, or captured.

https://www.nationalmuseum.af.mil/Visit/Museum-Exhibits/Fact...

outop · a year ago
But you're now talking about a much smaller group within the US Air Force. Obviously if you zoom in on any small unit of any force, you can find units with extremely high casualty rates.

Dead Comment

outop commented on Using Fibonacci numbers to convert from miles to kilometers and vice versa   catonmat.net/fibonacci-mi... · Posted by u/thunderbong
outop · a year ago
One problem with this is that it decomposes 2 * 55 to 89 + 21, etc which makes the conversion slightly harder than just converting 55 and doubling.
outop · a year ago
Also the decomposition of 88 is 55 + 21 + 8 + 3 + 1. A lot of terms just to find that phi * (Fn - 1) is (F{n+1} - 1) which isn't even very accurate.
outop commented on Iron as an inexpensive storage medium for hydrogen   ethz.ch/en/news-and-event... · Posted by u/bornelsewhere
londons_explore · a year ago
I think electricity use is far more elastic than you're imagining. Plenty of big users can turn up/down production and already do so based on prices. If wide price swings got more frequent, more stuff would get dynamic.

You can imagine home appliances having an 'eco' setting which runs the appliance like the washing or the dishwasher at the cheapest time in the next 12 hours.

Or the water heating systems which heat more water when prices are cheap.

Or heaters which switch between natural gas and heat pump based on price.

Or electric car chargers which charge during the cheapest hours.

(all of these already exist, but none are yet common).

Over the long term there is also plenty of elasticity. If electric heating is expensive, people will install gas/oil heaters when they renovate. If electricity is cheap, more people buy electric cars. With cheap electricity, maybe fewer people decide to add more insulation to their houses. Businesses don't upgrade energy inefficient equipment to be more energy efficient, etc.

Plenty of demand elasticity in both the short and long term. End result: As long as the market is unconstrained, prices won't hit zero more than say ~5% of the time.

outop · a year ago
I disagree that this argument makes it less likely to have very low prices much of the time. I think it makes it more likely.

If peak to trough is a large gap, say 60% of peak, this tends to make it less likely that peak will be met by overproduction, since that would involve very large capital costs.

The picture you paint above would suggest a very small gap between peak and trough, say 2% of peak. This means that almost certainly there would be enough over capacity to more than meet peak demand. Therefore the total daily demand would be more than met by capacity, leading to some energy being thrown away. So at all times except the peak, the marginal cost would be zero.

You have given an accurate argument for why demand would be elastic at trough. But you haven't given any reason why overall demand would be very elastic.

outop commented on Using Fibonacci numbers to convert from miles to kilometers and vice versa   catonmat.net/fibonacci-mi... · Posted by u/thunderbong
sorokod · a year ago
As suggested elsewhere, this is more of a party trick then a practical approach to convert between km and miles.

The Wikipedia entry does suggest a greedy algorithm (at each step choosing the largest fib number that fits) though, using that we have

121 = 89 + 21 + 8 + 3

outop · a year ago
One problem with this is that it decomposes 2 * 55 to 89 + 21, etc which makes the conversion slightly harder than just converting 55 and doubling.
outop commented on Iron as an inexpensive storage medium for hydrogen   ethz.ch/en/news-and-event... · Posted by u/bornelsewhere
londons_explore · a year ago
I suspect in the next 50 years electricity will end up globally transportable via undersea cables, like the internet does for data today.

At that point, it's always summertime somewhere and it's always daylight somewhere, and if prices were to fall to zero there is always someone who would like more heat for something.

Therefore I suspect zero-priced energy will stop existing.

outop · a year ago
Isn't it possible that such a system will over-produce 99% of the year and that therefore, the marginal cost will almost always be $0?

'Take my energy and allow me to stop accelerating my flywheels which regulate production' seems more plausible than 'someone would always like more heat for something' (what?)

Or possibly 'take my energy and I'll cut off some of the people using spare energy to do low priority, low value computation for free'?

u/outop

KarmaCake day215March 19, 2024View Original