Clearly written before Codex 5.3 and Opus 4.6 shipped :)
Readit Newsosigurdson commented on AI fatigue is real and nobody talks about it siddhantkhare.com/writing... · Posted by u/sidk24
Great if you’re you, but try getting AverageSWE a local kube setup and see how quickly they ramp up on it
In my ideal world everyone would use kubernetes, it is the hammer and everything is a nail, but we must recognize that it is difficult for a lot of people to pick up.
That being said, if you’re deploying on kube in production, use kube locally. But if you’re not, dont
Using kube in production but really, even if I wasn't, I would still use the podman play kube approach. It isn't hard (at all) and isn't kubernetes, just kubernetes yaml. I actually find docker / compose a bit harder sometimes with the daemon running in the background.
I've just moved on from docker compose. Instead I have a K8s like yaml file and use podman kube play. The learning curve is pretty small in my opinion and at least it is a little closer to production.
What do you get when you type in “Maximize NPV” to a human?
"Maximize NPV" is exactly what shareholders prompt boards of directors with. Not all humans can do it, but some can. Perhaps your argument is that AGI isn't required to solve software. This would imply that human level intelligence isn't actually required today to build software.
They are bits that are cryptographically true and unique. It may not be tangible but now we are getting into philosophy of mathematics and whether math is real or not?
I believe in math therefore I believe in cryptography.
>> I believe in math therefore I believe in cryptography
You aren't really believing in math. Doubling the number of Bitcoin in the world is not blocked by mathematics (trivially change the constant in the source code), it is blocked by a consensus of humans believing in the artificial scarcity that a system robustly provides. For instance, if Bitcoin ever adopts post quantum cryptography, the math breaks - it is a technical fork. But, since a vast majority of participants (maintainers, miners and holders) will likely agree that it is a good idea this new fork will be named "Bitcoin" and everyone will be happy. Not math at all, rather a broad consensus among humans.
I'm not suggesting Bitcoin is a bad investment at all, but believing in it because it "is math" is not correct.
Good AI asks clarification questions. Codex plan mode is already getting there-ish.
I suppose it is really only possible to know how close something is until it arrives. When I type in "Maximize NPV" into Codex / Claude Code, I feel like it is incredibly far away from full autonomous capability. I guess we will see.
“Analyze these business requirements and create a software solution for the problems you identified”.
Right now it can get part way there but quickly falls flat.
In 12-24 months? It’ll be able to audit itself and determine how to fix issues as they come up, mid-stream. That’s (all of) what a human dev does.
How detailed are the business requirements however? "Increase NPV" is certainly a business requirement, albeit a very abstract one. "Add a checkbox to this form" is another, far more concrete business requirement.
osigurdson commented on Data centers in space makes no sense civai.org/blog/space-data... · Posted by u/ajyoon
I was talking about technical talent in general, and using big tech as a yardstick. I think it's even more likely there are a lot more capable antenna engineers outside the world than in the US, since the US didn't spend the past decades vacuuming up talent (then again, it it did, most of those would not be able to get a security clearance).
> Wouldn't a simpler explanation be that SpaceX is making a lot of money while xAI is losing a lot.
Just checked, and SpaceX made $15B last year (with $8B in profit). Afaik xAI spent $12B last year, meaning it would make the whole company operate at a loss, with no clue as to why it would make it profitable (none of the revenue came from AI).
Even if datacenters in space make sense, wouldn't OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, etc. want those? By merging with a competitor, SpaceX loses all that business, and possibly invites govt scrutiny.
So if we assume that the primary rationale is indeed to gain access to non-US talent, and simply having or merging with another company is a workaround for that, why not do this sooner by creating or merging with another company? What is unique about xAI / Twitter?
That's not a 1000X improvement in current AI. That's more like a 2x ~ 5x improvement in current AI, which is measured in months.
So, within months your prompt can simply be "increase NPV" and machines will do the rest? If not, what prompt will work perfectly in your estimation by the end of the year?
So you think this downturn will be short lived?
When management realise that the vibe coded projects are not maintainable, SAAS will be as popular as ever
It seems that current advantages would compound with AI. I.e., if I am making a SaaS for Popsicle stick makers today, why I am disadvantaged with AI vs a new competitor in the space? I guess the hypothesis is the Popsicle stick maker will vibe code all of the software that they need instead. For that, we need significantly better AI than we have today - perhaps something like a 1000X improvement. Basically, this is a world in which non-technical grandparents can vibe code anything that they want. This means, it understands what you want without you being able to articulate it well in the first place.