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notabothonest commented on Nuclear Close Calls: Able Archer 83 (2018)   atomicheritage.org/histor... · Posted by u/omnibrain
lamontcg · 3 years ago
> The only way WWIII happens is if we appease Russia.

I mean that is obviously overly dramatic posturing nonsense.

If we give them the territory they hold today they're in no shape to take anything else, and they certainly won't launch WWIII.

I don't support appeasement in any way, but that isn't the road to WWIII.

notabothonest · 3 years ago
> I mean that is obviously overly dramatic posturing nonsense.

No it is not, not in the least. I wouldn't be so dismissive of someone when you clearly don't know the subject area (geopolitics).

There are geopolitical reasons for what Putin is doing in Ukraine. I recommend listing to "Peter Zeihan" on the subject, for starters. He's covered the war very well.

The underlying goal is to push the Russian "frontier" up to defensible geographical choke points before Russia's demographic decline makes it impossible to do so. This doesn't stop at Ukraine. The push would take all of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Ukraine, Moldova, a north eastern chunk of Romania, and an eastern chunk of Poland up to the Vistula. Finland would also have to continue to be neutral, or would have to be taken as well. This is why the Russians have reacted badly to the suggestion that Finland is joining NATO. The gas restriction to Germany was a Russian attempt to push the country out of the NATO alliance, which would have made any NATO response difficult once Russia started on NATO states in the Baltic.

Putin has also made it clear that what he can't achieve with conventional military force, he is willing to attempt with tactical nuclear weapons. Taken together, the clear and stated desire to annex NATO nations (see Putin's recent speech on the Baltics historically belonging to Russia, and Ukraine "not being a real country"), the willingness to use nuclear weapons, and the fact that he is very clearly acting with the above aims in mind, should have you concerned.

The fact that the Russian army has been beaten back in Ukraine should not lull us into a false sense of security. They have plenty more manpower reserves they can draw on, and the Russians have a history of starting wars in somewhat of a shambles, before reforming and producing an army that is more of a stream roller.

notabothonest commented on Inside the Irish Republican Army (1994)   spin.com/2015/08/inside-t... · Posted by u/walterbell
raffraffraff · 4 years ago
Before the IRA were engaged in armed conflict, Catholics in Northern Ireland were treated like shit by the British government, police and local authorities. They were denied jobs and housing, the latter basically denying them a vote (see https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_man,_one_vote). After a civil rights movement emerged, the UVF were formed in 1966 by an ex British soldier (Gusty Spencer) and it's ranks were full of soldiers and police. They petrol bombed Catholic homes, schools and businesses. They shot Catholic civilians dead in the streets. Peaceful protests by Catholics were attacked by gangs which included off-duty police. After one march in Derry the police went on a rampage, attacking Catholic homes. Police beat Catholics to death (Samuel Devenny (42) and two of his daughters were beaten in their homes - he died from his injuries. Frances McCloskey (67) was beaten by police during a protest and died of his injuries). In response, the Bogside area went into lock-down, declaring themselves a no-go area for police. Police and loyalists attacked the residents with CS gas, water cannon and armoured vehicles. The Irish government called for a UN peacekeeping force to intervene. What actually happened was that the British army went in. Initially welcomed by the Catholics, they turned out to be even worse than the police: in a single event 745 People were injured (154 with gunshot wounds) and a 9 year old was killed. Hundreds of homes were demolished or badly damaged. The Irish government set up refugee camps South of the border. All of this before the IRA had started their bombing campaigns.

I don't agree with what the IRA did. Never have. But come on. "I don't recall the British bombing blah blah blah". Selective memory.

notabothonest · 4 years ago
> They were denied jobs and housing, the latter basically denying them a vote (see https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_man,_one_vote).

They were not "denied the vote". Read your own link. "However, unlike the situation in Great Britain, non-ratepayers did not have a vote in local government elections." - if you did not pay rates, you couldn't vote in local elections, but could still vote for Parliament.

Furthermore, from your link:

> the Parliament of Northern Ireland voted to update the voting rules for elections to the Northern Ireland House of Commons, which were implemented for the 1969 Northern Ireland general election, and for local government elections, which was done by the Electoral Law Act (Northern Ireland) 1969, passed on 25 November 1969.

So, the IRA campaign began after the voting situation was equalised, for rate payers and non rate payers alike, in 1969. And when the Stormont Parliament was abolished in 1972, the MPs for NI were elected using UK wide rules, which again, did not "basically deny them the vote".

Thus, the IRA campaign was not about civil rights. It was about forcibly pushing NI into the Republic of Ireland, against the wishes of the majority of the population.

> in a single event 745 People were injured (154 with gunshot wounds) and a 9 year old was killed.

And which "event" was this, because given the nonsense in the rest of your post, I'm betting that this didn't happen.

notabothonest commented on Nuclear is back on the table for a green future   nytimes.com/2022/06/15/bu... · Posted by u/gumby
redisman · 4 years ago
Controversial opinión: we should invest heavily into nuclear and renewables as they seem to synergize quite well
notabothonest · 4 years ago
I agree we should invest in both.

The issue comes when people think that renewables are a panacea, and we should start building renewables capacity where it doesn't even make sense. For example; wind power is great in and around the North Sea, but makes little sense in central and eastern Europe. Solar power is great in Spain, Portugal and Italy, but the ROI is very poor anywhere north of the Alps.

notabothonest commented on Nuclear is back on the table for a green future   nytimes.com/2022/06/15/bu... · Posted by u/gumby
photochemsyn · 4 years ago
Funny article in that it doesn't discuss lifecycle costs. A side-by-side comparison of the cost of grids powered by nuclear power plant relative to those powered by wind/solar/storage is what I'd expect to see from a 'paper of record' like the NYTimes.

Except in some specific cases (Finland, other Arctic regions with long periods of low sunlight) I'm pretty sure this cost comparison comes down firmly on the side of wind/solar/storage. Storage is the main cost barrier for 100% renewable-powered grids, but this is also an area where technological development is possible.

Much of the discussion of energy in the American media is pretty poor these days. For example, the solar tariff issue on China sourced PV - there are simply no US companies making panels of comparable quality (monocrystalline Si lasts longer and is more efficient). Concepts like requiring Chinese manufacturers to open factories in the USA if they want to sell in US markets would make sense but probably would violate some trade provision or other.

Another factor that this article should have mentioned is the reliability of the global uranium ore -> fuel rods supply chain. Costs vary significantly based on the purity of the ore (18% is the top, 0.1% is the economically viable limit) and like oil, uranium ore is not globally distributed (unlike sunlight and wind).

As far as Russia/Ukraine, the real agenda the US government seems to be pushing there is using that conflict to rapidly increase LNG exports to Europe from the US West/South coast, even though energy prices are spiking due to inflation (and plausibly due to exports of crude oil from the USA, allowed under that 2015 bill lifting that restriction). A far better plan for Europe would be to go 100% renewable asap, meaning no need for fossil fuel imports from any party. Yes, that's technologically possible, but would require massive economic investment.

notabothonest · 4 years ago
> Except in some specific cases (Finland, other Arctic regions with long periods of low sunlight) I'm pretty sure this cost comparison comes down firmly on the side of wind/solar/storage.

On what basis do you make this assertion?

Because when it comes to renewables, I very rarely see any inclusion of the costs of additional large scale energy storage (probably because it still remains an unsolved issue) and I never see any inclusion of the cost of new transmission lines from any new renewables site.

The Germans have invested billions upon billions in becoming wholly renewable, with miles of new grid infrastructure (but next to no energy storage) and they are still at the mercy of Russian gas supplies... and dependant upon French nuclear power.

It's time to face reality and start investing in fission again, at least until fusion becomes a viable alternative.

notabothonest commented on Cargo cult programming (2020)   blog.bitgloss.ro/2020/08/... · Posted by u/entanglement
justin_oaks · 5 years ago
Cargo culting is basically doing something you don't understand, hoping that it'll accomplish your goals.

Following this person's advice to not learn from blogs and articles, and instead only learn from books, sounds like cargo culting to me.

The source of the information doesn't matter. What matters is learning new concepts, knowing how to apply them, and understanding the reasons for applying them. You can learn that from anywhere: a book, a blog, a leprechaun, inspiration from above, something written on a cake, etc.

Edit: some of those may be better sources of information than the others, but I think you get my point.

notabothonest · 5 years ago
Agreed. According to the article, if I didn't write a factory class with the knowledge that it was described in the GoF book, then I'm cargo culting, regardless of whether I understand its value as a creational pattern or not. If I also wrote that class using TDD and have never read Kent Beck or Bob C. Martin, then I'm also cargo culting.
notabothonest commented on “Great resignation” wave coming for companies   axios.com/resignations-co... · Posted by u/samizdis
deevolution · 5 years ago
Actually just requested a 4 day work week for the same amount of money. Wish me luck! Seems reasonable to me tho, I can probably provide the same amount of value as if I worked 5 days a week - but who knows maybe they will just give me more work to do instead!
notabothonest · 5 years ago
Good luck! Now is the time to do it, and get it put into your contract. You have additional leverage as employers are panicked by stories of workers resigning en masse if not granted additional working from home time.

Don't fall for the "you can do more work because you're not commuting" line - if commuting is considered work time, then you deserve to be remunerated for that time, and they owe you back pay for each day you commuted in the past.

notabothonest commented on “Great resignation” wave coming for companies   axios.com/resignations-co... · Posted by u/samizdis
screye · 5 years ago
> Surveys show anywhere from 25% to upwards of 40% of workers are thinking about quitting their jobs.

This number is meaningless without previous year trends. In my circles, everyone from 25-35 is simultaneously preparing to FIRE and no-one that's 35+ has actually changed jobs despite being 'financially independent'. Expressing intent to resign, and actually resigning are completely different things. (edit: to clarify, I mean changing jobs specifically in the context of making inroads toward the retire early portion of their goal. Changing jobs to increase compensation is as strong as ever)

Real Translation: Covid has made people miserable in their jobs. The only way people can keep going is idle fantasies about a nondescript future date where this suffering ends.

> Workers have had more than a year to reconsider work-life balance or career paths

IMO, over the last year, people have only dived deeper into their delusions and relative sense of privilege. Suddenly, having good health insurance, WFH 'flexibility' and a stable jobs are now being viewed as things to be grateful about rather than the norm for well educated and employable adults.

> "Hopefully we’ll see a lot more people in 2022 employed and stable because they're in jobs they actually like," she says.

Press 'X' to Doubt

notabothonest · 5 years ago
Well, this is an ultra-cynical take on the article. It's also a little myopic in the sense that it assumes increased work flexibility must somehow have a high associated cost, such as loss of insurance, or lack of job stability. That just isn't the case.

Although I don't believe that we're about to enter some form of work/life balance utopia, just from my own circle of friends, big changes are inbound.

Firstly, many of us, including me, have for years been told that working from home more than a day a week was an impossibility, and that we should be grateful for that 1 day at all. Although frequently WFH days came with caveats, such as no Mon/Fri WFH, and there was the ever present threat of it being taken away.

Then, along comes the pandemic, and 'lo and behold, I've been working home for over a year without any issue. So have the bulk of the people I know, especially those in the technology sector. All of a sudden the dozens of arguments I have had with clients and employers over the years have all landed firmly on what I have been saying all along; we don't need to be in work every day, hell, we don't even need to be in work every week.

The cat is out of the bag now, and there isn't going to be putting it back in. A lot of the last year has been positive for many, including me. I've seen more of my own daughter in the past year than I've seen in the previous 7 years combined, and I've come to appreciate how important that has been to both of us. I'm not about to let that go without a fight.

notabothonest commented on Civilization Is Older Than We Thought   palladiummag.com/2021/05/... · Posted by u/throwkeep
mc32 · 5 years ago
How quickly did coastal areas get reclaimed by the seas? If it happened over centuries then it’s a slow creep and hardly a flood, though given geography, it’s likely some areas got reclaimed at accelerated rates. In any event we’d need some evidence before accepting that this was the genesis of the myths.
notabothonest · 5 years ago
It depends. It was not something that happened at a fixed rate. There were periods steady rise between 1 and 2.5m per century... but then you had events like the sudden flooding of the Black Sea area from the Med, or the Tsunami which finished off Doggerland - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doggerland#Disappearance - both of these events would have had human victims, and survivors, and must have been absolutely terrifying.
notabothonest commented on Civilization Is Older Than We Thought   palladiummag.com/2021/05/... · Posted by u/throwkeep
irrational · 5 years ago
That’s hardly a flood though. A flood is the village disappearing in day or two. Disappearing in a decade or two? I’m not sure what I would call that, but definitely not a flood.
notabothonest · 5 years ago
It's not necessarily a binary thing. You can have gradual sea level rise punctuated with rapid inundation events.

This is exactly what happened in the British Isles when low lying Doggerland (between modern England and Denmark) was wiped out by a wave which was likely caused by an underwater landslide; that wave was in turn caused by the melting ice at the end of the ice age, which was otherwise causing gradual sea level increase.

u/notabothonest

KarmaCake day34May 18, 2021View Original