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I suspect once Apple turns toward gen ai, all of its other advantages (infra, hw, instal base, services, etc) will propel it to forefront.
if Tim Cook wants $10 bln in new profits, he can simply pass some arbitrary judgement like "the next iPhone will only be compatible with new AirPods we will introduce at the same time" and everyone will comply
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but Grantham has also been declaring an imminent correction as long as I can remember, literally decades
you have to remember that these older analysts hail from another era...and it may be that in that era, our financial system was more "factual"...but you can't contextualize the world of 2023 (bullshit laden as it admittedly may be) by contrasting it with 1982...many of today's investors weren't even born
I don't make excuses for dumb decisions, but... someone said recently when the Fed taps the brakes someone always goes through the windshield. This was a far more extreme scenario than tapping the brakes on a car. More like the moon stopped. We all knew it could theoretically, and what do you know, it just stopped.
its no big deal to make a little bet based on that, but SVB seems to have bet the farm
had they even diversified their duration they would have been fine
This is because they fucked up their duration risk handling, no one held a gun to SVBs head and forced them to invest so heavily in long duration bonds. If they bought more short duration bonds none of this would be a problem. Other banks didn’t make this mistake. So why did they do it? Greed, or who knows, maybe it was plain old ignorance/hubris. Still, it was 100% avoidable. SVB fucked up bad and pointing blame at the fed is just not making them accountable.
Like fuck, who are these dumb chimps running this place. When I help my parents plan their retirement I looked at 100 years of history of what normal fluctuations are in the bond or stock market. Looking up data like that takes an hour and should make anyone with basic math skills realize rate and the bond fluctuations that follow at 100% bound to happen given enough time. It was just absolute amateur hour at SVB.
SVB wasn't even operating at the level of the typical individual investor!
the companies who can't fill their openings are places like Chipotle, McDs and Walmart
the places laying off are Google, Amazon, GM
really wish these talking heads would talk about SPECIFIC high quality jobs that can't be filled...don't pretend scrubbing a toilet at Burger King is a rung up the economic ladder for anyone