I thought web3 was supposed to be some kind of decentralized compute, where rather than run on your own hardware or IaaS/PaaS you could make use of compute resources that vary wildly day-to-day in availability, performance, and cost, because they were somehow also mining rigs or something? But it's "decentralized" because there's not one entity running the thing.
There is not a mention of that in the article.
Is it actually supposed to just be microtranscations paid with cryptocurrency? Where's the "decentralized" part of that?
Anyway, instead the best I can see this article seems to be talking about how it turns out people aren't using blockchain for buying things, and makes the (apparently) shocking conclusion "the one thing people always wanted: money that just works."
Stablecoins operate using decentralized ledgers on e.g. Ethereum which use decentralized compute. This isn't mentioned explicitly because the target audience knows this already.
Eh. To riff on Dijkstra, this is like submarine engineers saying their ultimate goal is to understand how fish swim.
Python and React may similarly be enshrined for the future, for being at the right place at the right time.
English as a language might be another example.
So what are the chances of randomly guessing a solution?
The toy Countdown dataset here has 3 to 4 numbers, which are combined with 4 symbols (+, -, x, ÷). With 3 numbers there are 3! * 4^3 = 384 possible symbol combinations, with 4 there are 6144. By the tensorboard log [0], even after just 10 learning steps, the model already has a success rate just below 10%. If we make the simplifying assumption that the model hasn't learned anything in 10 steps, then the probability of 1 (or more) success in 80 chances (8 generations are used per step), guessing randomly for a success rate of 1/384 on 3-number problems, is 1.9%. One interpretation is to take this as a p-value, and reject that the model's base success rate is completely random guessing - the base model already has slightly above chance success rate at solving the 3-number CountDown game.
This aligns with my intuition - I suspect that with proper prompting, LLMs should be able to solve CountDown decently OK without any training. Though maybe not a 3B model?
The model likely "parlays" its successes on 3 numbers to start to learn to solve 4 numbers. Or has it? The final learned ~50% success rate matches the frequency of 4-number problems in Jiayi Pan's CountDown dataset [1]. Phil does provide examples of successful 4-number solutions, but maybe the model hasn't become consistent at 4 numbers yet.
[0]: https://www.philschmid.de/static/blog/mini-deepseek-r1/tenso... [1]: https://huggingface.co/datasets/Jiayi-Pan/Countdown-Tasks-3t...
edit: ability without accountability is the catchier motto :)