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mxschumacher commented on Anthropic raises $30B in Series G funding at $380B post-money valuation   anthropic.com/news/anthro... · Posted by u/ryanhn
jaggirs · a month ago
Have you seen their revenue growth?
mxschumacher · a month ago
if the unit economics are broken (strong competition from other proprietary model providers + open weight models; LLM token race to the bottom) it's not clear how high revenue growth translates to high profits. These companies are valued like monopolists, but the competitive dynamics make them more akin to tomato sauce makers. I understand that the technology is pretty amazing and can lead to significant productivity gains, but from a business perspective, the question is how much of that value Antrophic and others can capture over time.
mxschumacher commented on Hyundai Introduces Its Next-Gen Atlas Robot at CES 2026 [video]   youtube.com/watch?v=9e0SQ... · Posted by u/surprisetalk
mxschumacher · 2 months ago
that's a very impressive demo, I have never seen a robot move so smoothly before.
mxschumacher commented on 2025 Letter   danwang.co/2025-letter/... · Posted by u/Amorymeltzer
mxschumacher · 2 months ago
My copy of Breakneck arrived a few days ago and I'm rushing through the book, hard to put down, highly recommended
mxschumacher commented on Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%   electrek.co/2025/12/29/te... · Posted by u/coloneltcb
abirch · 2 months ago
Not to mention China heavily subsidizing BYD.
mxschumacher · 2 months ago
there are around 140 EV companies in china competing very aggressively, they have excess capacity and are flooding the world market with cheap EVs, tough for Tesla to have a healthy margin in that environment
mxschumacher commented on Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%   electrek.co/2025/12/29/te... · Posted by u/coloneltcb
malfist · 2 months ago
And what evidence do you base those assumptions on? According to the journalists at electrek despite Tesla having capacity to manufacture 250k cybertrucks per year, they're only selling 20-25k per year
mxschumacher · 2 months ago
and SpaceX has been a major buyer of Cybertrucks
mxschumacher commented on Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%   electrek.co/2025/12/29/te... · Posted by u/coloneltcb
jedberg · 2 months ago
For comparison, GM brought in $1.3B on $48B.
mxschumacher · 2 months ago
and Tesla is valued at over 21x more than GM
mxschumacher commented on Tesla’s 4680 battery supply chain collapses as partner writes down deal by 99%   electrek.co/2025/12/29/te... · Posted by u/coloneltcb
andsoitis · 2 months ago
> I really don't understand those investors and how they price a struggling company so highly.

Struggling, not so much: '24/'25 revenue of just under $100B, with Q3'25 record profitability and deliveries yielding $1.5B net income. Strong liquidity and a current ratio of about 2, boosting short-term financial stability. Solid cash reserves and relatively low debt ratio.

High stock price: far exceeds that of traditional auto makers even though Tesla's revenue is significantly lower. High valuation reflects investor expectations of growth and future tech upside. Exuberant? Probably. OTOH, Tesla has delivered better ROI for investors than the other automakers.

mxschumacher · 2 months ago
there was a rush to buy electric cars in the US for as long as the $7500 incentive was in place, so the Q3 2025 number if inflated; it's a pull forward effect.

Sales have been flat for 3 years and the delivery numbers in Europe are catastrophic

on a fully diluted basis, the market cap is above $1.6tn, so at a PE of 20, they'd have to generate something like $80bn in profit per year - hard to do in an industry that is as brutally competitive and low margin as passenger cars.

mxschumacher commented on Is it a bubble?   oaktreecapital.com/insigh... · Posted by u/saigrandhi
9rx · 3 months ago
Bubbles occur when undue attention is directed towards something. When people are asking "are we in a bubble", there is no question that we are in a bubble. Nobody pays attention to things aligned to the fundamentals.

That doesn't mean there will be a crash, though. Not all bubbles pop.

mxschumacher · 3 months ago
what are some historical examples of bubbles that didn't pop?
mxschumacher commented on Is it a bubble?   oaktreecapital.com/insigh... · Posted by u/saigrandhi
mxschumacher · 3 months ago

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KarmaCake day4634September 19, 2016
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