Readit Newswhile i like this idea in theory, in practice the energy efficiency and lower electricity costs of newer hardware mean that in terms of both cost and environmental impact it would probably be better to recycle the old hardware and buy something new in most cases.
The US government will never let Boeing go bankrupt, the impact on their supply chain (specifically nuclear) would be too big. And Boeing know it.
This is completely false. For 2022 fiscal year revenue in commercial was $25B vs $23B for defense and losses in commercial were $2.3B vs $3.5B for defense.
https://www.boeing.com/resources/boeingdotcom/company/annual... (Page 58)
a really large company can waste hundreds of millions of dollars papering over the inherent deficiencies of the architecture but it is an exercise in building additional stories on a house where the ground floor is made out of cardboard that happens to be on fire. soa was created purely for business organization needs. any technical justifications are post hoc rationalization. from a technical perspective it is pure trash.
a much better architecture is to keep services but have them all built on top of a single monolithic db. at scale the monolithic db can be a facade and then you disaggregate the database into horizontally scalable services so that you can scale your monolithic db facade to whatever you need.
This is not correct. It may well be that the evidence existed but was lost.
The idea that biology will just sit around and wait until we catch up with it is fundamentally mistaken. Some things happen just once and that's that. Some things happen all the time and you can observe them as they happen. Some things leave ample evidence. Biology is not a static system, it isn't a computer program and it isn't a piece of hardware. Your 'bug' may simply not be reproducible even if it in fact did occur just once.
if the virus crossed over from animals to humans then it must be able to cross back over. viruses evolve quickly, but animals don't, and we have plenty of samples of the original virus. all you have to do is find the right species and infect them with a sample of the virus and show that they can spread it to prove natural origin.
the only scenario where your theory could be true is if the origin species suddenly went extinct after starting the pandemic, which is very improbable.
But: this doesn't prove or disprove either and just like in the discussion about that superconductor, there is absolutely no need to commit to either hypothesis even if there is a historical pile of evidence, because that's not proof that this case is the same.
So I would advice anybody that really wants to jump to a conclusion to do so with the historical data in mind and for everybody else to just wait until there is conclusive evidence with the caution that such evidence may never be found. Ironically, the Chinese moved with such speed against the market that they may very well have destroyed the evidence that would have proven that they weren't directly involved. At the same time there is some support for the theory that the market itself wasn't the place where 'patient zero' got infected, and that still doesn't prove or disprove a lab leak.
People love to have someone or something to blame when there is a big problem, and with natural disasters we sometimes are in fact able to show how humans are a direct or proximate cause. But biology is super messy and even if there is a human cause at work here we may never know it, likewise we may never know for sure that it was a zoonosis.
If I had to bet I would bet zoonosis because the stats are in favor. But I don't have to bet so I'll just wait. I do hope that anybody that favors one theory over another will come forward to admit that they were wrong to jump to conclusions if there ever is a resolution, and that they will learn something from that. But they won't be much more or less wrong than those that backed the other side. Finally: there are some viruses that are known to have jumped from the animal kingdom to people many times in the past and in spite of hunting them for decades we still haven't found the reservoir. It could happen again tomorrow and there might be a breakthrough, but so far there is nothing. So absence of evidence doesn't prove a thing.
a probability statement is not wrong just because the less probable thing turns out to happen. lab leak of a non-natural virus that was created through purposeful gain-of-function using transmission is currently the most likely scenario based on all available evidence. even if natural origin is proven, my probability statement will still be correct. i dont discount the probability of natural origin. it is just very unlikely now.
https://news.osu.edu/covid-19-virus-is-evolving-rapidly-in-w...
"Scientists collected 1,522 nasal swabs from free-ranging deer in 83 of the state’s 88 counties between November 2021 and March 2022. More than 10% of the samples were positive for the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and at least one positive case was found in 59% of the counties in which testing took place. Genomic analysis showed that at least 30 infections in deer had been introduced by humans – a figure that surprised the research team."
“And the evidence is growing that humans can get it from deer – which isn’t radically surprising. It’s probably not a one-way pipeline.”
Still, this doesn't disprove a lab leak; it proves something other than a lab leak is plausible.
of course it is plausible. a priori there is no reason why lab leak is more likely than natural origin. it just comes down to the evidence of what actually happened.
what you need to show natural origin is transmission in an animal population with an animal that can be linked to the outbreak location. that hasnt been found after 3 years of tremendous effort.
everyone associated with the wiv has millions of lives and trillions of dollars in damages on their heads if it was a lab leak so these people are definitely highly motivated to prove a natural origin. it has been 3+ years and nothing has been found. the more time that passes the less likely it becomes.
but finding an animal that can spread covid with a plausible story for how it cross over to humans in wuhan is a threshold that has not been crossed yet. if anyone could meet that threshold test it would be treated as proof of natural origin.
but supposing that it was a natural virus that came from an animal in the lab at wuhan then it would be very easy for people with access to that information to identify the natural source, and since that has not happened, it means the virus is either from a natural source that was not in the lab, or it was created in the lab.
the longer time that passes without finding a natural source outside the lab the more likely it is that it was created in the lab.
The relative scale on visits here doesn't make any sense: TikTok 306M, Facebook 90M, Twitter 759K, Instagram 749K.
This seems like marketing for a snake-oil bot detection product masquerading as a political hit piece to get attention.