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linearithmic commented on     · Posted by u/linearithmic
linearithmic · a month ago
Remote work buys time for housing reform.
linearithmic commented on Forecasting's Transition from Art to Science   abstraction.substack.com/... · Posted by u/linearithmic
linearithmic · 2 months ago
forecasting bots will transform the field
linearithmic commented on You Don't Own Your Reputation   abstraction.substack.com/... · Posted by u/linearithmic
the_decider · 4 months ago
Interesting example use-case of sharing encoding Airbnb reputation on the blockchain to be shared across competing services. There remains a question however of how to get buy-in from those competing businesses to integrate their website or app in order to display that decentralized reputation information. Though in theory, one could encode the address of the short-term rental or house to be easily accessible on the blockchain.
linearithmic · 4 months ago
Yes, great comment. Getting adoption will be a challenge (although the concept might appeal to fledgling applications).
linearithmic commented on You Don't Own Your Reputation   abstraction.substack.com/... · Posted by u/linearithmic
linearithmic · 4 months ago
it’s not a technical limitation, it’s a business model
linearithmic commented on Dangers of Recommender Systems – Ivan Vendrov   blog.sentinel-team.org/p/... · Posted by u/NunoSempere
linearithmic · 6 months ago
I found the argument of the counterfactual to be persuasive. Do you have a sense of how much of the time would people actually be doing something better with the extra bandwidth?
linearithmic commented on Global Risks Weekly Roundup #22/2025   blog.sentinel-team.org/p/... · Posted by u/NunoSempere
NunoSempere · 9 months ago
I did briefly look into how much the estimated $7B was as a proportion of GDP: 7B/2T = 0.35% of GDP, which feels like a lot. For 41 planes it'd be $170M per plane, which seems reasonable when compared to US bombers, but unclear for Russian ones, but my guess is it's not too far off. This source (https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20250601-ukraine-says-it-...) says $2B for the planes alone, but then you also had the airbases &c, and maybe a submarine base <https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/major-explosion-hits-russian...>. I'd still expect it to be a bit exaggerated for propaganda effects, but it does seem reasonable all in all.
linearithmic · 9 months ago
Possible, but seems high to me. I'm not sure if those planes were really destroyed or just damaged. My knee-jerk estimate would be somewhere in the hundreds of millions. Still a very successful operation by Ukraine though.
linearithmic commented on Global Risks Weekly Roundup #22/2025   blog.sentinel-team.org/p/... · Posted by u/NunoSempere
NunoSempere · 9 months ago
This is a weekly brief looking at what the most important risks and precursors of global catastrophic risks are each week. To do this, we parse millions of news pieces a week and discuss the most urgent ones with elite forecasters to find out.
linearithmic · 9 months ago
I'd be curious about forecaster estimates of monetary damages from the drone strikes.

u/linearithmic

KarmaCake day37March 12, 2017View Original