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I mean, more or less, but you see what I'm getting at.
I'm glad you enjoyed the paper :)
I think an additional table/graph of how large-bet performance vs small-bet performance would be interesting in general, as well as broken out by market type.
It kinda answers of the question: Are large bets equal to smart money? or are they equal in "smartness" to small bets?
i didn't filter for manipulation specifically, but i did find that politics was actually one of the most efficient categories (only ~1% maker/taker gap), suggesting the market absorbs those flows pretty well.
I confess I'm surprised by that result in particular. I realize your results are for Kalshi, but ISTR some reports from the presidential elections on Polymarket.
But more generally: When you say there is "only a ~1% maker/taker gap", is that weighted by the size of the bets? or is it averaged over the number of bets placed?
In any case: Thanks for a very interesting paper!
So it would be interesting to measure the inefficiencies of various bets vs the total market value in that bet.
e: Although full disclosure, I did not pick apart the entire paper. Maybe it's buried in there.
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Edit: Or better still, convince all of their customers to throw away perfectly good hardware and upgrade to one with a single extra chip, creating a hazardous waste epidemic for landfills as a nice side effect. It's especially important to do this in the middle of a RAM and HDD shortage.
Really, I'll just never be half the great business strategist that these guys are. <sigh>
Maybe you all knew that factoid already, but I learned the name of shape only recently.
Although I have to admit: The combination of AI and required new hardware has been a nice boost for switching to Linux.