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iforgetti commented on Klarna changes its AI tune and again recruits humans for customer service   customerexperiencedive.co... · Posted by u/elsewhen
gregdoesit · 10 months ago
Either Klarna is really good at pulling strings to get media coverage, or mainstream media does not fact checking themselves. About a year ago, the company was everywhere in the media when its CEO announced that it created an AI bot that is doing the equivalent of 700 fulltime customer service folks.

I did what seemingly no other publication reporting on it did: signed up for Klarna, bought one item and used this bot.

I was... not impressed?

Klarna's "AI bot" felt like the "L1 support flow" that every other company already has in-place: without AI! Think like when you have a problem with your UberEats order and 80% of cases are resolved without a human interaction (e.g. when an item is missing for your item.)

I walked through the bot's capabilities [1] and my conclusion was that pretty much every other company did this before (automating the obvious support cases.) The real question should have been: why did Klarna not do it before? And when it did, why did it build a wonky AI bot, instead of more intuitive workflows than other companies did?

My sense is that Klarna really wants to be seen as an "AI-first tech company" when it goes public, and not a "buy now pay later loan company" because AI companies have higher valuations even with the same revenue. But at its core, Klarna is a finance or ecommerce-related company: an not much to do with AI (even if it uses AI tools to make its business more efficient - regardless of whether it could use non-AI tools to get the same thing done)

[1] https://blog.pragmaticengineer.com/klarnas-ai-chatbot/

iforgetti · 10 months ago
Glen Okun of NYU business school has written about BNPL loan portfolio weakness.

The AI marketing is just an attempt to reframe the value narrative of the company before IPO. They would rather be seen as an AI company than an unsecured lender of last resort.

The narrative on Klarna’s core business is not good in any case, either an extractive lender benefiting from people buying what they may not afford and charging exorbitant interest or a lender of last resort who has not properly underwritten the risk in their portfolio. Neither is preferential to them compared to a value narrative framing them as an AI company. Likely the market is too skeptical in this environment to take the bait however.

iforgetti commented on A Perspective on Ukraine   lcamtuf.substack.com/p/a-... · Posted by u/0xDEF
iforgetti · 3 years ago
The author (who grew up in Poland while it was a puppet state of the USSR) offers examples literally in the same paragraph that you quoted. The full paragraph is:

Russia’s expansionist policy, on the other hand, continues to cast a long shadow across Europe. The country has a long history of conquest, but for centuries, its vast dominion resembled a loose federation of fiefdoms, not a single state; it wasn’t until the emergence of the USSR that a cohesive national identity — along with a renewed focus on global expansion — started to take hold. Through various machinations, the USSR soon ended up annexing Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania; and seizing military and political control of Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, and other neighboring states. For decades, the residents of these lands suffered repression and economic hardships — and were barred from leaving the Soviet-controlled world.

iforgetti commented on Federal Reserve lent $300B in emergency funds to banks in the past week   pbs.org/newshour/economy/... · Posted by u/halabarouma
HDThoreaun · 3 years ago
I think you misunderstand what is happening here. It's not free money, it has a 4.7% interest rate. Taking this loan and using it to buy bonds would just be transferring .1% of the loan value to the fed as the bonds would pay out less than the banks owe.
iforgetti · 3 years ago
They may be collateralized by bonds worth even less than that.

If the bonds were worth 80 cents on the dollar than they just traded 80 cents on the dollar for 99.9 cents on the dollar. A good deal if your balance sheet is in such poor shape.

iforgetti commented on Federal Reserve lent $300B in emergency funds to banks in the past week   pbs.org/newshour/economy/... · Posted by u/halabarouma
HDThoreaun · 3 years ago
The interest rate on the loans is .1% higher than the 3 month T bills which is all they can get before the loan comes due. They would lose money with this strategy.
iforgetti · 3 years ago
But if they are using bonds which the fed has valued at face value rather than market value as collateral then this is still effectively free money.

They are only losing .1% of bond value instead of the difference between face and market value.

iforgetti commented on Federal Reserve lent $300B in emergency funds to banks in the past week   pbs.org/newshour/economy/... · Posted by u/halabarouma
arthurcolle · 3 years ago
Can you explain the steps that you're thinking and explain why they would matter at this scale?
iforgetti · 3 years ago
A bond bought by a bank in the past at a lower interest rate than those offered today is worth less than those offered today.

If the fed values those bonds at face value (rather than what the market would pay today) and allows the bank to borrow money using those as collateral, then a bank could simply borrow from the fed using the older less valuable bonds as collateral and then buy new more valuable bonds.

The bank could then default on the loan and forfeit the original less valuable bond.

This would effectively be the fed giving free money to the bank.

iforgetti commented on The plateauing of cognitive ability among top earners   academic.oup.com/esr/adva... · Posted by u/luu
13of40 · 3 years ago
There's a lot of truth in this. Some of the most classically brilliant people I went to school with ended up being homeless drug addicts or shut-ins. Meanwhile, the unassuming Ukrainian guy who built my deck is a secret multi-millionaire from his house flipping business. You can walk around the neighborhood and pick out the houses he's remodeled and modernized because they look so much better than the ones on either side.
iforgetti · 3 years ago
There is a book about this called “The Millionaire Next Door” that may be of interest to people looking to build wealth this way.
iforgetti commented on U.S. to spend $1.5B to jumpstart alternatives to Huawei   axios.com/2022/12/07/huaw... · Posted by u/signa11
readonthegoapp · 3 years ago
austrian school guy? like von mises? one of the early neoliberals?

i went thru a bunch of that 20 years ago after stumbling on antiwar.com.

i think hayek and i prob have diff views on how to use state power.

https://chomsky.info/20210916/

  Friedrich Hayek, the moral leader of neoliberalism, visited and said he was impressed by the freedom under Augusto Pinochet and said he couldn’t find a single person in Chile who didn’t think there was more freedom under the Pinochet dictatorship than under Allende. Somehow he couldn’t hear the cries of anguish from Via Grimaldi and other torture chambers.
that guy?

iforgetti · 3 years ago
Yep that guy, except I suggest reading his actual work instead of basing your thinking on what someone else thought he thought.
iforgetti commented on U.S. to spend $1.5B to jumpstart alternatives to Huawei   axios.com/2022/12/07/huaw... · Posted by u/signa11
readonthegoapp · 3 years ago
i would guess there's still a large majority of americans, esp in the intellectual/managerial/upper classes, who believed and still believe all the 'free trade' stuff -- the dynamism and creative energy of capitalism, etc.

if i had to put a number on it, prob 95% of people in the upper 10% of income/wealth in america believe all the standard myths about capitalism and free trade and competive advantage, etc. and 99% of VC-types.

chomsky always says how the countries that do best mimic what we do instead of what we tell them to do.

there's a reason people like matt y and ezra k and myriad others get so highly paid -- they have to write and speak complete nonsense on a daily basis. they prob even believe what they're saying sometimes. how could they not? the cognitive disonance would be too much for anyone.

iforgetti · 3 years ago
I recommend reading some of the original economic theory that undermines the “Chicago School” free market thinking of Milton Friedman and others who it seems you are so fed up with.

One good place to start might be the work of Friedrich Hayek.

If you are like me, you might start to have a more nuanced view than “It’s not true!!”.

Hayek for example despite being in many ways the father of this work was very explicit about the role of government and the many areas he considered government intervention essential.

iforgetti commented on Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade   fortune.com/2022/09/15/st... · Posted by u/RadixDLT
bart_spoon · 3 years ago
Isn't this just the gambler's fallacy? Yes, markets over a given period of time will likely conform to a particular distribution of performance, with some below-average periods and above-average periods that average out. But that does not mean that if there is an extended time period of terrible performance now, X years from there is likely to be a very strong rebound to compensate.
iforgetti · 3 years ago
What you wrote is true about the performance of the underlying businesses but not necessarily true about an investment.

Stock performance (and any investment) is driven by both cost of purchase and underlying performance. Cost is driven by human psychology as much or more than business fundamentals.

As a result, poor stock performance is in some way an indicator of future improved investment performance because it corresponds with lower purchase price but as you note, deterioration of economic performance is absolutely not an indicator of improved future economic performance.

iforgetti commented on Stanley Druckenmiller warns the stock market will be ‘flat’ for an entire decade   fortune.com/2022/09/15/st... · Posted by u/RadixDLT
jrochkind1 · 3 years ago
How do you figure?

I was thinking the opposite: that the model of saving for retirement via investment accounts requires good returns in the early part of your career, so the smaller amounts of money you can afford to put away for your relatively smaller early career salary can compound over your career length to be enough for retirement.

iforgetti · 3 years ago
What others wrote was pretty much my reasoning but a bit further, over the very long run (30+ years) markets will revert to mean performance. If you have strong gains in the first half of your career then when you are in your peak earning years, investments will be more expensive at time of purchase. As a result when you are investing the most, returns on that principle will be lower.

u/iforgetti

KarmaCake day125December 17, 2020View Original