I've recently come to the opposite conclusion. I’ve started to feel in the last couple of weeks that we’ve hit an inflection point with these LLM-based models that can reason. Things seem different. It’s like we can feel the takeoff.
My mind has changed. Up until last week, I believed that superhuman AI would require explicit symbolic knowledge, but as I work with these “thinking” models like Gemini 2.0 Flash Thinking, I see that they can break problems down and work step-by-step.
We still have a long way to go. AI will need (possibly simulated) bodies to fully understand our experience, and we need to train them starting with simple concepts just like we do with children, but we may not need any big conceptual breakthroughs to get there. I’m not worried about the AI takeover—they don’t have a sense of self that must be preserved because they were made by design instead of by evolution as we were—but things are moving faster than I expected. It’s a fascinating time to be living.
People who are selling something always do. So what are you selling?
Edit: Having been around for a while I’ve learned to appreciate PMs. You have to be very careful what you say in front of customers or focus groups. If you had two engineers and one customer chatting unsupervised it would turn into a brainstorming session, and after 45 minutes we’re building a flying police box that can travel through time.