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greenie_beans commented on How private equity is changing housing   theatlantic.com/ideas/202... · Posted by u/harambae
gruez · 5 days ago
Switch from "national level" tab to "metro level", and select los angeles for an extreme example. Look at the the figures right of the map, that says "share of SFD units build before 1980 with a land share of" and compare the figures between 2012 and 2024. Just by eyeballing the percentages, it looks like the land share went from 50-60% to 70-80%. This is confirmed if you sum up the figures in a spreadsheet, you go from an average share of 51% to 72%.

You can compare this to overall housing prices in the LA area[1], prices in 2024 is 262.7% of 2012 prices. Suppose you have a $100k house in 2012, that will worth $262k in 2024, an appreciation of $162k. Using the land value percentages above, the land value of the houses are $51k and $188k respectively, an appreciation of $137k. That means 85% of the appreciation was in land, not because building materials got more expensive or whatever.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LXXRSA

greenie_beans · 4 days ago
interesting. what about a timeframe that doesn't occur with a period of extremely low interest rates like your 2012 - 2024 time range?
greenie_beans commented on How private equity is changing housing   theatlantic.com/ideas/202... · Posted by u/harambae
postflopclarity · 4 days ago
market has plenty of appetite but it's muzzled by selfish and short-sighted NIMBYs
greenie_beans · 4 days ago
exactly wrong based on my argument. did NIMBYs cause the dramatic drop in building after the great financial crisis? (no)
greenie_beans commented on How private equity is changing housing   theatlantic.com/ideas/202... · Posted by u/harambae
gruez · 5 days ago
>this sounds nice, but neglects the fact that (1) materials cost has gone up

That's a red herring because most of the price increase comes from increase in land prices.

https://www.aei.org/housing/land-price-indicators/

greenie_beans · 5 days ago
can you please explain how these graphics are supposed to support your argument? it's not clear to me and i'm trying to understand the georgist POV.

nonetheless, materials and the cost of labor are the most significant costs for new buildings. not land, taxes, or zoning regulations. here is one example where this is a fact: www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2024-05-23/uvm-halts-student-housing-project-construction-costs-workforce-shortage

greenie_beans commented on How private equity is changing housing   theatlantic.com/ideas/202... · Posted by u/harambae
quamserena · 5 days ago
this sounds nice, but neglects the fact that (1) materials cost has gone up and (2) zoning requirements exist. (1) means its just more expensive to build overall, and (2) means that a lot of proposals for apartment complexes get voted down.
greenie_beans · 5 days ago
also neglects the market's appetite for this risk of building in the current environment, which is the biggest problem. market gonna act like a market
greenie_beans commented on Where are you supposed to go if you don't care about growth?   ramones.dev/posts/where-a... · Posted by u/ramon156
puika · 5 days ago
government jobs or at state-owned companies might be your only choice.

Or maybe landing on a lucky spot of a run of the mill consultancy company where you're left at god's will until you retire. Their attrition is so high layoffs are rare, at least where I live (YMMV)

greenie_beans · 5 days ago
have worked government-adjacent for like 5 years now and don't recommend that if you care about the people or serving (which most gov't folks do).

find a boring corporation where you can slack. corporations are a great home for slackers.

greenie_beans commented on Where are you supposed to go if you don't care about growth?   ramones.dev/posts/where-a... · Posted by u/ramon156
bolangi · 5 days ago
Kurt Vonnegut wrote that an aspiring writer should take any writing job he or she can get. A hack job will at least keep the creative wheels turning. I think the same applies to software development jobs. Take one where you can learn something, hone your chops. Doesn't have to be your passion, because turning an abstract conception into working software is intrinsically satisfying to someone who appreciates that particular form of magic.

Do your own projects on the side and keep your antenna peeled for other opportunities more in line with your own life goals.

greenie_beans · 5 days ago
he also famously quit his writing job so he could work on his writing art more

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greenie_beans commented on IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off   businessinsider.com/ibm-c... · Posted by u/nabla9
arisAlexis · 11 days ago
I suggest you read Amodei post called "machines of loving grace". It will change your worldview (probably).
greenie_beans · 11 days ago
as a counterpoint, you should read this essay with the same title: https://www.clunyjournal.com/p/machines-of-loving-grace
greenie_beans commented on High-income job losses are cooling housing demand   jbrec.com/insights/job-gr... · Posted by u/gmays
iaw · 13 days ago
This is a weird take. I get the desire to house people but someone choosing to rent rather than sell a home they own is not the crux of the issue. When there are corporations keeping swaths of housing empty to raise rent rates the real issue is market manipulation not small participants.
greenie_beans · 12 days ago
it's def not the crux of the issue, never said that. it's a dynamic of the market though

> When there are corporations keeping swaths of housing empty to raise rent rates the real issue is market manipulation not small participants.

curious where this is happening? would love to learn about that.

greenie_beans commented on I designed and printed a custom nose guard to help my dog with DLE   snoutcover.com/billie-sto... · Posted by u/ragswag
greenie_beans · 12 days ago
cool. i wish okie had been diagnosed with DLE :(

u/greenie_beans

KarmaCake day3156October 26, 2018View Original