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ghjnut commented on OpenAI claims gold-medal performance at IMO 2025   twitter.com/alexwei_/stat... · Posted by u/Davidzheng
tedsanders · 2 months ago
Interestingly, this is actually a question that's been looked at empirically!

Take a look at this paper: https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rzeckhauser/files/value_of...

They took high-precision forecasts from a forecasting tournament and rounded them to coarser buckets (nearest 5%, nearest 10%, nearest 33%), to see if the precision was actually conveying any real information. What they found is that if you rounded the forecasts of expert forecasters, Brier scores got consistently worse, suggesting that expert forecast precision at the 5% level is still conveying useful, if noisy, information. They also found that less expert forecasters took less of a hit from rounding their forecasts, which makes sense.

It's a really interesting paper, and they recommend that foreign policy analysts try to increase precision rather than retreating to lumpy buckets like "likely" or "unlikely".

Based on this, it seems totally reasonable for a rationalist to make guesses with single digit precision, and I don't think it's really worth criticizing.

ghjnut · 2 months ago
Aim small, miss small?
ghjnut commented on It's rude to show AI output to people   distantprovince.by/posts/... · Posted by u/distantprovince
gharper · 2 months ago
It’s the conversational equivalent of “Let me google that for you”.
ghjnut · 2 months ago
It is, which I'd argue has a time and a place. Maybe it's more specific to how I cut my teeth in the industry but as programmer whenever I had to ask a question of e.g the ops team, I'd make sure it was clear I'd made an effort to figure out my problem. Here's how I understand the issue, here's what I tried yadda yadda.

Now I'm the 40-year-old ops guy fielding those questions. I'll write up an LLM question emphasizing what they should be focused on, I'll verify the response is in sync with my thoughts, and shoot it to them.

It seems less passive aggressive than LMGTFY and sometimes I learn something from the response.

Dead Comment

ghjnut commented on Show HN: Ractor – a Rust-based actor framework with clusters and supervisors   github.com/slawlor/ractor... · Posted by u/snowboarder63
Traubenfuchs · 3 years ago
Is there any resource that can help me properly understand the actor model and make an informed decision on whether it's something everyone should have in their toolbelt or just another technology like blockchain, in search of non-scam usecases with mainstream appeal?
ghjnut · 3 years ago
Carl Hewitt has been championing it for a while https://arxiv.org/abs/1008.1459https://youtu.be/7erJ1DV_Tlo
ghjnut commented on A Universal Cancer Treatment?   nautil.us/a-universal-can... · Posted by u/WithinReason
borbulon · 3 years ago
As a person who currently has stage IV NSCLC, I can add some context to this:

YMMV.

One thing to remember is that "Lung Cancer" is not just one thing. There are mutations of different genes, there are overexpressions of different genes. Each one has its own new medicines. Also, some peoples' cancers are more aggressive than others, and while for many they can find the right drug, for some nothing works.

Keytruda works wonders for some. It did not for me. I had 4 treatments of the CPP (carboplatin, pemetrexed, and pembrolizumab) triad, which had some success. They then put you on "maintenance," which is the PP without the carboplatin (which is the really old school platinum-based chemo). Maintenance did nothing for me. My main tumor grew more than 50% in 2 months.

Last summer I started 9 months on a chemo/immuno that was geared towards my specific mutation. It actually did wonders. It resulted in a 98% shrinkage of my main tumor before I ended up with pneumonitis from it and had to stop. But I've been able to be off treatment for the entire summer. I know there are others who have tried this, and it didn't work.

So yeah, I'm really, really glad your relative was able to get some relief from the Keytruda. But I also wish it were the wonder cure for everyone that it was for them.

ghjnut · 3 years ago
I was diagnosed with stage III NSCLC February '21. Radiation, chemo, and a bilobectomy. I had the ALK+ morphology which meant I wasn't a candidate for immunotherapy but I've been on alectinib since my surgery in June '21 with no signs of recurrence so far.

The process is grueling in hindsight, but I'm glad to hear you're getting results. At first I would have said "if this is going to kill me, make it sooner rather than later" to avoid a drawn-out painful experience, but I'm starting to appreciate what the buying time really means. It's hard with all that's going on but get your head straight and make sure you enjoy it.

Keep on keeping on.

ghjnut commented on I've started using Firefox and can never go back to Chrome   techradar.com/in/features... · Posted by u/p4bl0
rraghur · 3 years ago
You'll have to pry Firefox from my cold, dead hands!

At the outset, yes, chromium based browsers feel snappier..

But, stuff that Chrome will not have and are absolutely essential

1. Containers... I use another unverified extension to match urls and automatically assign containers...

2. Ublock origin

3. Tree style tabs

4. Developer console... Edit and resend any request

That said, i still end up using chromium for teams and outlook 365 (pwa install feature is nice)... But that's only because i don't have any other options with those two

ghjnut · 3 years ago
Which container extension are you using for domain grouping? I've been looking for a good one
ghjnut commented on SSH Bastion Host Best Practices   goteleport.com/blog/secur... · Posted by u/old-gregg
tptacek · 4 years ago
Yes, you would still have people connect to the bastion if they're on the VPN; part of the point of a bastion is to have a central place to monitor and control SSH access, which a VPN doesn't really do for you. Additionally, you will inevitably end up with team members who need access to the VPN (to reach staging and test versions of your applications, or to access customer support consoles) but don't get SSH access; a bastion gives you a standard configuration to apply to your fleet to ensure that "on the VPN" doesn't ever equate to "can log into a server".

You should generally do both things.

Wait, I should word that better. You should generally have both sets of controls: network access control with a VPN, and fine-grained, auditable SSH-level access control. I don't love the "Linux shell server" approach to providing those SSH controls.

ghjnut · 4 years ago
Thanks for the response, that clears things up quite a bit. Would you create jump-boxes per environment or do you generally just have 1 with all the different service/env access logic?
ghjnut commented on SSH Bastion Host Best Practices   goteleport.com/blog/secur... · Posted by u/old-gregg
ghjnut · 4 years ago
Could someone do me a solid and explain best security practices around bastion hosts and vpn?

e.g. - would you still require users connected to the vpn to go through a bastion host? - would you ever run bastion/vpn through the same box? - are there preferred access use cases for each?

ghjnut commented on Pegasus vs. Predator   citizenlab.ca/2021/12/peg... · Posted by u/KarlKemp
Closi · 4 years ago
It seems like most of these targeted attacks reported on HN are iOS - what’s the reason for this?

The complexity and level of some of these attacks makes it unlikely that the companies couldn’t get into android devices too, so is it just the prevalence of iOS amongst the targets?

Or is it because Google is more friendly to government information requests that means attacks like this aren’t required?

Or is it because android is genuinely that much more secure? Or something else? Would be genuinely interested to know!

ghjnut · 4 years ago
If you'd read through to section 3.1 you'll see that they detail the iOS and Android bootstrap mechanisms. The title doesn't specifically identify which OS was infiltrated though in this case it was iOS.

I'm guessing the reason why iOS exploits receive more face-time is: 1. Apple has advertised their phones as being at the forefront of security, which holds some merit. 2. iPhones have become commonplace among government employess (possibly as a result of point 1). Political exploits are inevitably more in the public eye if it's the tool of most politicians.

It's the same concept as the early days of Microsoft being the powerhouse of consumer operating systems- everyone was using it making it the most lucrative to exploit.

ghjnut commented on Lung cancer in never-smokers: a hidden disease (2019)   journals.sagepub.com/doi/... · Posted by u/YeGoblynQueenne
rootbear · 4 years ago
My sister (age 67) was diagnosed with exactly this a year ago, except she's stage 4. She's on Alecensa (alectinib) and is doing well, all things considered. Her left lung doesn't work very well, but she's dealing with it. Her cancer isn't localized, so surgery isn't an option. She did have radiation therapy on one tumor.

Alecensa is freaking expensive. Even with Medicare, it's costing her about $10,000 a year in deductibles and copays.

I wish you all the best for your treatments.

ghjnut · 4 years ago
That's actually better than I heard. Since ALK is more generally rare biomarker (as opposed to EGFR) more of the drugs are still in trial. I asked an oncologist friend about costs and she said $11,000/month.

u/ghjnut

KarmaCake day220July 29, 2015View Original