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gfodor commented on OpenAI Is Just Another Boring, Desperate AI Startup   wheresyoured.at/sora2-ope... · Posted by u/speckx
saubeidl · 3 months ago
The angle currently is the opposite. They're positing that the machine has some sort of spirit - see the other poster talking about "unexplained emergent intelligence".
gfodor · 2 months ago
Saying we don’t understand why LLMs are intelligent is both true and completely unrelated to religion. You inserted the word “spirit” so perhaps you are the one conflating the two.
gfodor commented on OpenAI Is Just Another Boring, Desperate AI Startup   wheresyoured.at/sora2-ope... · Posted by u/speckx
B56b · 3 months ago
Pretty obvious that your opinions have "nothing to do with the financials".
gfodor · 3 months ago
Correct, my opinions have nothing to do with financials. If I was around for the discovery of fire I wouldn’t be wondering about the impact on the bottom line.
gfodor commented on OpenAI Is Just Another Boring, Desperate AI Startup   wheresyoured.at/sora2-ope... · Posted by u/speckx
saubeidl · 3 months ago
We don't know how acetaminophen works exactly either, but it's still just a really good tool...
gfodor · 3 months ago
If Acetaminophen started exhibiting signs of human level intelligence I would have a similar perspective
gfodor commented on OpenAI Is Just Another Boring, Desperate AI Startup   wheresyoured.at/sora2-ope... · Posted by u/speckx
saubeidl · 3 months ago
That pseudo-religious angle that seems to have infected a lot of the tech industry is part of what "doomers" like myself or Zitron criticise.

It is just a really good tool. And that's fine. Really good tools are awesome!

But they're not AGI - which is basically the tech-religious equivalent to the Second Coming of Christ and about as real.

The fear isn't about the practicability of the tool. It's about the mania caused by the religious component.

gfodor · 3 months ago
It’s not a religious angle, we literally don’t know how or why these models work.

Yes we know how to grow them, but we don’t know what is actually going on inside of them. This is why Anthropic’s CEO wrote the post he did about the need for massive investment in interpretability.

It should rattle you that deep learning has these emergent capabilities. I don’t see any reason to think we will see another winter.

gfodor commented on OpenAI Is Just Another Boring, Desperate AI Startup   wheresyoured.at/sora2-ope... · Posted by u/speckx
jstanley · 3 months ago
Ah, this time it's different. Understood.

(To be clear, I do agree that AI is going to drastically change the world, but I don't agree that that means the economics of it magically make sense. The internet drastically changed the world but we still had a dotcom bubble.)

gfodor · 3 months ago
Yep, this time it’s different.
gfodor commented on OpenAI Is Just Another Boring, Desperate AI Startup   wheresyoured.at/sora2-ope... · Posted by u/speckx
jstanley · 3 months ago
So, wait, you're saying that these guys just aren't impressed by the AI technology, and that is blinding them to the fact that the AI companies' economics look really good?

That is a laughable take.

The AI technology is very very impressive. But that doesn't mean you can recover the hundreds of billions of dollars that you invested in it.

World-changing new technology excites everyone and leads to overinvestment. It's a tale as old as time.

gfodor · 3 months ago
I’m saying that seeing dubious economics is blinding people from accepting what’s actually going on with neural networks, and it leads to them having a profoundly miscalibrated mental model. This is not like analyzing a typical tech cycle. We are dealing with something here that we don’t really understand and transcends basic models like “it’s just a really good tool.”
gfodor commented on OpenAI Is Just Another Boring, Desperate AI Startup   wheresyoured.at/sora2-ope... · Posted by u/speckx
jennyholzer · 3 months ago
I buy it. I perceive you and people who talk like you (read: LLM Boosters) as literal cult members.
gfodor · 3 months ago
Yeah, I know. It’s weird to admit this kind of obvious error in public though, speaks to a very big epistemological hole on your part.

u/gfodor

KarmaCake day18866December 22, 2008
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