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fuoqi commented on Data breach: DOGE 'accidentally' leaked the whole Social Security database [pdf]   storage.courtlistener.com... · Posted by u/chirau
fuoqi · 5 days ago
Hopefully, it will result in finally dropping use of SSNs as "secret" identifying person's identity and instead it will become an opaque ID which is safe to share.
fuoqi commented on UK offshore wind prices come in 40% cheaper than gas in record auction   electrek.co/2026/01/14/uk... · Posted by u/doener
nothrabannosir · a month ago
> Trying to change consumption habits (like smart grids, dynamic pricing, etc.) works poorly, especially for such vital resource as electricity.

Why? Has the UK started trying recently? When I lived there nobody gave a hoot about fluctuating prices. It would have been hard to even know when electricity was expensive or not. Has it changed?

Meanwhile >three decades ago my grandparents in rural France had a big red lamp on the kitchen wall that would light up when energy was expensive. It was a part of their life and they had no problem with it. They chose that plan deliberately because it ended up cheaper.

If you’re saying that even with adaptive behavior , it’s all a wash because the constant cost of peakers is so high that you lose all savings when they kick in , no matter how little you use; ok, I believe you did the math.

But if the claim is “it’s impossible for humans to adapt their energy consumption depending on the current price of electricity”, I have seen first hand that is not true. For sure when I lived in Britain nobody did this at all, but that would be at best a British limitation, not a human one.

fuoqi · a month ago
This does not work at scale. Sure, there is plenty of anecdotes how you can successfully play this game as a consumer living in a rural house with electric car, power wall, and rooftop solar, but try to telling about it to someone living in a high-rise apartment or to a heavy industry business. Your preaching will fall on deaf ears.

IIRC there are several utilities in the UK which provide option to price electricity dynamically, but they are not popular because people do not want to play this game. They want reliable supply of electricity for reasonable prices. Trying to mold consumption to satisfy intermittency of generation is nothing more than shifting the externality akin to telling people "you must plant trees to offset CO2 emissions!".

fuoqi commented on UK offshore wind prices come in 40% cheaper than gas in record auction   electrek.co/2026/01/14/uk... · Posted by u/doener
fuoqi · a month ago
1) Introduce a lot of intermittent generation into energy grid without sufficient amount of storage capacity.

2) Use marginal pricing model which effectively guarantees windfall profits for those sources.

3) Utilization of peaking power plants falls, but you still have to keep them because there is not enough storage capacity.

4) Peaking power plants rise generation costs to offset the lower utilization, further adding to the windfall profits.

5) You need more grid capacity to handle energy transfers from distributed generation sources.

5) ????

6) Act surprised when people loudly complain about electricity bills despite abundant "cheap" generation.

Intermittency of generation is an externality (same as CO2 emissions) and should be priced accordingly. People are willing to pay premium for supply stability, but the current pricing model does no account for that. Trying to change consumption habits (like smart grids, dynamic pricing, etc.) works poorly, especially for such vital resource as electricity.

I think there should be some kind of price penalty for intermittent sources dependent on total ratio of intermittent generation in the mix. At least until grid-scale energy storage technology will be advanced enough to store approximately week of total energy consumption.

fuoqi commented on ESA Sentinel-1D delivers first high-resolution images   esa.int/Applications/Obse... · Posted by u/giuliomagnifico
fuoqi · 2 months ago
I wonder if China has a constellation of similar satellites with the primary function to track the US CVBGs and provide aiming info for their "carrier killer" systems.
fuoqi commented on Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?   economist.com/finance-and... · Posted by u/harambae
cal_dent · 2 months ago
I think there's something quite interesting (well to me anyway) where if you go by the internet, there is this bloodbath (slight exaggeration perhaps but feels like that) in jobs out in the US, UK, Aus and major European countries (the volume of anecdotes & complaints would suggest a significant downturn in employment) but out in the official data, and less so but still true in the real world, things are still bobbing along. Not great guns but still ok. The interesting thing is how much is internet chatter a leading signal for this thing now than in previous cycles?

Outside of the unique circumstances of covid, we've never had, to my knowledge, a notable downturn when social media, and all the chatter it generates, has been so prominent or mass engaged. How much of it is just internet noise vs canary in the coal mine stuff. Who knows? But curious to find out in coming months/year

fuoqi · 2 months ago
There are several factors which contribute to the "rosy" official picture:

- A lot of people participate in the gig economy instead of getting registered as unemployed.

- AI has eroded a lot of employment opportunities for graduates, i.e. people relatively active on social networks.

- Official data can be horribly inaccurate (phone surveys in 2025, seriously?) with grossly outdated models (remember the recent huge revisions?). Political pressure does not help here either.

- The unemployment stats do not account for significant downgrades in salary and working conditions. They will show the same picture for a person with a cushy office job and the same person working 2 jobs in retail from paycheck-to-paycheck.

fuoqi commented on The time has finally come for geothermal energy   newyorker.com/magazine/20... · Posted by u/riordan
hodgehog11 · 3 months ago
I've always been curious why a cost-effective widespread implementation of geothermal energy has never been considered a holy grail of energy production, at least not in the public debate. Much of the discussion is so focussed on nuclear fusion, which seems so much harder and less likely to be reliable.
fuoqi · 3 months ago
Because unless you sit on top of a volcano, amount of renewable geothermal energy is minuscule. In most places on Earth it's somewhere around 40 mW/m2 (i.e. accounting for conversion losses you need to capture heat from ~500 m2 to renewably power one LED light bulb!). In other words, in most places geothermal plant acts more like a limited battery powered by hot rock, so unless drilling is extremely cheap, it does not make economic sense compared to other energy sources.
fuoqi commented on Neros has raised $121M to build military drones   nytimes.com/2025/11/10/bu... · Posted by u/asix66
mrguyorama · 3 months ago
A reminder that both Ukraine and Russia in the war use drones because they do not have the actual tools they want to use for that job

An artillery shell is like $800. THAT's the competition for an FPV drone. Drones have an advantage that they are cheap precision, which makes for great propaganda videos when you fly one into someone's face, but the cheap drones have limited effectiveness, and there's tons of downsides like needing dirt cheap parts (IE dependence on China) and needing trained operators and iffy effectiveness.

Those drones you see made out of cheap 3D printed parts are mostly about harassment and both Ukraine and Russia know they are easy to jam and not particularly effective as weapons (great for ISR though). They've only been useful on very soft targets.

No, $800 drones are not taking out tanks, not in a meaningful quantity. The war in Ukraine is still showing that the majority of tanks (and people) still die to mines and artillery. Things like a cheap BONUS round would be a real killer.

By the time you harden a drone against EM warfare and get it big enough to carry a warhead actually able to take out a hardened target, you have a shitty cruise missile, and it costs as much as other options. There is something to the drones running fiber optic cables, but it might also just be the next tick in the tick-tock of warfare evolution. Everything you do in war, every new system or trick or action causes a reaction.

Russia's Lancet, which is an actual somewhat cheap loitering munition that actually can harm a tank (sometimes?) is tens of thousands of dollars.

Tiny drones are not a revolution. They are an iteration on the concept of a hand grenade. Just like hand grenades, they do not revolutionize warfare.

And that's in an airspace that neither Russia nor Ukraine has strong control over. China and the USA do not intend to have "contested" airspace in any war, and are building thousand strong air fleets to that end. Consider that China is still investing in the same kind of war theory that the US insisted the past 40 years: Stealth, battlespace management, air power. If they had good evidence any of those things were bad plans, why would they do that? China seems to think that say, stealth is not defeated by cheap cameras and AI. If you don't understand how they came to that conclusion, you should consider you might not know as much about Stealth plane doctrine as you think.

There's already been failures trying to do things "Cheap", because of normal and expected battlefield conditions. The Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb program was about taking dirt cheap iron bombs and slapping commodity electronics on it for cheap precision, and it utterly failed because Russia has respectable Electronic warfare capabilities. Jamming is primarily physics, so overcoming it is either a big fuck off transmitter and reciever setup, or trying to pretend to not be doing anything by being spread spectrum and bouncing around enough that it's hard to keep up or even know you are there. Both options are expensive. Meanwhile, anything GPS guided is doomed to fail. By pure physics reasons, it's really hard to make something resistant to GPS jamming.

Again, we haven't even seen the first major tock to the tick of deploying drones at scale. You can expect SPAAG to be cool again! Maybe US will build https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M163_VADS again; Anything with a dirt cheap weapon and whatever off the shelf radar we have. Right now Ukraine and Russia are still in the "No real defense" spectrum, but nobody else intends to be there.

fuoqi · 3 months ago
>THAT's the competition for an FPV drone.

Russia uses plenty of artillery shells daily even today. Its own production easily outpaces NATO countries and they buy a lot from NK in addition to that.

Though they try to increase amount of "smart" munitions like Krasnopol, since they can be more cost effective than "dumb" shelling when you have guidance from drones.

>both Ukraine and Russia know they are easy to jam

Tell that to fiber drones. They are used in such large amounts that entire fields get covered in fiber. Even radio controlled drones quickly evolve with wing-based drones acting as re-translators and carriers.

And in the near future (year or two) we will see mass adoption of drones which are able to fly autonomously with on-board computer vision. Initially it will be just guidance during final stages after the target is locked, but later we will see drone swarms launched into the enemy's direction which autonomously search and destroy everything what moves.

>They've only been useful on very soft targets.

Sure. And this is why on both sides shiny tanks and MRAPs from parades and military exercises now look like Mad Max vehicles.

>The Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb program was about taking dirt cheap iron bombs and slapping commodity electronics on it for cheap precision

Meanwhile Russia found a huge success with its UPMK-modified FABs.

The situation may change significantly if an effective and cheap (kinetic or laser) anti-drone defense is developed and mass-deployed, but for now the sword is much stronger than the shield.

fuoqi commented on How the UK lost its shipbuilding industry   construction-physics.com/... · Posted by u/surprisetalk
fuoqi · 3 months ago
See this video on the economics of shipbuilding: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Gk61ginOqo

Assembly of civilian merchant ships is a notoriously low-margin industry (as opposed to manufacturing of engines/propellers/control systems). You could heavily subsidize it (by protectionism measures and/or by juicing up your Navy) like the US does in the name of strategic importance, but be prepared to pay heavily for it. If you want to preserve shipbuilding capabilities for military reasons, then chasing after the Asian shipbuilding countries may not be the most efficient way of achieving this, i.e. it may be better to just invest into building of military ships and manufacturing of higher-margin components without bothering with the low-margin assembly stuff.

fuoqi commented on The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity (1987) [pdf]   gandalf.fee.urv.cat/profe... · Posted by u/bookofjoe
_carbyau_ · 3 months ago
> A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses.

This is a characteristic of spite. Maybe spitefulness is stupid. But true spitefulness is a whole other level to watch out for.

fuoqi · 3 months ago
I think the whole sentence is a bad take. The described behavior can be perfectly rational (and thus commonly considered not "stupid") in the case when cost function of the acting person has a negative weight assigned to the counterpart group/person. In other words, when someone considers the other an "enemy", it makes sense to hurt the other even such act results in some direct losses.

Now, we can argue that playing negative-sum games is "stupid". And in most contexts of the modern human society such heuristic would be correct, but I would be really careful with a sweeping generalization, otherwise instead of a proper understanding of the underlying behavioral motivations you are likely to devolve into primitive explanations of someone being "stupid" or even "evil".

fuoqi commented on Credit markets look increasingly dangerous   economist.com/finance-and... · Posted by u/zerosizedweasle
FollowingTheDao · 4 months ago
More from:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/the-credit-market-is...

"The overarching concern on Wall Street is that the exceptionally high valuations for corporate debt are concealing excesses in the market and insufficiently compensating investors for taking risks."

If you look at the reaction to the markets the last two days, it makes no sense, adn this is why. It is just investor insanity out there right now. Gold as well keep breaking record highs at the same time the stock market does. Again, makes no sense, unless you think the market is in a huge bubble.

I will bet there is a dump in bitcoin coming.

fuoqi · 4 months ago
If it's an everything bubble, than it may not be a bubble, but a currency depreciation instead (not just $, but of all fiat currencies). Market participants openly expect a new round of bigger than ever money printing on the first serious signs of the R word (and BBB is just a precursor here).

Though, personally, I consider the AI trade to be currently deep in the overripe bubble territory.

u/fuoqi

KarmaCake day1492May 3, 2020View Original