In 2021 Paul Christiano wrote he would update from 30% to "50% chance of hard takeoff" if we saw an IMO gold by 2025.
He thought there was an 8% chance of this happening.
Eliezer Yudkowsky said "at least 16%".
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sWLLdG6DWJEy3CH7n/imo-challe...
We may certainly hope Eliezer's other predictions don't prove so well-calibrated.
Readit News
In 2021 Paul Christiano wrote he would update from 30% to "50% chance of hard takeoff" if we saw an IMO gold by 2025.
He thought there was an 8% chance of this happening.
Eliezer Yudkowsky said "at least 16%".
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sWLLdG6DWJEy3CH7n/imo-challe...
We may certainly hope Eliezer's other predictions don't prove so well-calibrated.