Very soon after the US took a decade-long "procurement holiday", and we lost an enormous amount of manufacturing expertise.
Can we bring those jobs back? Sure, with a lot of tax money. Do we want to? I do - the value of "service economy" jobs is in free fall as companies replace white collar employees with LLMs.
Why do people think that is? Have there been any attempts to change this from the inside over the past decade? Where are professional associations like the ACM in all of this? It's a shameful state of affairs and reflects poorly on the whole discipline.
People who design bridges and vehicles have real responsibilities and standards they are held to, yet somehow the software that actually runs these things is exempt.
This is how Boeing negligently murdered hundreds of people with MCAS. By taking responsibility for safety away from actual engineers and misplacing it with people who write software.
I think the piece you are missing is that guilds exist to protect workers, not consumers. US software engineers not feeling as though they need the protection of guilds means by extension there are no non-government bodies to enforce codes of conduct. It is also worth mentioning that, although limited to specific high-risk use cases, software engineering is regulated.
Since so many claim the opposite, I’m curious to what you do more specifically? I guess different roles/technologies benefit more from agents than others.
I build full stack web applications in node/.net/react, more importantly (I think) is that I work on a small startup and manage 3 applications myself.
To achieve AGI, we will need to be capable of high fidelity whole brain simulations that model the brain's entire physical, chemical, and biological behavior. We won't have that kind of computational power until quantum computers are mature.
- solo projects
- startups with few engineers doing very little intense code review if any at all
- people who don't know how to code themselves.
Nobody else is realistically able to get 10x multipliers. But that doesn't mean you can't get a 1.5-2x multiplier. I'd say even myself at a large company that moves slow have been able to realize this type of multiplier on my work using cursor/claude code. But as mentioned in the article the real bottleneck becomes processes and reviews. These have not gotten any faster - so in real terms time to ship/deliver isn't much different than before.
The only attempt that we should make at minimizing review times is by making them higher priority than development itself. Technically this should already be the case but in my experience almost no engineer outside of really disciplined companies and not in FAANG actually makes reviews a high priority, because unfortunately code reviews are not usually part of someones performance review and slows down your own projects. And usually your project manager couldn't give two shits about someone elses work being slow.
Processes are where we can make the biggest dent. Most companies as they get large have processes that get in the way of forward velocity. AI first companies will minimize anything that slows time to ship. Companies simply utilizing AI and expecting 10x engineers without actually putting in the work to rally around AI as a first class citizen will fall behind.
In my experience with municipal utility districts, the reliability of the water supply is typically not much better than the local power grid. The sewage lift stations seem to have the highest quality generator arrangements.