That is not how inflation works. Anyone complaining about the government printing money has an incredible naive view on the economy.
Mind explaining then? To me printing money is always bad.
Readit Newsconed88 commented on Ask HN: Is the stock market's growth largely anything more than inflation? · Posted by u/coned88
coned88 commented on Ask HN: Is the stock market's growth largely anything more than inflation? · Posted by u/coned88
My unsubstantiated view is the growth of broad market index funds. Because billions coming in to buy and hold, why would it drop value?
Because the money is funny money that's not real or robust. The US dollar has lost 85-96% of it's value since the early 70's. Just my view atleast
coned88 commented on Ask HN: Is the stock market's growth largely anything more than inflation? · Posted by u/coned88
There's no other place to park cash right now. Central banks have zero and some negative interest rates. Having cash on bank is very expensive so the stock market is the new bank.
I'm worried about a complete crash that would plummet everything. Imagine if every year the stock market represented real industry and work and value. It would be strong and sturdy. But with this money being so loose. It's similar to if I just gave you decks of cards year after year and said build, build, build. That house of cards is not going to be great and can collapse.
What happens in 80 years when milk is $34 a gallon?
coned88 commented on Ask HN: Is the stock market's growth largely anything more than inflation? · Posted by u/coned88
> The more money the government prints the more the stock market goes up.
I'm not an economist, but I have some speculation (no pun intended):
When the government prints money, most of it ends up with the rich. The smart rich know that it's unwise to have lots of money lying around, so they buy investment assets, like real estate and stocks.
When quantitative easing started in 2008-ish, guess what got more expensive? When COVID hit and money printer go brrrr, what got more expensive?
You're the one who seems to get what I'm saying exactly. It's like a big snowball that the more you feed it the more it grows as it rolls.
I can't tell if this is good or bad or not. Because it seems like funny money to me.
coned88 commented on Ask HN: Is the stock market's growth largely anything more than inflation? · Posted by u/coned88
Yes, stock market growth is largely driven by the real growth in earnings and dividends.
Nominal figures are not adjusted for inflation. "Real" numbers are adjusted for inflation (in economics-speak).
The stock market (e.g. S&P 500 index) has real earnings that have consistently grown over time (although earnings are quite volatile). The real dividends paid by the companies that make up the stock market have also grown over time.
Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at Wharton, wrote a great book called Stocks for the Long Run that shows stocks have grown about 7% per year (inflation adjusted) over the last 200 years.
> What would the market look like if we corrected for the money supply?
I think it's better to correct for inflation. The money supply can grow and it doesn't necessarily cause inflation (see the 2008 monetary response to the Great Financial Crisis as an example).
> It seems like the stock markets (USA) growth is strongly correlated to inflation
I'm not sure this is true. In the 70s, inflation was high and stock returns are low. In the 90s, inflation was low and returns were high. In 2021, inflation was high and returns were high.
> I think it's better to correct for inflation. The money supply can grow and it doesn't necessarily cause inflation (see the 2008 monetary response to the Great Financial Crisis as an example).
I may be a layman but I'm pretty sure that was just one type of inflation.
> I'm not sure this is true. In the 70s, inflation was high and stock returns are low. In the 90s, inflation was low and returns were high. In 2021, inflation was high and returns were high.
I'm not exactly talking about returns. I mean prices. In my eyes when you look at the S&P 500, every time there's money printing it's like a rolling snowball. It just gets bigger and bigger. But it's weird because that growth itself is not reflective of companies doing things but just them investing money or buying back stocks.
coned88 commented on Bash-oneliner: A collection of handy Bash one-liners and terminal tricks github.com/onceupon/Bash-... · Posted by u/bfm
I was surprised to see `$()` missing from this (otherwise quite extensive) list. There are a few commands listed which employ it, but it absolutely deserves its own entry.
That and `readlink -f` to get the absolute path of a file. (Doesn't work on MacOS; the only substitute I've found is to install `greadlink`.)
And `cp -a`, which is like `cp -r`, but it leaves permissions intact - meaning that you can prepend `sudo` without the hassle of changing the ownership back.
I never see `lndir` on these lists either. It makes a copy of a directory, but all of the non-directory files in the target are replaced with symlinks back to the source while directories are preserved as-is. Meaning that when you `cd` into it, you are actually landing in a copied structure of the source directory instead of the source directory itself, as would be the case if you just symlinked the source folder.
Once inside, any file you want to modify without affecting the original just needs you to create the symlink into a file, which you can do with `sed -i '' $symlink`. There you have it: effectively a copy of your original directory, with only the modified files actually taking up space (loosely speaking).
Looks like I have a few pull requests to submit.
What does `$()`?
Can somebody explain the takeaway with Camus in this? I can't seem to understand it.