Claude is a machine*
What's your point?
Readit Newscomputerphage commented on Claude's new constitution anthropic.com/news/claude... · Posted by u/meetpateltech
computerphage commented on The microstructure of wealth transfer in prediction markets jbecker.dev/research/pred... · Posted by u/jonbecker
How do prediction markets account for interest rates? I feel like I should be willing to pay no more than ~96 cents for a contract that will definitely resolve to a dollar in a year. Who puts up the other 4 cents?
The usual thing is that the market ends up around $0.95 for things like that, if the actors are all solid investors. It only takes one overly enthusiastic yes buyer to break that ceiling, the smart money won't "correct" it down to $0.95
There's another idea, which is make contacts that pay out in shares of an ETF, but I haven't seen this idea put into practice
The fact is nobody has any idea what OpenAI's cash burn is. Measuring how much they're raising is not an adequate proxy.
For all we know, they could be accumulating capital to weather an AI winter.
It's also worth noting that OpenAI has not trained a new model since gpt4o (all subsequent models are routing systems and prompt chains built on top of 4), so the idea of OpenAI being stuck in some kind of runaway training expense is not real.
Why do you think they have not trained a new model since 4o? You think the GPT-5 release is /just/ routing to differently sized 4o models?
It's a relatively well defined measure of success though: a movie which is popular and high-grossing.
Yep. Totally agreed that it's well defined. Only pointing out that the technical execution required will shift, which seems relevant because it's likely to make it take much longer than without this effect
How long until we see blockbuster movies produced by a guy in his basement for <$1000?
I think "blockbuster movie" is a moving target, so it's a bit hard to know
Why not?
Suddenly they had a more lucrative was to spend their money, so they did.
Because before buybacks there were dividends. Did the difference between buybacks and dividends really make the difference between doing basic research and not?
computerphage commented on The AI emperor has no clothes jeffgeerling.com/blog/202... · Posted by u/warrenm
Indeed. There are trillions of dollars /per year/ paid to workers in the US alone.
Like, there is an argument that can be made here, but "there's just not enough money in the world to justify this" definitely isn't it
computerphage commented on The AI emperor has no clothes jeffgeerling.com/blog/202... · Posted by u/warrenm
"There is no way the trillions of dollars of valuation placed on AI companies can be backed by any amount of future profit."
This is just a case of the user being unable to see far enough into the future. Yes, there's huge future profit to be had.
Indeed. There are trillions of dollars /per year/ paid to workers in the US alone.
Dead Comment
Global economy doesn't look that terrible. Nor is the AI story that believable. Is it just the CEO Zeitgeist? All the guys at Aspen talking about what fraction they cut, just as 5 years ago they bragged how bloated their org chart is?
TBH the "ZIRP overhiring" seems like the most likely real reason. I could never understand how all these companies could hire so many people for so much money, only to have them work on later-to-be-canned open source projects.
But if that's really it, no idea.