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codinghorror commented on Launching the Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative   blog.codinghorror.com/lau... · Posted by u/d4ft
hirpslop · a month ago
American government cash transfers overwhelmingly skew rural with the caveat that income maintenance is a smaller slice of the pie.

This report illustrates rural cash transfers beautifully: https://eig.org/great-transfermation/

codinghorror · a month ago
The largest chunk of federal "cash transfers" is not welfare; it is retirement and disability spending. The rural population is significantly older than the urban population.

Bear in mind that rural poverty rates (~17%) remain persistently higher than urban poverty rates (~12%).

And in a high-wage urban area (e.g., Seattle), a $20,000 Social Security check is a tiny fraction of the local per capita income. In a rural area, that same $20k check represents a much larger slice of the total economic pie. This makes the reliance on government cash appear massive -- ~29% rural and ~17% urban -- even if the absolute dollar difference is more modest.

Also, metro areas receive MASSIVE amounts of federal contracting money (defense, science, universities, federal employees), whereas rural areas get virtually none.

Mostly this is caused by the "graying" of rural America and the persistent lack of high-wage employment in rural areas.

codinghorror commented on Launching the Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative   blog.codinghorror.com/lau... · Posted by u/d4ft
hmry · a month ago
Hmm, means-tested program behind UBI would mean you get more money if UBI is not enough, right? I have heard some arguments in favor of that, for example for disabled people. You are right that those programs need to be a lot smaller and simpler to be worth the bureaucracy. But I doubt "I spent it all on prostitutes" would qualify you for that.

Other UBI advocates don't want any additional program like that. I think healthcare would need to change a lot to make that viable.

Or if you mean spending restrictions like those that exist for food stamps, then yeah, UBI usually means getting rid of those. So the argument there would be "people who are on food stamps instead of a job are idiots (sic) / too irresponsible to spend it wisely, so we must control what they spend it on", which is one of the foundational ideas that UBI advocates disagree with.

codinghorror · a month ago
I'd like to add that I feel quite strongly "Universal" and "Basic" are hugely probematic words. You end up with massive digressions immediately.. case in point.. look at this AMA for proof:

https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1onb5y8/can_guarantee...

How much of that MASSIVE SET OF DIGRESSIONS (which Neil handled like a gentleman, because he's a truly nice person) could have been avoided by not using "universal" (like, every atom in the universe? every person in the world? every mammal in this country) and "basic" (what is basic, even?) ..

codinghorror commented on Launching the Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative   blog.codinghorror.com/lau... · Posted by u/d4ft
bombcar · a month ago
If you have a requirement that the UBI be for citizens only, or for residents only, you've already introduced bureaucracy.

(Amusingly enough the earned income credit is NOT GMI but it kind of almost is in some cases ...)

codinghorror · a month ago
The EIC connection is covered in the history pages, which are fascinating in my opinion: https://rgmii.org/history-of-gmi/

As for a "does this person actually live in this area" criteria, I have a hard time seeing that single thing alone as "bureaucracy" -- it's quite common.

codinghorror commented on Launching the Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative   blog.codinghorror.com/lau... · Posted by u/d4ft
ranprieur · a month ago
This is better than nothing, but the big advantage of the UBI is that there is no bureaucracy deciding who gets it and doesn't get it. If there are any conditions on the income, then there's a constant danger that the program will become another tool of control.
codinghorror · a month ago
with GMI the conditions are very simple math: what percent of the poverty line are you within?

I agree that adding a lot of conditions is part of the problem, but "help those who most need it first" seems like a very logical primary (and perhaps only) condition.

codinghorror commented on Launching the Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative   blog.codinghorror.com/lau... · Posted by u/d4ft
skybrian · a month ago
I’m not sure which parts are supposed to be new since his previous post. [1] I think it’s the website? [2]

[1] https://blog.codinghorror.com/the-road-not-taken-is-guarante...

[2] https://rgmii.org/

codinghorror · a month ago
Yes, within 8 months we went from "how do we make systemic change" to actually doing it. This is proof. And the GMI topics are on that dedicated site, not Coding Horror.
codinghorror commented on Launching the Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative   blog.codinghorror.com/lau... · Posted by u/d4ft
bryanlarsen · a month ago
Why rural Americans? The same amount of cash will go a lot further and likely be more effective in rural areas of other countries. The source of Atwood's wealth (Stack Overflow etc) is global, not American.
codinghorror · a month ago
"Why rural Americans? The same amount of cash will go a lot further and likely be more effective in rural areas of other countries."

Again, the data goes into an open global repository that DOES help the entire world. We will all learn from it. When our house is currently on fire, I think we should deal with that first.

It's also "yes, and". Gates Foundation (among others) is working on other areas of the world and has vastly more money.

codinghorror commented on Launching the Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative   blog.codinghorror.com/lau... · Posted by u/d4ft
codexb · a month ago
I'm always surprised how even the people I consider incredibly intelligent get pulled into bad ideas.
codinghorror · a month ago
What's bad about this idea? I'd like to know.
codinghorror commented on Launching the Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative   blog.codinghorror.com/lau... · Posted by u/d4ft
bryanlarsen · a month ago
It gives me serious "steal from the poor and give to the rich" vibes. Rural Americans are richer than the majority of humans, and Stack Overflow was a fairly global website.

Rural America also has a government that is fully capable of taking proper care of it's underprivileged; most governments across the world are not.

codinghorror · a month ago
I strongly recommend you check out the book "$2.00 a Day: Living on Almost Nothing in America". People -- in this country, not in the third world -- are regularly selling their blood so they can afford to eat. https://www.google.com/search?q=%242+a+day%3A+living+on+almo...

What difference does it make if the government is "capable" when it's not happening in practice?

A lot of areas in this country resemble the third world more than the rest of America. Don't take it from me. Try the book reference I provided and its citations.

codinghorror commented on Launching the Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative   blog.codinghorror.com/lau... · Posted by u/d4ft
rightlane · a month ago
This honestly rubs me the wrong way. I have very close friends who mightily struggle financially but they are always just outside the threshold for assistance. Basic statistics don't capture the people who are barely making it or living on debt.

The appeal to me of UBI was always that it was highlighting that everyone needs their basic needs met. The moderately paid worker barely making rent in SF needs the money as much as anybody but would never pass a means test.

codinghorror · a month ago
it's "yes, and". Help those people who are selling their blood to buy happy meals first. I am not exaggerating. I wish I was. Check out the book "$2.00 a day: Living On Almost Nothing in America" for so much evidence. Disclaimer: I know the author now. Because I have to. It's related to the work we're doing. https://www.google.com/search?q=%242+a+day%3A+living+on+almo...

Beyond that, maybe SF really is too expensive a place to live in.

codinghorror commented on Launching the Rural Guaranteed Minimum Income Initiative   blog.codinghorror.com/lau... · Posted by u/d4ft
bombcar · a month ago
Local is often the best way, especially if you don't have resources that would overwhelm them (donating $1 billion to a local food pantry would likely blow it up).

But get involved personally; attend meetings, talk to people in the community, get to know what is being done and by whom, and places where some money goes a long way will start to become clear. In my experience the all-volunteer places are often way underfunded and don't really know what they're doing beyond helping people; if you can help guide them it can be incredibly valuable.

codinghorror · a month ago
100% do things locally. If there is a food bank in your area, support it heavily. That's the absolute base of the hierarchy of needs. For example, in that blog post, expand the immediate donations. Note $100k to Alameda Food Bank, where my partner Betsy regularly volunteers.

u/codinghorror

KarmaCake day1884March 30, 2008
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