grep laugh *
There's only one file in the directory. So that's a correct answer but the game wants me to run grep laugh night-before-christmas.txt
It's like those weird interviewers who have a specific answer in mind and they'll accept nothing other than the answer they have in mind.Instead you should be thinking in probability distributions. When someone asks for your P90 or P50 of project completion, you know they are a serious estimator, worth your time to give a good thoughtful answer. What is the date at which you would bet 90:10 that the project is finished? What about 99:1? And 1:99? Just that frameshift alone solves a lot of problems. The numbers actually have agreed-upon meaning, there is a straightforward way to see how bad an estimate really was, etc.
At the start of a project have people give estimates for a few different percentiles, and record them. I usually do it in bits, since there is some research that humans can't handle more than about 3 bits +/- for probabilistic reasoning. That would be 1:1, 2:1, 4:1, 8:1, and their reciprocals. Revisit the recorded estimates during the project retrospective.
You can make this as much of a game as you want. If you have play-money at your company or discretionary bonuses, it can turn into a market. But most of the benefit comes from playing against yourself, and getting out of the cognitive trap imposed by single number/date estimates.
I have no problem if they just hear the "2 weeks" part. If they come complaining in 3 weeks I just say "we hit that 10%".
The other important thing is to update estimates. Update people as soon as you realise you hit the 10%. Or in a better case, in a week I might be able to say it's now "1% chance of taking more than a week".
A lot of my questions went away when I got to this line though:
> He’s also fully engaged in the third leg of the “democratizing chip design” stool: education.
This is a valiant effort. Chip design is a hard world to break into, and many applications that could benefit from ASICs aren't iterating or testing on it because it sucks to do. It's a lot of work to bring that skill ceiling down, but as a programmer I could see how an LLVM-style intermediate representation layer could help designers get up-and-running faster.
Education is not just "buying" a certification to open doors. This part I'm happy to get rid off.
But those students aren't going to be using AI to skip all the learning. The article and just about everyone in higher education right now are saying that a large number of students are doing that. So, there must be a large number of students who are primarily motivated by piece of paper (and the job opportunity it provides).
That doesn't mean that they must be completely disinterested in their subject. They might have some lectures they really like and where they do the coursework properly. However, the epidemic of AI cheating speaks to the inefficiency created by the need for the piece of paper. If someone is essentially skipping 80% of the learning with AI then the job market requiring you to have a piece of paper is causing someone to waste 80% of their time and money. They would be better served by a short course teaching them only that 20% of skills they actually want.
The social side of things isn't something I was really addressing in this context. To me, that's a bonus of university. Given the cost, it doesn't seem worth going to university primarily for a social experience (unless you live somewhere where it's free). I also really hope that AI isn't affecting these social aspects.
The purpose of higher education should be to learn things that will be useful to you (most likely in a career). However, the current purpose is to gain a piece of paper which will mean your job application doesn't get immediately thrown out.
People being willing to spend so much time and money on university only to deliberately avoid learning or thinking by using AI to cheat on everything suggests that the system itself is broken.
These students don't actually want to be in university but feel they have to in order to have a chance at success in the current job market. We are in a prisoner's dilemma where everyone is getting degrees just to be a more appealling applicant than the next person. You might have authored a very impressive opensource library but still not get the junior software dev job because HR never gave your CV to the hiring manager since you don't have a STEM degree and 50 other applicants did.
However, I don't really know how university's will evolve from this or what this new system will be. It seems hard to motivate a bunch of 18 year olds to actually want to learn stuff without dangling a piece of paper and exams at the end. Maybe that's just a symptom of all of the levels of education that come before university also dangling paper and exams. There were certainly parts of my degree I would have, at the time, liked to have skipped with AI but now (older and wiser) I'm very glad I couldn't.
Personalised advertising is about collecting every detail about your life and using it to extract as much money as possible from you. AI advancements might be making this even more effective but it's been this way for a long time.