Readit NewsBut actually everything is merely waves and fields.
There's going to be a time where humans finally reconcile the quantum with the newtonian -- and I can't wait for that day
Edit: Found the source: https://www.eurogamer.net/maybe-ai-is-a-creative-solution-if...
But that wasn't what I was trying to get at. My point is that this is what the author was predicting, and if that were to pass, that is more or less the death of software development as a profession, contrary to what the author says when he says "I'm not going to do that, because I absolutely don't believe it."
The other thing I've been thinking is that most corporates now are mainly software (so it's been said), if thats the case and software becomes cheaper the barrier to entry to compete with corporates lowers, they become ripe for disruption. Insurance comes to mind, same with banking, probably others, search? its already disrupted, new industries will probably arise to - data validation, for example, is going to be an issue in the age of AI. The idea that making web sites for a living for the next century was probably always a very wishful way of thinking, but the idea that software development will disappear is also naive imho. However it's yet to be proved that software dev is cheaper with AI.
I don't think I ever learned how it can be useful other than feeding the mind.
Honestly this just feels like a roundabout way of saying software development is dead (this leaves aside the validity of the point, just to point out a contradiction in the author's message where the author seems to be saying that software development is dead in substance even while denying that at the surface).
Let me rewrite this entirely just using typists, which is a profession that has definitely been killed by technology.
> You might be expecting that here is where I would start proclaiming the death of typists as an industry.... I'm not going to do that, because I absolutely don't believe it. Voice transcription and/or personal computers means that anything you know how to say can be transcribed very rapidly. Read that sentence carefully. If you know just what words needs to be transcribed to solve an issue you want, the angels will grant you that code at the cost of some computer hardware.... for some typists, this revolution is not going to go well. Omelets are being made, which means that eggs will be broken.... Those that succeed in making this transition are going to be those with higher-order skills and larger vision. Those who have really absorbed what it means to be writers first and typing guys second.... Those that succeed in making this transition are going to need to accept that they are businessmen just as much as they are typists.
It still works, but only because of an extremely expansive definition of a "typist" that includes being an actual writer or businessman.
If your definition of "software developer" includes "businessman" I think that's simply too broad a definition to be useful. What the author seems to be saying is that software development will simply become another skill of an all-around businessman via the help of AI rather than a specialized role. Which sure, sounds plausible, but definitely qualifies as the death of software development as a profession in my book, in the same way that personal computers have made transcribing one's words simply another skill of an all-around businessman rather than a specialized role.
(Again leaving aside the question of whether that's going to actually happen. Just saying that the future world the author is talking about is pretty much one where software development is dead.)
So do you imagine that AI will reach the point that a business guy will say make me a web site to blah blah blah, and the AI will say sure boss and it will appear? Sort of what a dev/team of devs/testers/product managers/BA's would do now? the current batch is a long way from this afaik
Now there are a few things I see that affect this
1. The only way Claude knew how to do this is because there was a stack of existing code, but its probably in C, so you could regard Claude as an expert programming language translator.
2. There is no way that Claude could integrate this into my current code base
3. Claude can't create anything new
4. It's often very wrong, and the bigger/more complex the code is, the wronger it gets.
So, what are the areas that Claude excels? it seems that CRUD web app/Web front end is the sweet spot? (not really sure about this - I don't do much web front end work). I write graphics Apps and Claude is handy for those things you'd have to look up and spend some time on, but thats about all.
An example - I asked it to make me some fancy paint brush code (to draw in a painterly style), this is hard, the code that it made was pretty bad, it just used very basic brush styles, and when pressed it went into crazy land.
So my point is - if something exists and its not too hard, Claude is great, if you want something large and complex, then Claude can be a good helper. I really don't see how it can replace a good dev, there are a lot of code monkeys around gluing web sites together that could be replaced but even then they are probably the same people who are vibe coding now.
If you really want some fun ask them to draw a circuit diagram for a simple amplifier, it's almost painful watching them struggle.
They have customers who are startups and the 'got to have tools' folk like having lots of languages since they can onboard people who know anything-not-C# and benefit from the .Net library.
Ok, so does anyone remember 'Watson'? It was the chatgpt before chatgpt. they built it in house. Why didn't they compete with OpenAI like Google and Anthropic are doing, with in-house tools? They have a mature PowerPC (Power9+? now?)setup, lots of talent to make ML/LLMs work and lots of existing investment in datacenters and getting GPU-intense workloads going.
I don't disagree that this acquisition is good strategy, I'm just fascinated (Schadenfreude?) to witness the demise of confluent now. I think economists should study this, it might help avert larger problems.