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bubblelicious commented on $1T in tech stocks sold off as market grows skeptical of AI   gizmodo.com/1-trillion-in... · Posted by u/pabs3
ModernMech · 4 months ago
Of course not but explain how I am ever going to pay OpenAI, a for-profit company any dollars? Sam Altman gets explosive angry when he's asked about how he's going to collect revenue, and that is why. He knows when push comes to shove, his product isn't worth to people what it costs him to operate it. It's Homejoy at trillion dollar scale, the man has learned nothing. He can't make money off this thing which is why he's trying to get the government to back it. First through some crazy "Universal Basic Compute" scheme, now I guess through cosigning loans? I dunno, I just don't buy that this thing has any legs as a viable business.
bubblelicious · 4 months ago
I think you’re welcome to that opinion and are far from alone but (1) I am very happy to pay for Claude, even $200/mo is worth it and (2) idk if people just sort of lose track or what of how far things have come in the span of literally a single year, with the knowledge that training infra is growing insanely and people are solving on fundamental problem after another.
bubblelicious commented on $1T in tech stocks sold off as market grows skeptical of AI   gizmodo.com/1-trillion-in... · Posted by u/pabs3
ToValueFunfetti · 4 months ago
Electricity doesn't remove the need for human labor, it just increases productivity. If we produced AGI that could match top humans across all fields, it would mean no more jobs (knowledge jobs at least; physical labor elimination depends on robotics). That would make the university model obsolete- training researchers would be a waste of money, and the well-paid positions that require a degree and thus justify tuition would vanish. The economy would have to change fundamentally or else people would have to starve en masse.

If we produced ASI, things would become truly unpredictable. There are some obvious things that are on the table- fusion, synthetic meat, actual VR, immortality, ending hunger, global warming, or war, etc. We probably get these if they can be gotten. And then it's into unknown unknowns.

Perfectly reasonable to believe ASI is impossible or that LLMs don't lead to AGI, but there is not much room to question how impactful these would be.

bubblelicious · 4 months ago
I disagree, you have to take yourself back to when electricity was not widely available. How much labor did electricity eliminate? A LOT I imagine.

AI will make a lot of things obsolete but I think that is just the inherent nature of such a disruptive technology.

It makes labor cost way lower for many things. But how the economy reorganizes itself around it seems unclear but I don’t really share this fear of the world imploding. How could cheap labor be bad?

Robotics for physical labor lag way behind e.g. coding but only because we haven’t mastered how to figure out the data flywheel and/or transfer knowledge sufficiently and efficiently (though people are trying).

bubblelicious commented on $1T in tech stocks sold off as market grows skeptical of AI   gizmodo.com/1-trillion-in... · Posted by u/pabs3
marcosdumay · 4 months ago
Just to point, but there's no more data.

LLMs would always bottleneck on one of those two, as computing demand grows crazy quickly with the data amount, and data is necessarily limited. Turns out people threw crazy amounts of compute into it, so the we got the other limit.

bubblelicious · 4 months ago
Epoch has a pretty good analysis of bottlenecks here:

https://epoch.ai/blog/can-ai-scaling-continue-through-2030

There is plenty of data left, we don’t just train with crawled text data. Power constraints may turn out to be the real bottleneck but we’re like 4 orders of magnitude away

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bubblelicious commented on $1T in tech stocks sold off as market grows skeptical of AI   gizmodo.com/1-trillion-in... · Posted by u/pabs3
bigyabai · 4 months ago
> Also where is your evidence for this?

The fact that "scaling laws" didn't scale? Go open your favorite LLM in a hex editor, oftentimes half the larger tensors are just null bytes.

bubblelicious · 4 months ago
Show me a paper, this makes no sense of course scaling laws are scaling
bubblelicious commented on $1T in tech stocks sold off as market grows skeptical of AI   gizmodo.com/1-trillion-in... · Posted by u/pabs3
skywhopper · 4 months ago
There is zero evidence that synthetic data will provide any real benefit. All common sense says it can only reinforce and amplify the existing problems with LLMs and other generative “AI”.
bubblelicious · 4 months ago
Sounds like someone has no knowledge of the literature, synthetic data isn’t like asking ChatGPT to give you a bunch of fake internet data.
bubblelicious commented on $1T in tech stocks sold off as market grows skeptical of AI   gizmodo.com/1-trillion-in... · Posted by u/pabs3
wartywhoa23 · 4 months ago
The question is why must the humankind strive for unbelievably positive things at the expense of being forever plagued with unbelievably negative?

I'd much rather live in a world of tolerable good and bad opposing each other in moderate ways.

bubblelicious · 4 months ago
Right let’s not have done the Industrial Revolution or the Internet or electricity
bubblelicious commented on $1T in tech stocks sold off as market grows skeptical of AI   gizmodo.com/1-trillion-in... · Posted by u/pabs3
ModernMech · 4 months ago
Let me put it this way: when ChatGPT tells me I've hit the "Free plan limit for GPT-5", I don't even notice a difference when it goes away or when it comes back. There's no incentive for me to pay them for access to 5 if the downgraded models are just as good. That's a huge problem for them.
bubblelicious · 4 months ago
This based on any non anecdotal evidence by chance?
bubblelicious commented on $1T in tech stocks sold off as market grows skeptical of AI   gizmodo.com/1-trillion-in... · Posted by u/pabs3
candiddevmike · 4 months ago
We need a fundamental paradigm shift beyond transformers. Throwing more compute or data at it isn't pushing the needle.
bubblelicious · 4 months ago
And you don’t think that’s already happening? Also where is your evidence for this?

u/bubblelicious

KarmaCake day97August 27, 2025View Original