Readit News logoReadit News
brandonb commented on Inflammation predicts 25% higher mortality   thelancet.com/journals/eb... · Posted by u/brandonb
duffpkg · 6 hours ago
This headline is heavily editorialized and does not correspond with the title or findings of the study linked.
brandonb · 6 hours ago
The paper's original title is 66 characters too long for HN.

The "25% higher mortality" comes from the all-cause mortality result in "Findings", which is one of the main results of the paper. The paper expresses it as a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.25 [1.10–1.42]. Hazard ratios are standard in medical research, but I wanted to summarize the main result without jargon.

brandonb commented on Claim: GPT-5-pro can prove new interesting mathematics   twitter.com/SebastienBube... · Posted by u/marcuschong
whymauri · 11 hours ago
I used to work at a drug discovery startup. A simple model generating directly from latent space 'discovered' some novel interactions that none of our medicinal chemists noticed e.g. it started biasing for a distribution of molecules that was totally unexpected for us.

Our chemists were split: some argued it was an artifact, others dug deep and provided some reasoning as to why the generations were sound. Keep in mind, that was a non-reasoning, very early stage model with simple feedback mechanisms for structure and molecular properties.

In the wet lab, the model turned out to be right. That was five years ago. My point is, the same moment that arrived for our chemists will be arriving soon for theoreticians.

brandonb · 7 hours ago
This is really cool. Have you (or your colleagues) written anything about what you learned about ML for drug discovery?
brandonb commented on Inflammation predicts 25% higher mortality   thelancet.com/journals/eb... · Posted by u/brandonb
brandonb · 7 hours ago
This study followed 5,294 people for 20 years. People in the highest third of inflammation (hs-CRP > 5) had 32% higher chance of heart disease and 25% higher mortality from any cause.

Inflammation was a predictor even when you take cholesterol, blood pressure, BMI, etc into account. (The researchers trained various models to test this.)

Inflammation is pretty easy to measure in a blood test. Lots of places online: https://www.empirical.health/product/comprehensive-health-pa...

brandonb commented on 34% of ancient mummies showed atherosclerosis in a CT scan   pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2... · Posted by u/brandonb
brandonb · 3 days ago
Sometimes people assume heart disease is a modern problem that didn't plague ancient societies. This is one study that shows it's not.
brandonb commented on Beyond sensor data: Foundation models of behavioral data from wearables   arxiv.org/abs/2507.00191... · Posted by u/brandonb
jeron · 3 days ago
I'm sure they're also interested in the data. Imagine raising premiums based on conditions they detect from your wearables. That's why it's of utmost importance to secure biometrics data
brandonb · 3 days ago
At least in the US, health insurers can’t raise rates or deny coverage based on pre-existing conditions. That was a major part of the Affordable Care Act.
brandonb commented on Beyond sensor data: Foundation models of behavioral data from wearables   arxiv.org/abs/2507.00191... · Posted by u/brandonb
llm_nerd · 3 days ago
Apple's VO2Max measures are not based upon that deep neural network development, and empirical seems to be conflating a few things. And FWIW, just finding the actual paper is almost impossible as that same site has SEO-bombed Google so thoroughly you end up in the circular-reference empirical world where all of their pages reference each other as authorities.

Apple and Columbia did recently collaborate on a heart rate response model -- one which can be downloaded and trialed -- but that was not related to the development of their VO2Max calculations.

Apple is very shrouded about how they calculate VO2Max, but it likely is a pretty simple calculation (e.g. how much is your heart responding based upon the level of activity assumed based upon your motion, method of exercise and movements). The most detail they provide is in https://www.apple.com/healthcare/docs/site/Using_Apple_Watch..., which mostly is a validation that it's providing decent enough accuracy.

brandonb · 3 days ago
What’s your source on Apple not using the neural network for VO2Max estimation? They’ve been using on-device neural networks for various biomarkers for several years now (even for seemingly simple metrics like heart rate).

FWIW, the article above links directly to both the paper and a GitHub repo with PyTorch code.

brandonb commented on Beyond sensor data: Foundation models of behavioral data from wearables   arxiv.org/abs/2507.00191... · Posted by u/brandonb
aanet · 3 days ago
Thanks for posting this. This looks promising...

I have about 3-3.5 years worth of Apple Health + Fitness data (via my Apple Watch) encompassing daily walks / workouts / runs / HIIT / weight + BMI / etc. I started collecting this religiously during pandemic.

The exported Fitness data is ~3.5GB

I'm looking to do some longitudinal analysis - for my own purposes first, to see how certain indicators have evolved.

Has anyone done something similar? Perhaps in R, Python? Would love to do some tinkering. Any pointers appreciated!

Thanks!!

brandonb · 3 days ago
FWIW, we're working on something similar (you wouldn't necessarily need to write R or Python). Feel free to email me at bmb@empirical.health and I can add you to a beta once we have it ready!

u/brandonb

KarmaCake day6696January 17, 2011
About
Data for good.

Co-Founder at Empirical Health (https://empirical.health). Don't die of a heart attack.

Before: Co-Founder @ Cardiogram (ML for heart health)

  CTO at Sift Science (YC S11, machine learning to fight fraud)

  Data Science @ UCSF Cardiology

  HealthCare.gov rescue team

  Google (Android speech recognition, search ads ML)
twitter.com/bballinger

View Original