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bpolania commented on How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil   nytimes.com/2016/09/21/wo... · Posted by u/adventured
dredmorbius · 9 years ago
There are some crucial points missing from and/or obscured in this story. Yes, Venezuelay has run some massive social benefit programmes, including subsidising many standard goods, mosts especially fuel and food (both of which, on reflection are fuels), for years. So has virtually every other oil state.

The situation in Venezuela devolves in large part, though not entirely exclusively, from:

1. The globally depressed petroleum market. After massive price spikes in the late 2000s, increased extraction, mostly from very highly-financed unconventional wells, and an ongoing global economic recession, have caused oil prices to fall.

2. The highly-financed well operators, much as Venezuela, have the problem of high fixed costs, mostly debts, which must be serviced in order to avoid bankruptcy. This creates a perverse incentive to increase supply as price falls. Since these operators have high marginal costs, their profits are also lower to start with.

3. Venezuela's oil reserves, among the largest in the world, have always been less desireable than West Texas or Persian Gulf oil, both of which are "light sweet crude" -- comprised largely of smaller hydrocarbons, and low in contaminants, especially sulfer. Saudi crude flows like syrup, Venezuelan more like molassas on a cold day. Venezuela previously had more light and medium crude oil, but production of these has fallen by 37% since 2004 (Reuters, below).

4. Much of recent US domestic oil supply has been of NGL (natural gas liquids) and condensate -- very light fractions of hydrocarbons, some of which are only very barely not gaseous at normal temperatures. (This is also, incidentally, why oil train wrecks and fires have been so volatile -- the lighter fractions of oil are exceptionally volatile and burn explosively.) Much of this supply is not suitable for use in transport fuels. You cannot produce petrol, kerosene/jet fuel, or diesel from them, and the US has been (quietly) looking for ways to export this anyway. See this Wall Street Journal article from June, 2014:

http://blogs.wsj.com/corporate-intelligence/2014/06/25/what-...

Oil industry critics have argued that counting condensate/NGL in US crude oil extraction statistics isn't defensible.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Condensate-Con...

Exports of condensate began only in 2014 following regulatory rule changes:

http://fuelfix.com/blog/2014/06/24/feds-open-door-to-condens...

5. Venezuela is using the US imports as dilutants for its heavy oil. I suggested this in an earlier reply, and confirmed the fact in a Reuters artice:

Each barrel extracted from the Orinoco belt needs some kind of diluent to be transported and exported. Naphtha is typically used to transport crude to the upgraders, but when these facilities are not fully working or are under maintenance lighter crudes are needed to formulate blends for exports.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-venezuela-imports-fact...

Venezuela previously imported distillates from Nigeria in the 1990s.

6. As the NY Times article does manage to mention, Venezuela faces large debt and financing obligations to multiple creditors, including China, and several US firms, including Halliburton.

As with several previous Venezuela stories on HN, there's been a swarm of comments attacking the Venezuelan government and political systems. At best, those criticisms tell only a part of the story, and quite possibly a minor part.

bpolania · 9 years ago
Some of your point are consequences not causes. For example: the reason Venezuela is using the US imports as dilutants for its heavy oil is because bad management of the industry, it wasn't always like that, you can say the same about the debt, Venezuela is not screwed because of the debt, it has debt because it's screwed.
bpolania commented on How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil   nytimes.com/2016/09/21/wo... · Posted by u/adventured
DefaultUserHN · 9 years ago
>Why aren't people taking drastic action against this failed government?

They don't have the 2nd Amendment.

bpolania · 9 years ago
Venezuela doesn't have a 2nd amendment, but the lack of guns is certainly not the reason, if anything is the excess of guns in the street, what people in America don't understand is that the government will always be better armed than the population, Syria is a good example.

What keeps totalitarian governments is will to power, how much os the government willing to risk against the population. Owning a gun is not the same as being willing to die.

bpolania commented on How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil   nytimes.com/2016/09/21/wo... · Posted by u/adventured
cobbzilla · 9 years ago
Curious American asking any Venezuelans out there: how does this situation get any better? What do you look to for hope? I'm not familiar with the Venezuelan media perspective (any non-state-affiliated stations left?), but from here, it seems like there is no serious effort to change course; on the contrary Maduro seems to be driving ahead with the notion that, somehow, more of the poison will cure the patient.

When does the change in direction come? What brings it on? Will Maduro step down? Will his successor do any better? Or will his successor be even more dictatorial? It's all very worrisome, my heart goes out to those who live under such incompetent rule.

bpolania · 9 years ago
First step is to reduce public spending and fight corruption, just very basic steps will bring significant improvement.

Then, welcome foreign and local investment: privatize most of the industries that were nationalized and are now idle, and fix labor laws a little, this also include liberalization of currency, enforce property laws so private companies feel safe investing in the long term.

When can this happen? As of today no sooner than 2019 when the next presidential elections will take place. Unless a coup is on the table but I don't see that happening.

bpolania commented on How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil   nytimes.com/2016/09/21/wo... · Posted by u/adventured
optimuspaul · 9 years ago
I'm not sure that's how the black market works. I don't think I can exchange dollars for bolivars. That sounds like a losing proposition for the black market.
bpolania · 9 years ago
People who lives in Venezuela saves in US$ and exchange dollars for bolivars when they need liquidity in local currency.
bpolania commented on How Bad Off Is Oil-Rich Venezuela? It’s Buying U.S. Oil   nytimes.com/2016/09/21/wo... · Posted by u/adventured
jimmywanger · 9 years ago
Funny thing is that socialism tends to reject religion, but price controls originated in Christian thought.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Just_price

What a lot of people don't realize is that prices aren't inherently good or bad in and of themselves, they just are. If somebody else is willing to pay 20k for a diamond, that's the price of a diamond.

No amount of legislation or argument will drive down the price of a diamond to what it "should" be.

See http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014240527023034600045791921.... The prices of electronics dropped in price after a governmental mandate. Guess what? After the store inventories were depleted, they never got any more TVs to sell.

bpolania · 9 years ago
In Venezuela price control is not ideological is a stupid move to try to rein inflation.

u/bpolania

KarmaCake day1644December 20, 2010View Original