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bottlepalm commented on Boston Dynamics robot Atlas goes hands on [video]   youtube.com/watch?v=F_7IP... · Posted by u/PotatoNinja
mempko · 10 months ago
Compare this to the human controlled puppets Tesla demonstrated. Tesla made a big show of something Disney could do years ago. While Boston Dynamics is quietly building the real thing and showing us footage of it actually working.
bottlepalm · 10 months ago
The difference is Disney doesn't have any factories. I'd bet good money Tesla has Optimus doing real work in their factories, at scale, long before anyone else.
bottlepalm commented on Starship Flight 5: Launch and booster catch [video]   twitter.com/SpaceX/status... · Posted by u/alecco
slimebot80 · 10 months ago
Correct, and that's why NASA outsourced funding.

Because if NASA risked billions on "crazy ideas" they'd get shut down, being a government agency.

No point pretending it's all Elon.

bottlepalm · 10 months ago
You’re pretending if you think anyone but Elon would approve building a massive launch tower with chopstick arms to catch what is essentially an incoming bomb.
bottlepalm commented on Starship Flight 5: Launch and booster catch [video]   twitter.com/SpaceX/status... · Posted by u/alecco
slimebot80 · a year ago
The SpaceX engineers did a great job, as did NASA.

The media needs to stop blindly attributing this to "Elon Musk". He did well taking the risks NASA was not allowed to take at the start. But these days he is toxic to the media and toxic to reporting, so for that reason alone the media could smarted up a little. Well done SpaceX and NASA engineers.

bottlepalm · a year ago
Elon is the guy who said, "that is the craziest idea I've ever heard, here's billions, let's build it"

It's 100% Musk that this happened, literally no one else would have done it. Everyone thought it was dumb until today. No company, no government or sci fi movie for that matter had even thought of it in the first place.

SpaceX engineers given the green light by Musk, not NASA, made it a reality. That's not to say Elon didn't make many decisions along the way in the design and development of both Starship, the launch towers and everything else.

The point is, Elon deserves a hell of a lot of credit along with everyone else. Everyone has their part to play in the success of the mission.

bottlepalm commented on Starship Flight 5: Launch and booster catch [video]   twitter.com/SpaceX/status... · Posted by u/alecco
thisisthenewme · a year ago
Why do we think its Elon 'doing' this? Just curious, since it could just as well be that its the engineers and other leaders who could be the differentiator.
bottlepalm · a year ago
Because it's Elon who said "ok, build it." There's no one else except him with that power and/or the guts. Even landing a rocket the government had given up on, and no company was even trying until he did. People were calling the 'chopstick' landing system a dumb idea until today.

It's not like engineers don't come up with wild ideas all the time to their leadership, but is the leadership good enough to understand the good ideas from bad ones? Take the risk, spend billions to actually execute?

Elon has enough of a physics/engineering background to ask the right questions, understand the trades engineers put in front of him, and make the risk/reward calculation to make the right decisions the ends up winning.

To get what SpaceX has you need strong technical leadership all the way up the chain. Many companies don't. Their CEOs are experts in legal, PR, finance, etc... They make poor technical decisions.

bottlepalm commented on Nvidia and MediaTek Collaborate on 3nm AI PC CPU   tomshardware.com/pc-compo... · Posted by u/mgh2
bottlepalm · a year ago
It'd be interesting if games can be revolutionized with realistic worlds and NPCs with the use of a dedicated NPU. Like how game graphics were revolutionized with the GPU.
bottlepalm commented on OpenAI Announces Realtime Voice API   twitter.com/swyx/status/1... · Posted by u/swyx
bottlepalm · a year ago
Looks like even for the non-realtime API they're charging $200/M for output audio. Their current TTS API is $15/M (characters) for output audio, which equates to $60/M if each token is around 4 characters. Then add in the manual piping to the 4o LLM which is $15/M, around $75/M total.

So from $75 to $200/M is a big premium for the convenience of one model and the quality of multi modal input/output. Will have to test and see if it's worth it.

Also is there still no way to connect users directly to OpenAI? Like directly from a user's browser to OpenAI's servers, without the user having to supply their own API key? How does this work with realtime that needs websockets? Do I need an intermediate proxy server for all my users conversations? Seems like a waste of bandwidth, an unnecessary failure point, and a privacy problem. I hope I am wrong.

bottlepalm commented on OpenAI in throes of executive exodus as three walk at once   theregister.com/2024/09/2... · Posted by u/gsky
WJW · a year ago
To stick with the metaphor, it's not super unclear if agency is within grasp or on the other side of an abyss. LLMs are definitely an improvement, but it's not at all clear if they can scale to human-level agency. If they reach that, it's even more unclear if they could ever reach superhuman levels given that all their training data is human-level.

And finally, we can see from normal human society that it is hardly ever the smartest humans who achieve the most or rise to the highest levels of power. There is no reason to believe that an AI with agency would an inherent "it's over" scenario

bottlepalm · a year ago
> There is no reason to believe...

What is happening right now is so obvious that people have been predicting it for over 60 years. It is ingrained in our culture. Everyone knows what happens when the AI becomes smarter than us.

If you 'see no reason' then you are looking through a microscope. Lift your head up and look around. Agency isn't black and white, it is a gradient. We already have agency to some degree, and it is improving fast.

bottlepalm commented on OpenAI in throes of executive exodus as three walk at once   theregister.com/2024/09/2... · Posted by u/gsky
philistine · a year ago
We kill millions of humans with agency every day on this planet. And none of them immediately die if we stop providing them with electrical power ... well I guess a small amount of them do. Anyway, we'll be fine. If the AI come, can they immediately stop us from growing food? How can an AI prevent my orchard from giving apples next year? Sure, it can mess up Facebook, but at this point that'd be a benefit.
bottlepalm · a year ago
How can you shut down something that can multiply into data centers in different countries around the world?

I'm not sure you realize this, but computers control everything. A dumb bug shut down windows computers around the world a month ago. A smart AI could potentially rewrite every piece of software and lock us out of everything.

Those medicines your friends and family need to stay alive? Yea the factories that produce them only work if you do what the AI says.

bottlepalm commented on OpenAI Discusses Giving Altman 7% Stake in For-Profit Shift   bloomberg.com/news/articl... · Posted by u/dataminer
throwaway314155 · a year ago
Multimodal generally refers to _just_ two (or more) modes. Omni-modal was invented by OpenAI to describe their approach. I'm sure Anthropic is working on something similar to gpt-4o but I don't see how that invalidates my argument about anthropic doing well on benchmarks. In particular because their model was released several months _before_ gpt-4o and still holds its own fairly well.
bottlepalm · a year ago
Personally I like Anthropic, they do one thing well, but there are a lot more applications for AI that OpenAI is offering solutions for. Anthropic, not so much.
bottlepalm commented on OpenAI in throes of executive exodus as three walk at once   theregister.com/2024/09/2... · Posted by u/gsky
alfalfasprout · a year ago
The problem is that we're going through what happened in computer vision all over again. Convnets were getting bigger and bigger. New improvements came about in training efficiency, making medium models better, etc. Until... marginal improvements became more and more marginal.

LLMs are going through the same thing now. Better and better every iteration but increasingly we're starting to see a fast approaching wall on what they can really do with the current paradigm.

bottlepalm · a year ago
We are literally standing on the precipice of agency. After that, it's over. You see us approaching a wall, I see a cliff.

u/bottlepalm

KarmaCake day1540August 3, 2022View Original