Readit NewsIf you’re obese, have metabolic syndrome, have T2D, or any other number of issues that we’ve seen GLP-1s (or metformin) help with - then the medications can be a godsend.
If you account for the current trajectory of model capabilities, bare-minimum competence and good faith on behalf of OpenAI and cloud compute providers, then it's nowhere near a money pit or shenanigan, it's typical VC medium to high risk investment plays.
At some point they'll pull back the free stuff and the compute they're burning to attract and retain free users, they'll also dial in costs and tweak their profit per token figure. A whole lot of money is being spent right now as marketing by providing free or subsidized access to ChatGPT.
If they wanted to maximize exposure, then dial in costs, they could be profitable with no funding shortfalls by 2030 if they pivot, dial back available free access, aggressively promote paid tiers and product integrations.
This doesn't even take into account the shopping assistant/adtech deals, just ongoing research trajectories, assumed improved efficiencies, and some pegged performance level presumed to be "good enough" at the baseline.
They're in maximum overdrive expansion mode, staying relatively nimble, and they've got the overall lead in AI, for now. I don't much care for Sam Altman on a personal level, but he is a very savvy and ruthless player of the VC game, with some of the best ever players of those games as his mentors and allies. I have a default presumption of competence and skillful maneuvering when it comes to OpenAI.
When an article like this FT piece comes out and makes assumptions of negligence and incompetence and projects the current state of affairs out 5 years in order to paint a negative picture, then I have to take FT and their biases and motivations into account.
The FT article is painting a worst case scenario based on the premise "what if everyone involved behaved like irresponsible morons and didn't do anything well or correctly!" Turns out, things would go very badly in that case.
ChatGPT was released less than 3 years ago. I think predicting what's going to happen in even 1 year is way beyond the capabilities of FT prognosticators, let alone 5 years. We're not in a regime where Bryce Elder, finance and markets journalist, is capable or qualified to make predictions that will be sensible over any significant period of time. Even the CEOs of the big labs aren't in a position to say where we'll be in 5 years. I'd start getting really skeptical when people start going past 2 years, across the board, for almost anything at this point.
Things are going to get weird, and the rate at which things get weird will increase even faster than our ability to notice the weirdness.
FT’s argument is, essentially, “we’re in a bubble and OpenAI raised too much and may not make it out.”
Neither of us knows which is more correct. But it is certainly at least a very real possibility that the FT is more correct. Just like the Internet was a great “game changer” and “bubble maker,” so are LLMs/AI.
I think it’s quite obvious we’re in a bubble right now. At some point, those pop.
The question becomes: is OpenAI AOL? Or Yahoo? Or is it Google?
I don’t think anybody is arguing it’s Pets.com.
The overwhelming benefits from GLP-1 are courtesy of weight loss and better blood sugar control. Get those two things under control, with or without GLP-1 drugs, and an enormous array of complications are made less likely.
For people with healthy, ideal diets at an optimal weight and with good blood sugar control, there are only remote, hypothetical benefits. There is some evidence it reduces inflammation and might ward off neurodegenerative disorders, but those likely have more of a relationship with blood sugar spikes, and again lifestyle changes are more impactful.
(Except I’ll note that’s true for more than one hormone, as tirzepatide is both a GLP1 and GIP agonist, and I believe retatrutide is also Glucagon?)
Nobody knows what migraine really is, so this isn't a surprise to them that GLP-1 may help, the main question is; why? So they have another data point proving that gut health has a direct correlation to the brain.
Keep in mind that a lot of the benefits go away once patients come off GLP-1 and we have not seen any studies yet on what happens to people who come off it for long term effects. It may in fact make things even worse and for a lot of people, they may have to stay on it for the rest of their lives.
Not if they increase muscle mass and change their lifestyle, like every physician (and the FDA/pharma companies) recommend.
> It may in fact make things even worse and for a lot of people, they may have to stay on it for the rest of their lives.
It does not. And some people may.
You know what’s worse than taking a GLP-1 forever? Obesity or metabolic syndrome killing you before you get to “forever.”
Another example: low dose metformin is largely considered beneficial for most people, at least in a small way. But very few people who aren’t diabetic take it, as the drawback of possible side effects outweighs the potential benefit for someone who doesn’t have symptoms in the first place.
Same thing here. Would it benefit you? Possibly. Do the risks of side effects outweigh that benefit for someone without symptoms? Also possibly.
They benefit from slowing and attacking OpenAI because there's no clear purpose for these centralized media platforms except as feeds for AI, and even then, social media and independents are higher quality sources and filters. Independents are often making more money doing their own journalism directly than the 9 to 5 office drones the big outlets are running. Print media has been on the decline for almost 3 decades now, and AI is just the latest asteroid impact, so they're desperate to stay relevant and profitable.
They're not dead yet, and they're using lawsuits and backroom deals to insert themselves into the ecosystem wherever they can.
This stuff boils down to heavily biased industry propaganda, subtly propping up their allies, overtly bashing and degrading their opponents. Maybe this will be the decade the old media institutions finally wither up and die. New media already captures more than 90% of the available attention in the market. There will be one last feeding frenzy as they bilk the boomers as hard as possible, but boomers are on their last hurrah, and they'll be the last generation for whom TV ads are meaningfully relevant.
Newspapers, broadcast TV, and radio are dead, long live the media. I, for one, welcome our new AI overlords.
“Are reposts ok?
If a story has not had significant attention in the last year or so, a small number of reposts is ok. Otherwise we bury reposts as duplicates.”
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html
Also, from the guidelines: “Please don't post on HN to ask or tell us something. Send it to hn@ycombinator.com.”
I surmise that would help people learn to code better.