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bmcusick commented on Are diesel’s days numbered? A view from a trip to BYD’s electric bus factory   arstechnica.com/cars/2018... · Posted by u/okket
VintageCool · 7 years ago
The prediction is that ride-hailing taxis will be ubiquitous and cheap once we have self-driving cars. Companies will be able to flood the city streets with them once they are purely a capital expenditure and they don't have to pay human drivers.

If self-driving taxis are ubiquitous enough, there could be very little wait time between hailing a taxi from an app on your smartphone and the taxi arriving at your location.

At some price point, it will stop making sense to spend $20,000-$30,000 to buy a car. And you won't have to pay for insurance or gas or wear-and-tear or parking. The car could be out making money instead of being parked 22 hours a day.

Businesses and apartments and home developers will stop building parking spaces and parking lots once self-driving taxis hit a sufficient threshold.

Finally, cars will solve transit's "last mile" problem. Instead of paying for a taxi from home to work, you can pay for a taxi from home to the Light Rail station.

bmcusick · 7 years ago
Exactly right.
bmcusick commented on Are diesel’s days numbered? A view from a trip to BYD’s electric bus factory   arstechnica.com/cars/2018... · Posted by u/okket
ssdd · 7 years ago
To me buses and truck market seems niche as compared to personal cars for companies looking to build electric tech to drive them. Number of state departments and businesses willing to pay for electric vehicle are fewer compared to electric car customers.
bmcusick · 7 years ago
And airlines are niche compared to mass market cars too, but they're still a good business!

One thing I think most people don't appreciate is that the switch to self-driving cars will transform America into a mostly-transit society. Once you don't need a car to live from day to day, you sell it. Then you take a self-driving Lyft from your house to the bus depot, train station, or airport.

The market for self-driving busses between cities will grow alongside the market for self-driving cars within cities.

bmcusick commented on Are diesel’s days numbered? A view from a trip to BYD’s electric bus factory   arstechnica.com/cars/2018... · Posted by u/okket
bmcusick · 7 years ago
I like the discussion at the end about the difficulties on delivering the busses long distance, and the lack of chargers big enough to recharge them. If the Tesla Semi actually launches at some point, perhaps that will change and we will get city-to-city electric busses too. Battery ranges should improve to the point where that becomes practical over the next few years too.

What a great market that would be for Waymo. Predictable routes of mostly highway driving would be right up their alley.

bmcusick commented on Children born to spies in Canada should not be handed citizenship, says Ottawa   cbc.ca/news/politics/spie... · Posted by u/walterbell
bmcusick · 7 years ago
What is a spy?

They're not a legal immigrant, because they lied on their immigration papers, making their immigration invalid.

If they're an illegal immigrant, their children would be granted citizenship.

If they're a diplomat, their children would not be granted citizenship. The child of the Russian Ambassador does not become a Canadian citizen even if born and raised in Toronto.

I think the government's argument that they're more like a diplomat (an agent of a foreign country) than an undocumented resident (e.g., someone who's entered the country of their own volition for work) is pretty sound.

bmcusick commented on Hong Kong government granted US consulate a rare 999-year lease in the 1990s   scmp.com/news/hong-kong/a... · Posted by u/dosy
bmcusick · 7 years ago
My god. It's an actual, blatant violation of the Rule Against Perpetuities. [0] And here I thought I'd never use this knowledge outside of a Property Law exam.

0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_against_perpetuities

bmcusick commented on Colonising Mars is unlikely and a bad idea   theconversation.com/sorry... · Posted by u/EvilMonkeyMat
bmcusick · 7 years ago
The idea that humans shouldn’t expand into the cosmos for fear of displacing some xenoplanktons is nuts. I’m not anti-xenoplankton, but I’m very pro-human. We will inherit the stars.
bmcusick commented on Google’s Anti-Pentagon Decision Will Kill More People   wsj.com/articles/googles-... · Posted by u/propman
bmcusick · 7 years ago
You know what would kill fewer people? Not bombing Yemen.
bmcusick commented on Rental Attacks Mean Blockchains Must Evolve or Die   techcrunch-com.cdn.amppro... · Posted by u/vasilipupkin
bmcusick · 7 years ago
This article has it completely backwards. As is often the case, (just as Paul Krugman gets basic tech facts wrong) tech people often don't understand economics.

This has ALWAYS been the problem with "ASIC resistant" coins. "ASIC Resistant" just means that you can rent an AWS instance to attack the coin because any generic CPU or GPU will work.

Bitcoin isn't safe just because it's big. It's safe because Bitcoin mining hardware has no purpose other than to mine Bitcoin. Which means the economics are such that Bitcoin mining is only profitable on the fully amortized lifetime cost of the miner, not on the marginal rental cost.

(That's because competition between miners drives the difficulty so high that marginal revenues fall until they equal long-term marginal costs, which are (land rent + labor + fully amortized hardware + electricity))

ASIC driven Proof-of-Work is fine as long as your coin's POW is unique. Only by forcing miners to make a 3-5 year investment in mining hardware can you align the long term incentives of miners and end-users.

bmcusick commented on Waymo’s autonomous vehicles are driving 25,000 miles every day   techcrunch.com/2018/07/20... · Posted by u/sahin
dzdt · 7 years ago
Human drivers average about 1 fatality per 100 million vehicle miles traveled. [1] So we are still a long ways from being able to access safety in comparison to humans. [1] https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/...
bmcusick · 7 years ago
There's more to safety statistics than just the mortality rate. We should be able to look at frequency and severity of non-fatal accidents too. Those happen a lot more often.

For example, accidents that occur at 35 MPH or less are much less likely to result in a fatality or major injury, due to the amount of kinetic energy that a human body can safely dissipate. So if Google cars have even slightly better braking or speed control, you're going to see an improvement. Looking at the average speed at which accidents occur would be useful information.

bmcusick commented on The European Commission versus Android   stratechery.com/2018/the-... · Posted by u/denzil_correa
galadran · 7 years ago
A pretty well written analysis. I think the author is mistaken on two important points though.

The author writes that due to Google Play Services, most Android apps are in fact Google Play apps and couldn't be used on a non-Google version of Android without a significant rework. I believe there's already a significant body of work on providing drop in replacements for Google Play Services, e.g. microG [1]. There is nothing that stops a manufacturer from providing microG instead of Play Services and hence cutting Google out.

Secondly, the author complains that:

> More broadly, the European Commission continues to be a bit too cavalier about denying companies — well, Google, mostly — the right to monetize the products they spend billions of dollars at significant risk to develop.

There's a huge rift in how most Europeans and Americans see the role of regulators but without getting into that, I want to note Android was not Google's effort alone and hardly a significant risk. Android as a software stack is built on the back of the Linux Kernel and a dozen other open source frameworks (Java, sqlite etc). Equally, Google is hardly responsible for the hardware. Manufacturer's like HTC and Samsung invested far more in making Google a success than Google did. The same manufacturers that Google has been screwing over with its anti competitive practices...

[1] https://microg.org/

bmcusick · 7 years ago
More to the point, the EU didn't say "Google can't monetize Android". It just said that this tying arrangement between Google Search and Android is too anti-competitive.

Android could find other, more transparent and competitive, revenue models.

u/bmcusick

KarmaCake day989June 2, 2016View Original