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blackbear_ commented on Rapid loss of Antarctic ice may be climate tipping point   reuters.com/sustainabilit... · Posted by u/yusufaytas
qcnguy · 2 days ago
Meanwhile

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/20/slowdown...

Academics don't understand the climate and never did.

blackbear_ · 2 days ago
And somebody doesn't know that the Arctic and Antarctica are two different places...
blackbear_ commented on RFK Jr demanded a vaccine study be retracted – the journal said no   nature.com/articles/d4158... · Posted by u/rntn
bko · 3 days ago
> Kennedy also criticized the fact that the authors did not compare vaccinated and unvaccinated children to determine whether any aluminium exposure causes harm, even though they had some data on unvaccinated children.

I'm not a scientist, but if you were to tell me "this trial shows that substance X is not harmful", I would think ideally it would give substance X to one group and a placebo to the other group. If not possible, it would look after the fact to see group A that received substance X compared to group B that didn't, large enough sample so it would be relatively controlled for extraneous variables. Seems like you would def want to compare the two groups, so what did this study actually do?

Another criticism:

> Among Kennedy’s criticisms of the Danish study are that the analysis excluded children who had died before the age of two. According to Kennedy, this means that the children “most likely to reveal injuries” associated with aluminum exposure were excluded.

From the opinion piece:

> The architects of this study meticulously designed it not to find harm. From the outset, Andersson et al. excluded the very children most likely to reveal injuries associated with high exposures to aluminum adjuvants in childhood vaccines. The exclusion included all children who died before age two, those diagnosed early with respiratory conditions, and an astonishing 34,547 children — 2.8% of the study population — whose vaccination records showed the highest aluminum exposure levels.

I remember looking at some Lending Club loan statistics and their stated yields by Lending Club. I thought it was pretty good at the time. But then I noticed in fine print that from the historical yield calculations, they exclude any loans that defaulted within the first X months. That was not something I expected.

I could see why Lending Club excluded these, but what's the rationale, if true, of excluding some populations from the vaccine trial results?

blackbear_ · 3 days ago
> Seems like you would def want to compare the two groups, so what did this study actually do?

You are right. Indeed, all vaccines and drugs undergo clinical trials testing for safety first, efficacy then, before being approved for sale and distribution.

The study in question analyzes data that was routinely collected after the vaccine was approved, that is why they didn't do the randomization themselves.

One of these vaccines is DTaP-IPV/Hib aka Pentacel, and the clinical results for it are reported here: https://www.fda.gov/files/vaccines,%20blood%20&%20biologics/...

> The two controlled pivotal safety studies, overall rates of serious adverse events were similar in Pentacel and Control subjects.

(Tested on about 5,000 children younger than two years old and getting two or three doses of the vaccine).

Another trial for that vaccine was recently performed in Japan, also not finding significant rates of adverse events: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32307307/

blackbear_ commented on RFK Jr demanded a vaccine study be retracted – the journal said no   nature.com/articles/d4158... · Posted by u/rntn
SilverElfin · 3 days ago
> The only right way to contest a scientific study is to provide a new scientific investigation that reaches different conclusions.

Why is this the “only way”? The issue is this study seems to have manipulated its procedure to arrive at a preset conclusion. There are a lot of seemingly valid problems pointed out with it. Shouldn’t that be enough to contest it without the burden or cost or time of an “opposing” study?

blackbear_ · 3 days ago
> There are a lot of seemingly valid problems pointed out with it.

As I said, if the problems are indeed valid then a new analysis will show it. Otherwise, it's all speculations, and that is simply not enough.

Science isn't built on speculations but on hard data, and this standard is not negotiable. Saying "sounds about right", shrugging and calling it a day is just not acceptable.

blackbear_ commented on RFK Jr demanded a vaccine study be retracted – the journal said no   nature.com/articles/d4158... · Posted by u/rntn
blackbear_ · 3 days ago
By far the most correct way to contest a scientific study is to provide a new scientific investigation that reaches different conclusions.

If those claims are true then I'm sure it won't be difficult to conduct a proper scientific investigation by collecting and anlyzing data, eventually sharing everything openly to finally "own the libs" for good.

Until that point, lots of words that aren't backed by a proper analysis are just speculations and should be treated as such.

Science isn't built on speculations but on hard data, and this standard is not negotiable. Challenges and skepticism are welcome but they should be properly supported, rethoric is just not enough.

blackbear_ commented on Clojure Async Flow Guide   clojure.github.io/core.as... · Posted by u/simonpure
judge123 · 8 days ago
For me, the real 'click' moment with core.async wasn't just about replacing callbacks. It was realizing I could model entire business processes as a system of communicating channels. It completely changed how I think about system design.
blackbear_ · 8 days ago
Curious if you have found any resources to learn more about this way of thinking?
blackbear_ commented on Is chain-of-thought AI reasoning a mirage?   seangoedecke.com/real-rea... · Posted by u/ingve
lordnacho · 12 days ago
What's stopping us from building an LLM that can build causal trees, rejecting some trees and accepting others based on whatever evidence it is fed?

Or even a causal tool for an LLM agent that operates like what it does when you ask it about math and forwards the request to Wolfram.

blackbear_ · 11 days ago
In principle this is possible, modulo scalability concerns: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2506.06039

Perhaps this will one day become a new post-training task

blackbear_ commented on How attention sinks keep language models stable   hanlab.mit.edu/blog/strea... · Posted by u/pr337h4m
xg15 · 18 days ago
I wonder if the model could also just make its own sink tokens if the prompt doesn't have any. E.g. if the model first emits some "fluff" like "The answer to this question is:" before starting with the actual answer, it could use those tokens as attention sinks. Same with "thinking tokens" that don't directly contribute to the answer or invisible formatting tokens, etc.
blackbear_ · 17 days ago
Good thought, that indeed works: https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.02226
blackbear_ commented on What is the average length of a queue of cars? (2023)   e-dorigatti.github.io/mat... · Posted by u/alexmolas
shawabawa3 · 19 days ago
> Moreover, if the reasoning above was correct, observing a queue of 22,849 cars would be essentially impossible!

One of the cars in the 100,000 cars is going to be the slowest car, and when that car appears every car behind it will join that queue

So on average wouldn't you expect there to be one large queue of 50,000 cars at the back?

blackbear_ · 19 days ago
No because the number of cars in each simulation not fixed. There are 100,000 simulations, but each simulation runs until a car slower than the first appear.
blackbear_ commented on Scientific fraud has become an 'industry,' analysis finds   science.org/content/artic... · Posted by u/pseudolus
lazystar · 21 days ago
ya know... i wonder if this is how a religion is formed. at the start, science was about identifying and explaining the things that were true, observable, and agreed upon by all. anyone who was present at the birth of an event that caused a religion would have had that same mentality. over time, generations pass and the concept that held the group together has shifted - it now attempts to explain new concepts, and the scientists/priests that make up the governing body decide tge truth based on opinion, rather than fact.

the point is, we're on a dangerous path. if left unchecked, the term scientist will eventually have the same meaning as the word priest.

blackbear_ · 21 days ago
Not at all. Research that appears useful is going to be picked up by others, and if it's really a fraud it will be exposed eventually.

That is the check you are looking for and indeed how we realized there's some fraud and reproducibility issues, btw. I'll be waiting for the day actual religions gets the same level of scrutiny.

blackbear_ commented on Scientific fraud has become an 'industry,' analysis finds   science.org/content/artic... · Posted by u/pseudolus
bdisl · 21 days ago
The alternative is not trusting the science or the quacks.
blackbear_ · 21 days ago
Most people cannot tell those apart...

u/blackbear_

KarmaCake day1978April 27, 2017View Original