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banannaise commented on The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday   campedersen.com/singulari... · Posted by u/ecto
sempron64 · 7 hours ago
A hyperbolic curve doesn't have an underlying meaning modeling a process beyond being a curve which goes vertical at a chosen point. It's a bad curve to fit to a process. Exponentials make sense to model a compounding or self-improving process.
banannaise · 7 hours ago
You have not read far enough.
banannaise commented on The Singularity will occur on a Tuesday   campedersen.com/singulari... · Posted by u/ecto
banannaise · 8 hours ago
Yes, the mathematical assumptions are a bit suspect. Keep reading. It will make sense later.
banannaise commented on We will ban you and ridicule you in public if you waste our time on crap reports   curl.se/.well-known/secur... · Posted by u/latexr
freakynit · 20 days ago
Indian here (~15+ years in tech). I've seen this behavior a lot, and unfortunately, I did some of this myself earlier in my career.

Based on my own experience, here are a few reasons (could be a lot more):

1. Unlike most developed countries, in India (and many other develping countries), people in authority are expected to be respected unconditinally(almost). Questioning a manager, teacher, or senior is often seen as disrespect or incompetence. So, instead of asking for clarification, many people just "do something" and hope it is acceptable. You can think of this as a lighter version of Japanese office culture, but not limited to office... it's kind of everywhere in society.

2. Our education system mainly rewards results, not how good or well-thought-out the results are. Sure, better answers get more marks, but the gap between "okay" and "excellent" is usually not emphasized much. This comes from scale problems (huge number of students), very low median income (~$2400/year), and poorly trained teachers, especially outside big cities. Many teachers themselves memorize answers and expect matching output from students. This is slowly improving, but the damage is already there.

3. Pay in India is still severely (serioualy low, with 12-14+ hour work days, even more than 996 culture of China) low for most people, and the job market is extremely competitive. For many students and juniors, having a long list of "projects", PRs, or known names on their resume most often the only way to stand out. Quantity often wins over quality. With LLMs, this problem just got amplified.

Advice: If you want better results from Indian engineers(or designers or anyone else really), especially juniors (speaking as of now, things might change in near future), try to reduce the "authority" gap early on. Make it clear you are approachable and that asking questions is expected. For the first few weeks, work closely with them in the style you want them to follow.. they usually adapt very fast once they feel safe to do so.

banannaise · 19 days ago
> Advice: If you want better results from Indian engineers(or designers or anyone else really), especially juniors (speaking as of now, things might change in near future), try to reduce the "authority" gap early on. Make it clear you are approachable and that asking questions is expected. For the first few weeks, work closely with them in the style you want them to follow.. they usually adapt very fast once they feel safe to do so.

I've found that this is also true of American engineers, particularly those fresh out of college. So many people have internalized that open curiosity will yield no result at best and direct punishment at worst.

banannaise commented on The microstructure of wealth transfer in prediction markets   jbecker.dev/research/pred... · Posted by u/jonbecker
SleepySteve_sk · 21 days ago
I think of them as "Accountability" markets. Someone who can influence the outcome is encouraged to make a public bet on their success, and define what the success criteria is. The bet is then a means to hold them publicly accountable for doing what they said they would do. The market then becomes a voting machine for the public to decide if they think the person will succeed or not.
banannaise · 21 days ago
> The market then becomes a voting machine for the public to decide if they think the person will succeed or not.

Which would be great, if the mechanism and prize for "voting" were something other than people's basic means of survival.

Gambling addiction isn't bad because there's something wrong with predicting outcomes, it's bad because it causes people to lose all of their money.

"Kalshi, but with a maximum order size of $1" would be great. Kalshi, with a maximum order size of oh crap I can't pay my rent this month, is very bad!

banannaise commented on Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling   theatlantic.com/technolog... · Posted by u/krustyburger
hamdingers · 21 days ago
The game is still won through the application of skill even if the house chooses not to play it with you.
banannaise · 21 days ago
The house isn't a player. They offer the game for players to play. That is a fundamentally different role.

Saying that the house is playing the game against you is equivalent to saying that Nintendo is playing Super Mario Bros against you.

banannaise commented on Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling   theatlantic.com/technolog... · Posted by u/krustyburger
jbstack · 22 days ago
As a matter of adopting sensible definitions, I think you need to draw the line somewhere between what is gambling and what is not.

If the risk taken can, in principle, be shifted in your favour (i.e. to produce positive expectation) through application of skill, then it isn't gambling. For example, in my mind, betting on whether you will win a game of chess is not gambling. On the other hand, if you cannot influence the outcome in your favour through skill, then it is gambling. Roulette is generally a good example of this (with the caveat that in some very specific circumstances it's possible to beat with skill).

If we're limiting the definition to merely risk-taking (you might win or you might lose) without factoring in skill, then virtually everything in life becomes gambling. For example, you gamble when you deposit money in the bank because it might go bust.

There's also the legal definition, in which case it's just a matter of checking whether the jurisdiction you are in considers the activity to be gambling or not.

banannaise · 21 days ago
Talking about "traditional" sports gambling rather than prediction markets: how do we account for the heavy restrictions they place on "sharps" (consistent winners)? If a game can be won through application of skill, but winning through application of skill causes you to be effectively banned, then the game cannot be won through application of skill.
banannaise commented on The Palantir app helping ICE raids in Minneapolis   404media.co/elite-the-pal... · Posted by u/fajmccain
banannaise · a month ago
"Blocking traffic" is at this point a tired trope. Any sort of disruptive action is described as "blocking traffic", which is somehow framed as a form of violence. (My favorite version is when people argue that it is a form of unlawful detention akin to kidnapping.)

This would be more accurately framed as "parking illegally", which is the sort of thing for which you occasionally get a ticket placed under your windshield wiper, not the sort of thing for which armed, masked agents violently arrest you.

banannaise commented on Ozempic is changing the foods Americans buy   news.cornell.edu/stories/... · Posted by u/giuliomagnifico
bsder · a month ago
> They’re quite literally engineered so that you want to eat a lot of them and buy more.

Even if it's not intentional, I find that the enshittification seems to run along these lines.

The things that finally drove it home for me this year were "peppermint bark" and "ranch dip". I used to buy this stuff or use the premade. This year I worked out how to do them properly myself.

People raved about both. But I noticed that they ate far less of them (including myself!). My suspicion is that the difference was that I used actual chocolate and actual buttermilk. I suspect the extra fat made people sated and they quit eating afterward.

I'm finding this applicable to more and more foods. I'm no genius chef, but simply using standard ingredients causes people to eat very differently.

banannaise · a month ago
I'm beginning to strongly suspect that many foods are being engineered not to leave you satisfied but to leave you so close to satisfied. I never feel like I just got the perfect bite. My brain wants one more, chasing that perfect bite.

It's a worrisome addiction pattern. I'm still not sure if it indicates something that's been done to the food or a serious problem with my thought patterns.

banannaise commented on Bose has released API docs and opened the API for its EoL SoundTouch speakers   arstechnica.com/gadgets/2... · Posted by u/rayrey
fragmede · a month ago
Their financial incentive is negative. They were hoping to force everyone to buy new speakers, driving sales. But if the community is able to get open source firmware to run spotifyd on them, there is a non-zero (not everyone, but it's non-zero) amount of people that will just not buy new speakers from them.
banannaise · a month ago
This is why I said "direct". This is an indirect financial incentive, and there are other indirect financial incentives at play here (as others have noted).
banannaise commented on Bose has released API docs and opened the API for its EoL SoundTouch speakers   arstechnica.com/gadgets/2... · Posted by u/rayrey
Wafje · a month ago
Bose should not receive praise for this move. Bose only took this action after community backlash. In an older version of their end-of-life announcement, most functionality of the speaker systems would have removed and transformed the devices into dumb-speakers/amps.

Good that they changed their statement and took the right action. Even better for the community for stepping up and 'forcing' Bose to do so.

Sources: https://web.archive.org/web/20251201051242/https://www.bose....https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2025/10/bose-soundtouch-home...

banannaise · a month ago
Don't punish the behavior you want to see. Would we rather they defaulted there? Sure. But it's arguably an even better signal to see that they're willing to listen to their customers even when there is no direct financial incentive for them.

u/banannaise

KarmaCake day1964July 30, 2019View Original