appleiigs (u/appleiigs)

appleiigs commented on US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says marketscreener.com/news/u... · Posted by u/JumpCrisscross

codethief · 4 days ago

> And LBO debt isn’t “pushed” onto the company’s books, it’s never on the sponsor’s (LBO shop’s) books in the first place to any material extent.

Doesn't the LBO shop still need to pay off the debt, technically speaking? AFAIU the company's assets (hospital in OP's example) are used as collateral in a credit agreement between the LBO shop (as the hospital's new shareholder) and the bank. But unless I'm mistaken, this is not exactly the same as the debt being on the hospital's books and the hospital having a credit agreement with the bank. (For an increase in debt on the liabilities side of the balance sheet there would have to be an equal increase of assets on the other side. The hospital didn't receive the cash, though, nor does the hospital suddenly own itself.)

appleiigs · 3 days ago

LBO firm will create a new company called Acquisition Co. ("AcqCo") and put $500K of cash into it (equity). The Blue Owl will lend $2M to AcqCo (debt). AcqCo uses the $2.5M to buy the vet clinic. AcqCo will use cash flow from vet clinic to pay Blue Owl loan interest. If AI makes vet clinic lose revenue because customers treat Fluffy's ear infection at home, then Blue Owl and LBO firm are in trouble.

So the debt isn't "pushed" and it's not risk-free as the original comment said... also not Venture Capital. Lots wrong in that comment.

appleiigs commented on IBM CEO says there is 'no way' spending on AI data centers will pay off businessinsider.com/ibm-c... · Posted by u/nabla9

martinald · 3 months ago

I disagree on that and covered a lot of it in this blog (sorry for the plug!) https://martinalderson.com/posts/are-we-really-repeating-the...

appleiigs · 3 months ago

Your blog article stopped at token generation... you need to continue to revenue per token. Then go even further... The revenue for AI company is a cost for the AI customer. Where is the AI customer going to get incremental profits from the cost of AI.

For short searches, the revenue per token is zero. The next step is $20 per month. For coding it's $100 per month. With the competition between Gemini, Grok, ChatGPT... it's not going higher. Maybe it goes lower since it's part of Google's playbook to give away things for free.

appleiigs commented on J.P. Morgan's OpenAI loan is strange marketunpack.com/j-p-morg... · Posted by u/vrnvu

seanhunter · 5 months ago

What a weird analysis.

A company that has revenues and is extremely well-capitalized gets debt finance. That is not news. That is totally commonplace. "Shouldn't all their capital come from investors?" No. Companies at all stages typically use a mixture of debt and equity finance.

His EV calculation is completely flawed also. Debt finance is typically senior to equity in recovery at bankruptcy, so when JPMC do this analysis (and believe me they did this analysis) they are not assuming 0% recovery. They are thinking it is most likely in a bankruptcy that they get some x>0% recovery.

Finally, banks don't think about their relationship with a multi-billion-dollar company in terms of the ROI on a single revolving credit. (even though this will in all likelihood be very profitable for JPMC). They think about how giving this revolving credit makes it more likely they get advisory on any future bond issuance and I-banking work when OpenAI want to do takeovers, and a foot in the door at IPO time etc.

appleiigs · 5 months ago

Yeah, I thought it was weird right away too, but brush it off as a tech blog... but then I realized it's actually a finance website. Ruins the credibility of the website instantly.

The $4B revolver will likely sit undrawn. When it gets drawn, there usually a specific plan to reduce it back to zero. It's not for building data centres, a revolver typically used just for timing differences like a credit card is used (and the lenders will be paying attention). Also, when things get bad, there are covenant triggers which would allow lenders to renegotiate.

appleiigs commented on Apple introduces a universal design across platforms apple.com/newsroom/2025/0... · Posted by u/meetpateltech

appleiigs · 9 months ago

It's button camouflage.

My 82 year old mother has enough trouble figuring out what is a button vs. what's not. She just taps everything on screen to find out. This is going to make it worse.

appleiigs commented on Taxes and fees not included: T-Mobile's latest price lock is nearly meaningless arstechnica.com/tech-poli... · Posted by u/hn_acker

appleiigs · 10 months ago

It's not only meaningless due to T-Mobile being untrustworthy, it's meaningless if it's for a specific network speed or volume. For example, would 3G and a 2GB plan for $50 lifetime guarantee be useful?

appleiigs commented on Preferring throwaway code over design docs softwaredoug.com/blog/202... · Posted by u/softwaredoug

lmm · a year ago

> Super tedious, but way better than using throwaway code. Not over-planning feels lazy to me now

How was it better? I think a lot of people plan precisely because it feels virtuous, but that's true regardless of whether it's effective or not.

appleiigs · a year ago

My boss would take a piece of data/input and run it through the entire process. It's a string data here, converts to number here, function transforms it here, summarized here, output format there... You wouldn't run into data type issues or have an epiphany that you're missing a data requirement.

appleiigs commented on Preferring throwaway code over design docs softwaredoug.com/blog/202... · Posted by u/softwaredoug

marcosdumay · a year ago

And for them to be listened to, what is independent on how well they communicate; and for them to be aligned with the most powerful stakeholder, what is almost never the case; and for no big change to happen in an uncontrolled way, what powerful people nowadays seem intent on causing all the time.

appleiigs · a year ago

If you create the plan like a mathematical formula like my boss did, the evidence becomes irrefutable... like a mathematical proof. The article does mention that the plan is communication tool.

appleiigs commented on Preferring throwaway code over design docs softwaredoug.com/blog/202... · Posted by u/softwaredoug

ElatedOwl · a year ago

Writing is really beneficial for exploring the problem space.

Many times I’ve confidently thought I understood a problem, started writing about it, and come away with new critical questions. These things are typically more visible from the abstract, or might not become apparent in the first few release milestones of work.

I’m reminded of a mentor in my career, who had designed an active/active setup retroactively for a payment gateway. He pulls up a Lucidchart and says “this diagram represents 6 months of my life”.

They’re not always necessary or helpful. But when they are you can save weeks of coding with a few days of planning.

appleiigs · a year ago

I had a boss who had a math degree. He'd map out the flow from start to finish on a whiteboard like you see mathematicians on TV/movies. Always had the smoothest projects because he could foresee problems way in advance. If there was a problem or uncertainty identified, we'd just model that part. Then go back to whiteboard and continue.

An analogy is planning a road trip with a map. The way design docs most are built now, it shows the path and you start driving. Whereas my bosses whiteboard maps "over-planned" where you'd stop for fuel, attraction hours, docs required to cross border, budget $ for everything, emergency kit, Plan A, Plan B.

Super tedious, but way better than using throwaway code. Not over-planning feels lazy to me now

Sure, everyone has a plan until you get punched in the mouth; however, that saying applies to war, politics, negotiations, but not coding.

appleiigs commented on 'I grew up with it': readers on the enduring appeal of Microsoft Excel theguardian.com/technolog... · Posted by u/iechoz6H

radpanda · a year ago

I’m not the commenter that you’re replying to but I always get a different “feel” when using a native application like Excel than a web app. I can type as fast as I can think, switching cells, typing values, invoking keyboard shortcuts, etc, and every keystroke is interpreted as I intended. It’s incredible what’s been achieved in modern web apps like Google Sheets, but I still feel like I need to slow down at times to watch what the app is up to - making sure the cell was selected in the UI before entering text or watching to be sure the browser didn’t intercept a shortcut, etc.

appleiigs · a year ago

If any Excel alternative wants to make a dent in market share, they need an option for users to mimic all the main Excel shortcuts. Google Sheets is close so it's useable; however, trying to use something like Apple Numbers is like switching from querty to dvorak.

appleiigs commented on Using an 8K TV as a Monitor daniel.lawrence.lu/blog/y... · Posted by u/ingve

exitb · a year ago

After 15 years of having a desk job I find that I’m more sensitive to the position I sit in. My back feels a lot better if I have a single, regular sized screen right in front of me, instead of having additional screen estate on the sides or below (as with a laptop).

At the same time I use virtual desktops that I can switch with both keyboard and mouse.

appleiigs · a year ago

The general advice is to have top of monitor at eye level, but it's been wrong advice for me personally. I now put the middle of the monitor at eye level. Keeps my head up and posture better. Leaning back instead of stooping.