andyidsinga (u/andyidsinga)

andyidsinga commented on Driverless cars are stuck in a jam economist.com/leaders/201... · Posted by u/scottlocklin

crocal · 6 years ago

The article misses an important point. It’s not only a problem of technology, it’s also a problem of risk acceptance. While we accept to be killed by our own mistakes at the wheel, society (we) will not accept that a machine makes the same, even if the failure rate is on average /better/. This is the fundamental issue Elon Musk has. The driverless bar for safety is way higher than very clever driver assistance or even rocket science.

andyidsinga · 6 years ago

it seems the bar should be that high as that is what the hype has told us we would be getting. I'm OK with it being as good as the hype ...and when it isn't the companies that write the software and build the cars can pay for the damage

andyidsinga commented on 1,000 True Fans (2008) kk.org/thetechnium/1000-t... · Posted by u/bueckling

chasing · 6 years ago

Thoughtful reply!

The very first paragraph of his article says:

> To be a successful creator you don’t need millions. You don’t need millions of dollars or millions of customers, millions of clients or millions of fans. To make a living as a craftsperson, photographer, musician, designer, author, animator, app maker, entrepreneur, or inventor you need only thousands of true fans.

So, I would argue that creating a successful YouTube channel is almost the opposite of taking the "make 1000 true fans" path to success. YouTube promotes content in ways that causes a massive block of users -- millions, often -- to be casually exposed to a given video or channel. And hopefully some of them subscribe, watch ads, and maybe sign up for the creator's Patreon or something. But this isn't what Kelly describes.

Blasting your work out to millions in the hopes that thousands become "true fans" is a very well-known and well-worn path to success. And, frankly, still a hard one. Unless you happen to get YouTube's algorithm or HBO or Capitol Records to pick you up and give your work a massive promotional boost. And even then I suspect it's tough.

andyidsinga · 6 years ago

hmm... so, yeah, nothing about 1000 true fans theory points to it being an easy path. Making a living as some sort of creator is hard. The platforms & "the internet (tm)" just provide a plausible access to those fans vs old-media mechanisms.

andyidsinga commented on 1,000 True Fans (2008) kk.org/thetechnium/1000-t... · Posted by u/bueckling

chasing · 6 years ago

This again.

> Every thing made, or thought of, can interest at least one person in a million — it’s a low bar. Yet if even only one out of million people were interested, that’s potentially 7,000 people on the planet. That means that any 1-in-a-million appeal can find 1,000 true fans. The trick is to practically find those fans, or more accurately, to have them find you.

No. This is not how anything works, as almost anyone attempting to work in the art world implicitly understands. If there are 7,000 people globally who might be interested in your work, it would take a massive global campaign to find them. Which most people can't afford, especially not for a "this appeals to 7,000 people" idea.

> Now here’s the thing; the big corporations, the intermediates, the commercial producers, are all under-equipped and ill suited to connect with these thousand true fans.

No, they are the ones most empowered to connect with those thousand true fans. They have resources and global reach.

For normal people without those resources, "true fans" generally come from personal connections, in my experience. And even if one gathers up thousands of personal connections, it can be really hard to convince even close friends to be interested in spending their time or money on what you're doing.

> The takeaway: 1,000 true fans is an alternative path to success other than stardom.

No, it is stardom. you don't have 1,000 true fans without having 10,000 or 100,000 casual fans.

Argh.

Anyway, I'm not saying passionate people can't support themselves on their art or personal project or whatever -- obviously it's completely possible and people do it all the time. But this "1000 true fans" thing is not a useful tool for getting there, in my very humble opinion.

andyidsinga · 6 years ago

disagree with some points here.

I watch many youtube channels with 100Ks of subscribers. Those creators are not out there spending resources getting an audience and those audiences are not coming from personal connections - the platforms are facilitating the connection.

Re : how "attempting to work in the art world" works : this is a very interesting subject/discussion - at what point is someone regularly publishing entertaining youtube videos about small engine repair "working in the art world"? When they get enough income to quit their day job or some lower bar - I dunno - both ? neither / never?

Re stardom: what you're saying is 1000 true fans != total number of fans/casual followers. Agreed.

andyidsinga commented on Paged Out – a new experimental magazine about programming pagedout.institute... · Posted by u/krzkaczor

andyidsinga · 6 years ago

this is very 2600 - nooice.

andyidsinga commented on Whale 'swallows' sea lion: 'It was a once-in-a-lifetime event' bbc.com/news/newsbeat-491... · Posted by u/pseudolus

andyidsinga · 6 years ago

so, I've been near sea lions on the Oregon coast - the males can be large and many 100s of pounds (bigger than actual Lions!) and rather intimidating. This picture of the whale's mouth with a sea lion in it really puts into perspective how big the whale is.

andyidsinga commented on Employee happiness and business success are linked economist.com/business/20... · Posted by u/benryon

achenatx · 6 years ago

I use a book called "first break all the rules"

It is also based on gallup data. They determined that employee happiness was not correlated to company success. They did find that the following questions in order were highly correlated to company success.

1. Do I know what is expected of me at work?

2. Do I have the materials and equipment I need to do my work right?

3. At work, do I have the opportunity to do what I do best every day?

4. In the last seven days, have I received recognition or praise for doing good work?

5. Does my supervisor, or someone at work, seem to care about me as a person?

6. Is there someone at work who encourages my development?

7. At work, do my opinions seem to count?

8. Does the mission/purpose of my company make me feel my job is important?

9. Are my co-workers committed to doing quality work?

10. Do I have a best friend at work?

11. In the last six months, has someone at work talked to me about my progress?

12. This last year, have I had opportunities at work to learn and grow?

andyidsinga · 6 years ago

I've read the cliff-notes version of first break all the rules. (its floating around the web). It has the list - and also interesting discussion of talent and having employees in positions where their talents are used. IIRC - it also suggests never trying to change people - which I've taken to heart in both work and personal aspects of my life.

andyidsinga commented on Border Collie Trained to Recognize 1,022 Nouns Dies nytimes.com/2019/07/27/sc... · Posted by u/pseudolus

andyidsinga · 6 years ago

I have two Australian shepherds - One of them was a puppy when I read the book about Chaser. So I decide to try to sort-of reproduce some of the author's experiments with my dog - and I'll be damned if it didn't work.

I didn't go to near the extent of the training John Pilley did with Chaser, but I did do the verbal only approach and put the toys in another room - and I was able to teach him to retrieve probably 5 or 10 toys by name. I was really amazed. I didn't do nearly as much training with the second Aussie - but she picked up on the whole game even quicker than the first dog (because she had a role model?).

Another thing I learned about this game/training : it really wears the dog out. After 20 or so minutes of playing "go find the toy" they dogs lay down for a nap.

(ps. doing "nose-work" games with dogs also wears them out)

andyidsinga commented on Microsoft Flight Simulator fsi.microsoftstudios.com/... · Posted by u/doener

andyidsinga · 6 years ago

I'm really glad this is coming back - I've bought it several times over the years and really enjoyed flying it. In more recent versions using the ATC and trying to make it as realistic as possible experience - flying around between nearby local airports.

andyidsinga commented on Gorilla Youngsters Seen Dismantling Poachers’ Traps (2012) news.nationalgeographic.c... · Posted by u/johnny313

andyidsinga · 6 years ago

From the article:

>"If we could get more of them doing it, it would be great," he joked.

>Karisoke's Vecellio, though, said actively instructing the apes would be against the center's ethos.

>"No we can't teach them," she said. "We try as much as we can to not interfere with the gorillas. We don't want to affect their natural behavior."

I wonder if this "prime-directive" style rule might be something they consider changed - if there was a way to teach the gorillas to disabled various kinds of traps it seems that would be great.

On the other hand, I wonder what the side effects would be.. anyone?

andyidsinga commented on I Sell Onions on the Internet deepsouthventures.com/i-s... · Posted by u/eightturn

notafraudster · 6 years ago

Napkin math:

One million Euro a year gross would imply more or less 3000 Euro a day. Open for 12 hours a day, that's 250 Euro an hour. At 15 Euro a crepe, that's a customer every 4 minutes the whole day. That would be a truly phenomenal success.

And that's gross. If you assume 50% margin on cost (insanely high) and that cost includes the apparently very high employee salaries. Then they need a customer every two minutes for the day. Let's say taxes take half of their net before taxes. they now need a customer every minute for 12 hours every day of the year to hit a million Euro net. All under a series of assumptions that are extremely generous to the firm.

It's hard to imagine that this story, if true, didn't involve an embellishment of scale.

andyidsinga · 6 years ago

Hmm - here's how I did the back of napkin math:

1,000,000 gross in a peak year.

say business is open 290 days of the year.

avg per day = 3448 euro

if average customer order spend is ~15 euro, that's ~230 orders per day that must be made to sustain the 1mm euro gross.

So - if the biz is open 6 hours (optimized around eating times) - that would be ~38 orders/hour.

Key Questions: for the average case : is 38 orders/hour OR 230 orders/day reasonable or not?

for the non-average case: can they make 2x the orders really busy days - i.e. what is the absolute peak orders than can make in a day?