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alexk307 commented on Severe turbulence forces Delta A330 to make emergency landing, 25 injured   theguardian.com/world/202... · Posted by u/voxadam
dagmx · a month ago
Ah fair call out about it being a convective storm, but those have even more evidence of worsening relative to climate change.
alexk307 · a month ago
Not according to the IPCC:

> Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms that combine tornadoes, hail, and winds (high confidence), but there is low confidence in the details of the projected increase.

The models project it, but there is currently low confidence in the increase.

alexk307 commented on Severe turbulence forces Delta A330 to make emergency landing, 25 injured   theguardian.com/world/202... · Posted by u/voxadam
plucas · a month ago
This study from the University of Reading found that severe turbulence has indeed increased significantly and measurably over the last 40 years: https://research.reading.ac.uk/research-blog/2023/06/28/avia...
alexk307 · a month ago
But that's not what the paper says. It says Clear Air Turbulence (CAT) has gotten worse, not all types of turbulence. In this case, the flight flew through a convective storm.

Even so, the paper says there's been a 0.2-0.3% change in CAT:

> The largest increases in both absolute and relative MOG CAT were found over the North Atlantic and continental United States, with statistically significant absolute increases of 0.3% (26 hr) and 0.22% (19 hr), respectively, over the total reanalysis period.

alexk307 commented on Severe turbulence forces Delta A330 to make emergency landing, 25 injured   theguardian.com/world/202... · Posted by u/voxadam
dagmx · a month ago
Would you like to refute their claim?

Climate change causing turbulence increase is well acknowledged https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240524-severe-turbulenc...

alexk307 · a month ago
That paper has nothing to do with the incident in question. You're referencing a BBC article that references a paper stating that Clear Air Turbulence is getting worse [1]

> Turbulence is unpleasant to fly through in an aircraft. Strong turbulence can even injure air passengers and flight attendants. An invisible form called clear-air turbulence

But in the incident in question, the plane flew directly through a convective storm.

[1] https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL10...

alexk307 commented on BYD's New 'Megawatt' EV Charging Is So Fast It Makes Gas Irrelevant   insideevs.com/news/753913... · Posted by u/01-_-
alexk307 · 5 months ago
Great! Now I'll just wait 10 years and pay double the price to get this in the US...
alexk307 commented on Hurricane season has flatlined. When will it roar back to life?   washingtonpost.com/weathe... · Posted by u/howard941
bloopernova · a year ago
Very cool way of charting the energy used by cyclones, mentioned in the article, Accumulated Cyclone Energy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

I don't suppose anyone knows where to find this graph but for different years?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://...

Edited to add, this might be the source of the image above, but no charts for previous years: https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=...

alexk307 commented on Houston-area residents enter sixth day without power, air conditioning   cnn.com/2024/07/13/weathe... · Posted by u/rntn
Dylan16807 · a year ago
They said a multi year batch of storms was climate change induced. That's significantly more valid than saying a specific normal-size storm is. The dice even out as you add more samples.

I don't want to look for papers right now. Ask them about the claim that "This has been a well-publicized problem there since at least the 1990's", not me.

My point is that you definitely can prove (or disprove) it. Your claim that it's unprovable on purpose or something is not right.

alexk307 · a year ago
But that's absurd to think that you can make claims about the climate based off of a few years worth of data. Multidecadal variance is part of the climate system.

Hurricanes in the US are basically flat [1][2][3]. The past thousand years have seen wild swings, but it's due to natural variability [4].

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/hurricane-landfalls-us [2] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurric... [3] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24268-5#Sec2 [4] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-45112-6

alexk307 commented on Houston-area residents enter sixth day without power, air conditioning   cnn.com/2024/07/13/weathe... · Posted by u/rntn
Dylan16807 · a year ago
You use statistics.

Demanding the answer for specific storms is like demanding to know whether a smoker's lung cancer was caused by smoking. Maybe?? But we know in aggregate smoking caused an enormous amount of deaths. We can measure the number of smoking-induced deaths, and the number of climate-changed-induced storms.

alexk307 · a year ago
I understand the concept, but please show me the statistics that show that storms are increasing in quantity or severity on a timescale consistent with anthropogenic warming.

OP said that specific storms are climate induced - there is no way of saying that a storm formed due to climate change when it would not have formed in the absence.

alexk307 commented on Houston-area residents enter sixth day without power, air conditioning   cnn.com/2024/07/13/weathe... · Posted by u/rntn
ifyoubuildit · a year ago
I also wondered this. How do you tell the difference between a climate change induced typhoon and the alternative? Maybe its obvious to the down voters, but you have at least two people here you could potentially teach something to.
alexk307 · a year ago
You don't - that's the point.
alexk307 commented on The Invisible Hand of Carbon Dioxide on Forest Productivity   eos.org/editor-highlights... · Posted by u/Brajeshwar
ralusek · a year ago
I will repeat something I’ve said before, because many people don’t realize this: since the start of the industrial revolution, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has DOUBLED.

I think that it’s perfectly fine to speculate as to whether or not that will be a problem, but I find that fact alone to be remarkable. I can’t imagine a way, with systems as complex as climate and biology, that wouldn’t have some very complex downstream effects.

alexk307 · a year ago
C02 has not doubled yet. We started at 280ppm, we're on to 425ppm.

u/alexk307

KarmaCake day571June 3, 2016View Original