Bitcoin will probably always outshine the other "just coins" because it was the first. Why get another coin if this one works fine for monetary transactions?
Similarly with the functional ones: Ethereum will probably always outshine the other "Global Turing Machines" because it was the first. We don't really need another one—assuming it can adapt to changes in efficiency with hard-forks as needed.
The rest of them really ought to provide another service underneath to become valuable.
We didn't need the first one.
Maybe that means something, maybe it doesn't. If I had some way of knowing, I'd have a lot more money than I am now. It's worth remembering, though, that prices are just that: prices. Nothing more, nothing less.
Well those two performed pretty damn spectacularly in the past 20 years.
However, I do try to self adjust for that bias. When I mined the coins it was a neat concept, but bitcoin wasn't at all practical then and it isn't at all practical now.
I sold it all back then for a few reasons.
- I believed other tech nerds would come to the same conclusion.
- It would never reach main stream adoption because of how utterly impractical it actually is.
- I thought that governments would crack down on it pretty hard, pushing it further into the fringe communities.
I was definitely wrong about governments cracking down and the novelty of bitcoin has definitely caught the interest of many and that has caused many chain reactions of the price going up.
I still think bitcoin is basically useless, but I severely didn't properly estimate that just it being interesting would make it so valuable.
Bitcoin truly is extremely interesting, and the vast majority don't try to understand it at all. So while it may in fact be useless, that does not actually matter for the price to go up.
In the end the only thing I kick myself for was looking at it objectively. Bitcoin wasting untold amount of energy, low transaction rate, high wait times for confirmation, high transaction fees, ever growing public transaction history, long cryptographic identifiers for receiving and sending, and so on do not actually matter.
Not rebuying is because I still have hope that people will come to their senses. But my stubbornness has not made me rich.
As if there's a better alternative.
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On unbanked exchanges this is true. However the next step is that people will transfer those inflated assets to banked exchanges to exchange them for fiat, pushing the price down. See Gox, Mt.
– Paul Kedrosky
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> But currency is different - opposite even. If supply goes through the roof - then demand will respond inversely.
This is terrible reasoning. It depends on why that supply is going through the roof. Maybe the supply is increasing because of higher demand? (Hint: increased demand for the USD is why the Fed is increasing the supply -- to keep the price stable.)
The phenomenon you're referring to is that, with all else equal, people will shift away from the USD if supply increases make the USD's value drop. But all else is not equal; demand for USD last year effected all-time high issuings of stocks and bonds.
Or, another way I could interpret this sentence is that you are claiming that the USD is not an ordinary good. Do you have some evidence to back that up?
> What is actually happening empirically is that people are coming to see Bitcoin as a reliable store of value over medium to long timeframes.
"Happening empirically." Have some numbers to back that up?
Oh yeah, good luck taking vacations in Europe this year.