I think you're more likely to see an effect if you can somehow capture how far a solo founder gets before they need to bring on the second employee. Because LLMs aren't better than me at my job, but they are better than me at many jobs which I can tolerate being done poorly.
If there is a significant technological shift, it'll be when those startups start outperforming the ones for which LLMs weren't available at the start.
Yet sometimes less is more anyway, and I've been using Void Linux recently. Feels like the linux distros I grew up with, just better.
Maybe you're the one who is sidetracked with politics.
I think if we want to distribute the means of computational production, a better approach would be to print oligonucleotide instructions (requires a custom inkjet printer), and use a cell free extract (e. coli would work) to synthesize proteins which are programmed to assemble the computational substrate from nanoparticles.
Something along these lines: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1422649112
If most people can reason about the current historical moment as it relates to policy decisions, well I guess that's an equally dangerous sort of problem.
It already worries me that the Cursor agents occasionally try to perform operations with full absolute paths, which they wouldn't be able to know if they were properly sandboxed to the current directory.
My favorite one of these is when I was having Claude write a nix derivation to package kustomize at 4.5.5 and instead of getting the correct source version and building it, it just set some build args on the latest version to override the output of the --version CLI flag.
Whenever I hear someone telling me they have nothing to hide, I ask them to unlock their phone and hand it to me. The joke still goes over people heads sometimes.
I have rather little to hide myself but I want desperately for you to be able to hide something. Otherwise we're together a worse deterrent against authorities behaving badly as we would otherwise be.
Sql migrations? This is a solved problem: https://github.com/flyway/flyway
What about micro services? You write some terraform to provision a sql database (e.g. aws aurora) just like you would with dynamo db or similar. What does that have to do with ORMs?
What about redis? Suddenly we need an ORM to query redis, to check if a key exists in the cache before hitting our DB? That’s difficult code to write?
I’m confused reading your comment. It has “you don’t do things my way so you must be dumb and playing with toy projects” vibes.
You just shift the emissions from your location to the location that you buy products from.
Basically what happened in Germany: more expensive "clean" energy means their own production went down and the world bought more from China instead. The net result is probably higher global emissions overall.
We need a system where being known as somebody who causes more problems than they solve puts you (and the people you've done business with) at an economic disadvantage.