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Mutjake commented on ETFs now hold more than $3.1T worth of just top US companies   signalbloom.ai/etf/stats... · Posted by u/GodelNumbering
ttul · 4 months ago
The Roku example perfectly illustrates the deeper issue here - we're seeing a systemic breakdown in capital allocation that goes beyond the passive/active debate.

The real problem is a feedback loop: large companies get cheaper capital → they can afford to hoard cash and make defensive acquisitions → this reduces competition and innovation → which paradoxically makes them even "safer" investments → reinforcing their cost-of-capital advantage.

Meanwhile, the "missing middle" gets squeezed from both ends. Small companies can access some capital through VC/growth equity, but medium enterprises ($10M-$1B revenue) face a brutal gap. They're too big for most VCs, too small for institutional debt markets, and banks are increasingly consolidated and risk-averse.

(I am so personally familiar with the missing middle in my day job)

This isn't just about market efficiency - it's about market structure. When a streaming company parks $500M in bank accounts instead of investing in content or technology, that's not rational capital allocation. It's defensive positioning enabled by cheap capital and regulatory capture. There are many many lazy companies sitting on a cash machine structure with no decent ideas on how to grow.

Some potential fixes: - Tax policy that penalizes excessive cash hoarding; eliminating the tax deduction on interest would encourage companies to hold less cash by making cash more expansive

- Regulatory limits on horizontal acquisitions above certain market share thresholds

- Public development banks focused on the missing middle (like Germany's KfW)

- Capital gains tax advantages for investments held in companies under certain size thresholds

The irony is that this concentration might ultimately hurt passive investors too - less competition means less innovation and slower long-term growth across the entire economy.

Mutjake · 4 months ago
If some business is defensively buying off all the competition, that’s an easy ATM for a serial entrepreneur, especially if the large business is price gouging: found a competitor, grow it e.g. with some like-minded funding, sell it at a premium. Wait for the clauses of the contract to run out, and rinse and repeat.

The defensive acquisitions can work on domains with gravity effects to a degree, but those are domains are far from being the total market.

Mutjake commented on Economists don't know what's going on   economist.com/finance-and... · Posted by u/pseudolus
bhaney · 8 months ago
Business as usual then
Mutjake · 8 months ago
Complex systems are difficult to predict or reason about, especially in turbulent times, and when only partial information about the world is available, and only part of it is accurate. Nothing new under the sun. If you’d always know what’s going on, you could categorically beat the market or make central planning to work flawlessly.
Mutjake commented on The Ozempocalypse Is Nigh   astralcodexten.com/p/the-... · Posted by u/impish9208
noduerme · 9 months ago
Knowing a couple people who've done it, they do it for a few months to lose weight, then stop taking it and try not to gain the weight back. I don't know anyone who's chosen to go on it permanently.
Mutjake · 9 months ago
Well, it’s a medication designed for diabetes (the weight loss variant has a higher dosage and different brand name, Wegowy or so), and for diabetes the usage is, by default, permanent. Unless it is replaced by other medication or if the lifestyle changes make the insulin resistance not be an issue any more.
Mutjake commented on Sweden Investigates New Cable Break Under Baltic Sea   nytimes.com/2025/02/21/wo... · Posted by u/xnx
toomuchtodo · 10 months ago
Not OP, but the facts are that while Russia is rapidly exhausting its military hardware (which can be independently verified), Europe has relied perhaps too heavily on the US defense industry for military hardware and capabilities. This works fine when there is a good relationship with the US, but does not work when regime change occurs and the US takes an adversarial posture with its supposed allies. If your friend no longer offers to equip you for defense and war, you should be prepared to build your own. Otherwise, you've already lost.

Russia isn't going to win, it's going to slow burn to failure (again, military hardware exhaustion, parts of their economy on the brink of failure, working age demographics crisis leading to ~21% central bank rates to attempt to quell inflation to no avail), but Europe improving its military capabilities would derisk against potential tail risk aggression and losses as Russia stumbles to a failure mode. Putin will die eventually, although it is unknown who and what replaces him; Europe must manage that risk.

Europe is learning the hard way that you can't use economics to tame an aggressor (Nord Stream) nor can you rely on benevolent allies to be benevolent in perpetuity. This is objectively good, as it will force Europe to re-industrialize to an extent, and I argue manufacturing base and supply chains are of national security interest (gestures broadly at everything). Not your manufacturing base and supply chain? Not your freedom.

Mutjake · 10 months ago
The unfortunate side-effect is also that as US does not honor guarantees given in the Budapest memorandum, no country is going to give up nuclear weapons trusting contracts, and that European nation states (and possibly Canada, Mexico) will draw the conclusions on how to best get functional security guarantees ie. have own nuclear stockpile. This has been the status quo USA has bought by being a security provider, and by betraying it the downside is to returning to the nuclear armageddon scare of the cold war — if a European country nukes Russian territory, the retaliation might well bite back to the US soil. If Europe got too cozy with conventional warfare capabilities, the US got too cozy with the idea that they’re providing security out of the goodness of their hearts instead of it being a geopolitical bargain where they receive certain advantages as well.
Mutjake commented on WebVM is a server-less virtual Linux environment running client-side   webvm.io/... · Posted by u/sebg
vincentkriek · a year ago
IRC has no chat history either, right. I get the simplicity of IRC but searchable history is a bonus for Discord. As long as the service is available, searching is kinda possible. With irc you have to find out which bot provides history, which is then usually split over multiple files
Mutjake · a year ago
My client dies the logging, and I can e.g. grep decade old logs. I’m not sure if you can get same level of access to Discord logs (=export them). I guess Discord bot that logs everything as a historian is a partial solution (I guess log bot cannot catch DMs).
Mutjake commented on WebVM is a server-less virtual Linux environment running client-side   webvm.io/... · Posted by u/sebg
zja · a year ago
Answer to the second question is that no one uses IRC.

The trend of using discord over forums does suck though, it’s really hard to search old discussions.

Mutjake · a year ago
IRC <3 Still daily driving it with some friends. I wouldn’t be surprised if my Discord chat history was unavailable in a decade, so IRC is a nice option to run on the side. There’s value in simplicity, and I admit the risk of sounding like a tech hipster.
Mutjake commented on SQL is syntactic sugar for relational algebra   scattered-thoughts.net/wr... · Posted by u/dmarto
williamdclt · 2 years ago
DELETE FROM is even worse. Accidentally/mindlessly press cmd+enter before you wrote the WHERE? Poof, data gone. Make it FROM … DELETE!

I also wish we needed to explicitly take locks. In PostgreSQL at least (I think other dialects/engines too), figuring out what operation will take what lock and potentially mean downtime is left as an exercise to the reader. Force me to write WITH EXCLUSIVE TABLE LOCK when I add a non nullable column with a default!

Mutjake · 2 years ago
Well, to be fair ”from foo delete” would do the same I suppose :-D Unless there’d be an explicit end to the statement to designate you really want to delete everything. Which might not be a bad idea. Or make ”where …” mandatory and bring in ”delete_all” or ”delete everything from foo” as a syntactic guardrail. This is equally implementable, whichever the order of ”delete” and ”from” would be.
Mutjake commented on SQL is syntactic sugar for relational algebra   scattered-thoughts.net/wr... · Posted by u/dmarto
sherburt3 · 2 years ago
Strongly disagree, complete newbies can get up and running with SQL very quickly and it's expressive enough that experienced people can do things that no ORM would ever hope of being able to do. One criticism I have though is that whoever thought "SELECT" should come before "FROM" should be fired.
Mutjake · 2 years ago
I sort of feel the same…but on the other hand if you consider ”delete from” exists also, it’s not completely unsensible to consider you first tell what operation you’re about to perform to the data. Would be nice to start with the source entity name for sure. Dunno what ”select 1” would look like, I guess the from foo would be optional.

Random saturday ramblings, sorry about that :-D

Mutjake commented on US developers can offer non-app store purchasing, Apple still collect commission   macrumors.com/2024/01/16/... · Posted by u/virgildotcodes
Mutjake · 2 years ago
Probably an unpopular opinion, but as an Apple user it is okay for me to pay 30% extra (which I often do instead of using Android and getting certain apps for free), so I avoid having to sideload Epic/Facebook/whatnot stuff from their own mandatory app store + having the hassle of figuring out if there's a subscription model and how difficult it is to terminate, how to handle refunds, what darkpattern analytics are included in the appstore binary etc. etc.

If you need certain amount of money per user for the product to be profitable, raise the price to account for Apple's cut. But please do not force me to install app stores from companies which have their lifeblood in data brokering my life. At least I have an understanding with Apple that if they go haywire with that stuff (like it was close with the whole CSAM scanning debacle which damaged my trust in Apple and I started considering alternatives) they will lose my hardware purchases as well.

Mutjake commented on US developers can offer non-app store purchasing, Apple still collect commission   macrumors.com/2024/01/16/... · Posted by u/virgildotcodes
hn_throwaway_99 · 2 years ago
> The concept that Kroger (for instance) has a monopoly of customers in its own store is ridiculous. There are other stores, and other bazaars.

I'm not making the argument from a legal perspective, but from a reality perspective, I think that's a very poor analogy to the way operating systems (and "platforms" generally) work.

The very nature of operating systems is that they have much more control than a simple store. For example, if you want to switch from Kroger to Safeway, just go to Safeway. There are almost zero switching costs. I actually was strongly considering switching from Android to iPhone solely to get iMessage access (that's a whole different ball of Apple anti-competitiveness, but I digress...) But in the end, even after buying the iPhone, I decided to give it away as a Christmas gift because I just couldn't stomach how painful switching would be after a decade-plus history on Android: I'd lose all my Android apps, I'd lose all the easiest access to things that live in Google's ecosystem, I'd lose my day-to-day familiarity with my phone, etc. To be clear, I'm not saying that's impossible, but it's just a much higher burden that deciding to go to a different grocery store.

Note the government has often developed special laws for "platform businesses", for example railroads, telecoms, etc., understanding the unique positions these companies are in when it comes to controlling the larger economy. I wish they would regulate operating system platforms in a similar manner.

Mutjake · 2 years ago
I like to think this via car analogy: you have similar ecosystem with car infotainment system platforms, but there the cost of switching is often minimum tenfold. Game consoles are an analogous platform to phones with similar pricepoint in switching costs. Of course phones are much more present in our daily lives for the most part of the population. But I suppose the similar burden would easily hit those platforms if legislation would be imposed, and it would come with both upsides and downsides depending on one's viewpoint.

u/Mutjake

KarmaCake day147November 1, 2012
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