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Ilverin commented on The mythos of leadership   aeon.co/essays/who-are-th... · Posted by u/pepys
smoothjazz · 2 years ago
This rings true because as someone without a religious background, I definitely feel the opposite: that progress is inevitable and the people who are "in charge" while it progresses are a commodity. I also find the "deification" of leaders (like say Steve Jobs) to be damaging to culture, leading to arrogance, political fighting and empire building.

Trying to have a good life and be good to those around you, while riding on the one-way track of technological progress seems like a better strategy.

Ilverin · 2 years ago
Progress isn't inevitable because the government can stop it sometimes. Nuclear power is regulated to be forty times safer than natural gas (the safest natural gas) (the factor of forty is ignoring the additional climate costs), and that's why we don't have abundant nuclear power.
Ilverin commented on New GitHub Copilot research finds 'downward pressure on code quality'   visualstudiomagazine.com/... · Posted by u/ceejayoz
klipt · 2 years ago
It's true though, as human (+ tool) gets smarter, human (without tool) tends to get dumber in the domain the tool augments.

The question is will we one day have tools so powerful, that the human is vestigial, and tool (without human) is just as powerful and cheaper than tool (+ human)?

Ilverin · 2 years ago
This is the case today for ai chess engines
Ilverin commented on Pharmacology of Hallucinations   ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/arti... · Posted by u/andsoitis
aatd86 · 2 years ago
What if the brain can perceive more signals but that the most common signals are those that are "known" to be captured by the average of the population?

To put it another way, there could also be cases where what is deemed an hallucination isn't, but it might lead to psychosis if the subject doesn't know how to interpret the new signal.

To reason by analogy, that would be akin to everyone being blind and a couple people developping sight.

Whole point is that unless we can understand what the brain is doing, we simply observe a phenomenon but we don't know what the phenomenon actually is.

(not talking about drug induced hallucinations, just to be clear)

Ilverin · 2 years ago
There are plenty of good scientists and engineers who do psychedelics. If what you say were true, I think at least one of them would have figured out what the sense data is caused by in the environment and have set up a demo such that they can reliably react to a signal sent by a skeptical tester who turns the demo device's power switch off and on, in order to provide evidence to skeptics of their superior perception ability.
Ilverin commented on AI Doomers are worse than wrong – they're incompetent   infinitescroll.us/p/ai-do... · Posted by u/quantiq
Ilverin · 2 years ago
Openai employees had extreme leverage because they were (or at least appeared, by the number of signatures on the letter) united. They could just leave for another company (Microsoft or other) where they would not be at all controlled by AI safety people.

Openai investors had only the leverage of "we won't invest more and you're running an operating loss", they did not actually have a case in court. The investment contract they signed stated "view your investment as a donation" and "this investment confers no fiduciary duties from the board".

The board had the leverage of "you employees and investors value your stock holdings, and if the company fails, those stock holdings to to zero".

The resolution I think was (could be wrong) just to initially reduce the size of the board to three. So it isn't completely guaranteed which side won the battle for control: it's not impossible that the AI safety people might still control the board. Maybe one or both of the new board members is secretly convinced by the AI safety movement.

The battle for public opinion is a different battle, and it looks extremely likely that the AI safety people lost that battle. Maybe it was still worth it for them, if they did in fact win or at least stalemate the battle for control of openai.

Ilverin commented on James Webb Space Telescope finds 2 of the most distant galaxies ever seen   space.com/james-webb-spac... · Posted by u/Brajeshwar
chongli · 2 years ago
I think we can fight back against this to some extent. The most distant galaxies are fading due to increasing redshift. If we build larger and larger radio telescopes then we should be able to continue seeing them at longer wavelengths. If in a billion years we manage to colonize a substantial chunk of our galaxy then maybe we could build a gigantic radio telescope out of many small collectors spread out over several light years.
Ilverin · 2 years ago
You may be right, so I edited my comment.
Ilverin commented on James Webb Space Telescope finds 2 of the most distant galaxies ever seen   space.com/james-webb-spac... · Posted by u/Brajeshwar
mihaitodor · 2 years ago
I think it will take us a long time to map the entire “surface” of the visible sphere. Eventually, telescopes will be able to pick up some of the farthest galaxies, but there will always be one which might be a bit farther away, even if it won’t be orders of magnitude farther.
Ilverin · 2 years ago
The expansion of the universe is accelerating. At some point, the number of galaxies in the visible universe will stop growing and the light received from distant galaxies will grow more and more redshifted. However, it's possible that the redshifting will accelerate faster than our technological ability to detect more and more redshifted light.
Ilverin commented on New York Times tech workers to strike this afternoon   bloomberg.com/news/articl... · Posted by u/bwestergard
dgfitz · 2 years ago
How many people over 65 fit this description? [1]

I’m really tired of this narrative. Older people died by orders of magnitude more than younger or working class people. Orders of magnitude. Don’t try and say “hindsight is 20/20” because this was known from the start. Ask any nursing home.

This comment is NOT meant to at ALL be political. Fuck Covid. Fuck making masks a political issue. Fuck all the Covid deniers. Fuck the anti-vax people.

Covid killed old people and those with co-morbidity. If we took all the money given out and gave it ONLY to those people such that they were mandated stay home and survive, however that needed to happen to ensure they avoided infection, imagine how different the would world be right now. /rant

Unpopular opinion on this site and I expect I’ll see that reflected here.

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7218a4.htm#T1_down

Edit: typo

Ilverin · 2 years ago
A complication is that the employees who work in the nursing homes are likely to bring covid in if it is spreading in the community and the community is acting normally (eg parties are happening). Not to say that your plan wouldn't be overall better (I'm not sure), but just saying it would likely result in more death.
Ilverin commented on An antiquated law rules mining in the West   hcn.org/issues/55.8/infog... · Posted by u/bikenaga
55555 · 2 years ago
At the bottom of the article it states there’s a 15% royalty on oil etc and that there’s 2-3 billion USD of minerals produced from federal land annually. There’s also 11.36 million acres claimed with a $165 annual maintenance fee per acre for a total gov revenue of $1.875 billion not including the higher first-year claim fees. If there were no oil/gas/coal/fuel extraction on claimed lands, the effective royalty garnered by this system would be in excess of 50% (1.875/[2 to 3 billion]). More data — specially on annual fuel extraction from federal lands — is needed, but this article as it stands makes a terribly poor argument that the current state of economic affairs is a failure. The numbers actually imply this sort of gambling system may be better for the government than a royalty system.

This reminds me of how, according to my TikTok feed, Jade miners prefer to sell their extracted rocks to blind buyers for a fixed price per rock (only a few of which will be revealed to contain valuable jade once cut open) rather than cut them open themselves and only profit from the lucky few rocks. (Or maybe that’s just a small part of the business, as most other gemstone mining doesn’t seem to work that way).

Ilverin · 2 years ago
A)11.36 million acres refers to the land leased for either fuel or non-fuel minerals. So if you wanted to compare the size of the royalties to the annual fees for the land, you would need to figure out what percentage of the land was used for fuel versus non-fuel mining.

B) The $165 is per 20 acres, not per acre. "In FY 2022, the BLM collected a total of almost $94 million in fees associated with nearly 489,100 active mining claims on Federal lands"

Ilverin commented on Fed to Propose Lowering Debit-Card Swipe Fees   wsj.com/finance/regulatio... · Posted by u/impish9208
HDThoreaun · 2 years ago
Debit cards don't involve any debt. There's no reason lower fees would stop them from being able to get accounts, although some banks may protest.
Ilverin · 2 years ago
The article the commenter linked is almost entirely about debit cards. The bank has to make money somehow to pay for things like fraud and auditing.
Ilverin commented on How many medical studies are faked or flawed?   web.archive.org/web/20230... · Posted by u/PaulHoule
Tenoke · 2 years ago
A lot who stay purely in Academia do it as well, presumably for the prestige.
Ilverin · 2 years ago
Well you need peer reviewed papers in highish impact journals to get tenure. For some people, the only way they're getting that is by cheating.

u/Ilverin

KarmaCake day174December 30, 2012View Original