Fischgericht (u/Fischgericht)

Fischgericht commented on Suspending Duty-Free De Minimis Treatment for All Countries whitehouse.gov/presidenti... · Posted by u/jonbaer

patrickhogan1 · a month ago

Intel N100 devkits are primarily made in Oregon and Arizona in the US.

Realtek devkits are made in Taiwan.

China is clearly important. Nothing here changes that. Orders will just shift to bulk and get sourced from local distributors.

Fischgericht · a month ago

At least I have to order the devkits from China, can't get them from the US.

As you know, in practical terms china/taiwan/hongkong don't make a difference anymore when it comes to customs and shipping times.

But I understand and value that you understand the business, and we are looking at it from a different angle and potentially from inside/outside a bubble.

I understand your point that markets will adapt looking at it on a large scale. But the question is HOW the market is adapting. In the US far too many people are assuming that the world will bend for Trumpamerica.

In reality the world is at least in my industry is doing free-trade agreements in record time now. And the people in China I work with are not even thinking about the US market anymore at all. The future markets are elsewhere on this planet. What they care about is that the EU won't buck to Trump and also implement any kind of trade barriers against China just to please Trump.

And again: You are talking about bulk distribution. I am talking about small businesses, R&D, rapid prototyping, time to market. Days count. Every day I wait for a prototype I have developers sitting here doing nothing. You can not "shift" that problem. There is only one region where you are able to get not just SOME of the electronic parts you need, but ALL of them.

And that very clearly is not the USA.

Fischgericht commented on Suspending Duty-Free De Minimis Treatment for All Countries whitehouse.gov/presidenti... · Posted by u/jonbaer

patrickhogan1 · a month ago

Most “mission-critical” R&D parts will still clear in < 48 hours. Express carriers already transmit full data to CBP before wheels-up. Type 86 filings have been required “upon or prior to arrival” since Feb 2024, so the paperwork is literally done while the flight is in the air.

This will shift important inventory to local distributors in the US. This makes local supply chains more resilient, not more vulnerable.

Fischgericht · a month ago

Ah, how I love americans still living in the bubble thinking they are relevant.

No, you will neither get an Intel N100 devkit in the US, nor any Realtek devkits.

No, your supply chains will not get "more resilient". The industry simply is no longer taking your country as a trustworthy an serious trading partner.

If you want to do R&D in electronics, you need quick imports from China.

Yes, the US is totally prepared now for a future of coal powered steam trains, true. Have fun with that :)

Fischgericht commented on Suspending Duty-Free De Minimis Treatment for All Countries whitehouse.gov/presidenti... · Posted by u/jonbaer

patrickhogan1 · a month ago

The US is eliminating its $800 duty-free import threshold. This isn't radical. It mostly brings America in line with what other major markets already do (or are about to do).

EU: Only packages under €150 ($160) are duty-free, and they're planning to scrap even that. Since 2021, they collect VAT on everything, no matter how small.

Japan: Has a ¥10,000 ($70) threshold now, but already announced they're killing it by late 2026.

China: Basically no threshold at all. You only avoid duty if the calculated tax is under $7. Even their special e-commerce imports pay 70% of normal VAT.

Fischgericht · a month ago

- €150 is higher than 0€ - Also, you are fully wrong. The EU has an import duty of 0% on pretty much anything, especially electronics. Here, the de minimis is about the VAT. Which you therefore also are wrong about. No, there is no VAT on items below €150 - because that what our de minimis is about. Also, import VAT is easy to process. Because it's always the same amount for everything - 19% in Germany, for example. For tariffs you need to know what is INSIDE the package. - China's high tech economy does not depend on small imports. Also, they do have de minimis for import VAT, and 0% import duty on lots of stuff (again, including electronics)

The problem for low-value items is not the import duty. It's the delay of processing.

I am running an electronics development company in the EU. To us it's mission critical to be able to get devkits, samples, prototypes, spare parts etc within 5 days from China.

I would not mind having to pay $1 of duty on a $10 part. I would be in huge trouble having to wait for that part 30 days.

Also: As always, Trump gave nobody any time whatsoever to prepare. The US now suddenly will have to hire thousands of customs employees. New machinery to transport all of this. New warehouses for storing stuff that sits for customs processing.

You could not be more off here. This will turn out to be a gigantic disadvantages for huge bunch of the innovative parts of the US economy. In our industry, nothing matters more than time to get parts.

As you have noticed: All other countries have LOWERED de minimis, and they did this with 12-18 months of advance notice.

Thailand last year tried to get rid of de minimis. They reverted the decision after ONE WEEK.

You are completely underestimating the amount of the US shooting into their own feet AGAIN here. In these days of global shipping volume you MUST have de minimis a country, or else you will be de-coupled from global R&D markets.

Fischgericht commented on I read all of Cloudflare's Claude-generated commits maxemitchell.com/writings... · Posted by u/maxemitchell

Fischgericht · 3 months ago

So, it means that you and the LLM together have managed to write SEVEN lines of trivial code per hour. On a protocol that is perfectly documented, where you can look at about one million other implementations when in doubt.

It is not my intention to hurt your feelings, but it sounds like you and/or the LLM are not really good at their job. Looking at programmer salaries and LLM energy costs, this appears to be a very very VERY expensive OAuth library.

Again: Not my intention to hurt any feelings, but the numbers really are shockingly bad.

Fischgericht · 3 months ago

Yes, my brain got confused on who wrote the code and who just reported about it. I am truly sorry. I will go see my LLM doctor to get my brain repaired.

Fischgericht commented on I read all of Cloudflare's Claude-generated commits maxemitchell.com/writings... · Posted by u/maxemitchell

Fischgericht · 3 months ago

So, it means that you and the LLM together have managed to write SEVEN lines of trivial code per hour. On a protocol that is perfectly documented, where you can look at about one million other implementations when in doubt.

It is not my intention to hurt your feelings, but it sounds like you and/or the LLM are not really good at their job. Looking at programmer salaries and LLM energy costs, this appears to be a very very VERY expensive OAuth library.

Again: Not my intention to hurt any feelings, but the numbers really are shockingly bad.

Fischgericht commented on Tesla seeks to guard crash data from public disclosure reuters.com/legal/governm... · Posted by u/kklisura

lechatonnoir · 3 months ago

I think the idea is, why would the visualization be so intentionally bad in the Autopilot version as to not detect the kids entirely? What benefit does that confer, or, from another perspective, what software constraint forces this to be the case?

Fischgericht · 3 months ago

Exactly that, yes. Thank you.

Fischgericht commented on Tesla seeks to guard crash data from public disclosure reuters.com/legal/governm... · Posted by u/kklisura

gtani · 3 months ago

we have 2 very recent Tesla 3's here (in the US, tho i'm not sure which gen HW 3 or 4 they have and I don't drive them), i'm told (judging by center console) reliably identify anything they need to but FSD isn't happy in construction zones with orange cones and will go slow.

Fischgericht · 3 months ago

In Germany (and a lot of the world, really) town centers are very old and streets are narrow and are shared. Over here it is also totally legal to cross the road wherever you like.

Also, due to the narrow roads it's standard practice to be in eye contact with other users of the shared space to make sure who drives/walks next.

Car AIs can not hold eye contact, so this is where the problem starts.

And, this one of course is very very specific just to Germany: On parts of the Autobahn you have to always expect another car approaching on the left lane with 250 km/h / 155 MPH, so you really have to use the rear view mirror very early to get an idea at what speed that car may be moving. The reach of the Tesla back camera is far too low for another driver at that speed being able to break so to not crash into your back.

So, when it comes to Germany even if the system worked better, there simply is no place where you could really make use of it without either killing people or getting killed.

Fischgericht commented on Tesla seeks to guard crash data from public disclosure reuters.com/legal/governm... · Posted by u/kklisura

zelphirkalt · 3 months ago

Soon promised to only have 1/10 of detection failures, better than ever before! Only 1 child per week! Rejoice!

On a more serious note: Where do we as a society put the bar? What are the numbers, at which we accept the risk? Do we put the bar higher than for humans? Or same level? Or does the added convenience for car drivers tempt us to accept a lower bar?

Fischgericht · 3 months ago

I think it is just not possible to have mixed traffic of devices (humans) with a weight of 70kg and SUVs of 3 metric tons.

You have to seperate those. And the default in car nations like Germany or the US has always been to ban the humans. After having seen how other nations are handling it, and what it does for quality of life, whenever I see how German cities look like (and of course most of US cities) it feels totally alien to me.

Anyway: No, Robotaxis clearly are not the solution to the problem. In school kid vs. Tesla, the car always will win. And this includes even if you blame the kid for having made a mistake according to road regulations - making mistakes in regards of traffic rules as a young human should not be punished by death.

What I have seen in my German home town also is a downward spiral: Hockey mums thinking it is safer for their kids to come pick them up with their SUVs. But because those are so big that it is impossible to see the other kids, risk of accidents is actually rising, causing more mums to driver their kids in SUVs etc.

Fischgericht commented on Tesla seeks to guard crash data from public disclosure reuters.com/legal/governm... · Posted by u/kklisura

thomastjeffery · 3 months ago

Setting a bar is the mistake. We need to reframe the entire narrative.

Safety implementation is never objective. You can only implement a system by subjecting it to context. Traffic safety is a world of edge cases, and each driving implementation will engage with those edge cases from a different subjective context.

We are used to framing computation as a system of rules: explicit logic that is predictably followed. Tesla is using the other approach to "AI": statistical models. A statistical model replaces binary logic with a system of bias. A model that is built out of good example data will behave as if it is the thing creating that data. This works well when the context that model is situated in is similar to the example. It works poorly when there is a mismatch of context. The important thing to know here is that in both cases, it "works". A statistical model never fails: that's a feature of binary logic. Instead, it behaves in a way we don't like. The only way to accommodate this is to build a model out of examples that incorporate every edge case. Those examples can't conflict with each other, either. The model must be biased to make the objectively correct decision for every unique context it could possibly encounter in the future; or it will be biased to make the wrong decision.

The only real solution to traffic safety is to replace it with a fail-safe system: a system whose participants can't collide with each other or their surrounding environment. Today, the best implementation of this goal is trains.

Humans have the same problems that statistical models have. There are two key differences, though:

1. Humans are reliably capable of logical deduction.

2. Humans can be held directly accountable for their mistakes.

Tesla would very much like us to be ignorant of #1, and to insulate their platform from #2.

Fischgericht · 3 months ago

"today, the best implementation of this goal is trains."

Could not agree more.

Fischgericht commented on Tesla seeks to guard crash data from public disclosure reuters.com/legal/governm... · Posted by u/kklisura

yreg · 3 months ago

> I am aware that FSD has a different software stack. But it's the same hardware. So why would they make the detection of kids different on the standard firmware artificially worse? As Marketing for people who hate school kids?

Not sure what's your argument here. The visualization you get using "Enhanced Autopilot" is completely different to the one you get using "FSD Beta" because the software you are running is completely different as well.

Fischgericht · 3 months ago

The point is not the visualization towards the driver. It's that the same data clearly is the base for the decisions this car makes. If it is not showing the kid crossing the street, you also will not get an emergency break warning, which I get in tons of other situations.

What you see is what you get.