Readit News logoReadit News
CptFribble commented on GPT-5   openai.com/gpt-5/... · Posted by u/rd
kamarg · 22 days ago
> Sure, you can scale it, but if an LLM takes, say, $1 million a year to run an AGI instance, but it costs only $500k for one human researcher, then it still doesn’t get you anywhere faster than humans do.

Just from the fact that the LLM can/will work on the issue 24/7 vs a human who typically will want to do things like sleep, eat, and spend time not working, there would already be a noticeable increase in research speed.

CptFribble · 22 days ago
This assumes that all areas of research are bottlenecked on human understanding, which is very often not the case.

Imagine a field where experiments take days to complete, and reviewing the results and doing deep thought work to figure out the next experiment takes maybe an hour or two for an expert.

An LLM would not be able to do 24/7 work in this case, and would only save a few hours per day at most. Scaling up to many experiments in parallel may not always be possible, if you don't know what to do with additional experiments until you finish the previous one, or if experiments incur significant cost.

So an AGI/expert LLM may be a huge boon for e.g. drug discovery, which already makes heavy use of massively parallel experiments and simulations, but may not be so useful for biological research (perfect simulation down to the genetic level of even a fruit fly likely costs more compute than the human race can provide presently), or research that involves time-consuming physical processes to complete, like climate science or astronomy, that both need to wait periodically to gather data from satellites and telescopes.

CptFribble commented on Show HN: I got laid off from Meta and created a minor hit on Steam    · Posted by u/newobj
SXX · 6 months ago
To be honest it's just a thing from financial models inside industry. When you plan how much copies you suppose to sell to turn profit you must consider refund rate as well.

Another reason is that games on Steam can and are often refunded after quite long time has passed. E.g people buy lots of games on holidays or sales and then refund them when they decide not to play it. Sometimes refunds can happen even after a year if e.g player can't get your game to run on their device, etc.

But yeah it make sense not to include it in math for single sale that was not refunded.

CptFribble · 6 months ago
Ah, I see - thank you for the context! If you don't mind one more question - do you have to leave a substantial amount of cash in the Steam account in case of very late refunds? Or does Steam just send you an invoice or something?
CptFribble commented on Show HN: I got laid off from Meta and created a minor hit on Steam    · Posted by u/newobj
SXX · 6 months ago
In gamedev we usually count it like this:

* Refunds and VAT 16% overall

* Steam cut 30% below $10,000,000 sales

* Publisher cut from net profit after recouperation is around 50%

So developer get around $5.88, but obviously for some countries it's can be better because there is no VAT or lower VAT, but price there would be like $5-15.

PS: And yeah from $5.88 you still owe some corporate tax.

CptFribble · 6 months ago
why are refunds so commonly counted against sales in this way? Wouldn't a refund cost essentially nothing?
CptFribble commented on Meta torrented & seeded 81.7 TB dataset containing copyrighted data   arstechnica.com/tech-poli... · Posted by u/gameshot911
TeMPOraL · 7 months ago
But the point of the response is that "getting money from selling music" is, in digital era, artificial scarcity. I.e. the copyright laws that big corporations are lobbying for continued enforcement and tightening, are the very thing that create this artificial scarcity that they are best positioned to profit off.

Cut out copyright, and no one will be getting any money from selling music per copy (or equivalent) - as it should be.

CptFribble · 7 months ago
digital music is not artificial scarcity, because it's not the copied bits that are the resource, it's attention. we only have so much time and attention for consuming media, and only so much attention and memory space in our brains for keeping track of where to find it. large budgets can easily dominate these channels and limit the average person's apparent choice.

this is what I mean when large players would outcompete smaller players in a digital marketplace with no copyright. the only way for this to work would be with a benevolent neutral 3rd party managing the marketplace, like Steam, so users can easily see when a large player is cloning a smaller players work - but even then it still depends on the good will of the general public to prefer the "original" artist which is not guaranteed.

CptFribble commented on Meta torrented & seeded 81.7 TB dataset containing copyrighted data   arstechnica.com/tech-poli... · Posted by u/gameshot911
appreciatorBus · 7 months ago
I think it’s fine to criticize the hypocrisy of viciously defending the copyrights you own, while gleefully running roughshod over the ones you don’t.

But it’s also possible that copyright as a concept, or in its current implementation, is bad and unjust.

I’m sure some copyright holders would like nothing more than to see an argument that elevates copyright violation to the level of murder, morally or legally. But I think it’s more akin to jaywalking - violating an unjust law that mostly shouldn’t exist.

CptFribble · 7 months ago
the reform needs to happen at the layer where whether a copyright is valid or not is decided upon, not before (at the point of "should copyright exist") and not after (enforcement).

a world without copyright means those with the largest advertising budgets will reap nearly all the rewards from new IP created by small artists. BigCorp Inc. can just sit around and wait for talented musicians to post something interesting on soundcloud, for example, then just have their in-house people copy it and push it out to radio and streaming platforms via their massive ad budgets and favorable relationships for getting new material onto the waves immediately. meanwhile the original artist gets nothing.

the position of advocating against all copyright protections at all only makes sense for people who are already wealthy enough that they don't need proceeds from their art to survive.

CptFribble commented on JPMorgan Workers Ponder Union in Wake of Return-to-Office Mandate   barrons.com/articles/jpmo... · Posted by u/yesthis
benreesman · 8 months ago
There will always be some social-ness, but let’s be real that it’s out of fucking control right now. I’ve been doing this professionally for more than 20 years and “who you know not what you know” hasn’t run this badly amok in that entire time.

The industry is very unsettled right now: credible (or at least loud) opinions on AI range from “fancy autocomplete nothingburger” to “programmers are obsolete starting now”, RTO is in some weird ass place where it’s really unclear the merits or lack thereof, consolidation of half the S&P into ~7 companies and the whole startup pipeline running through guys who fit in a banquet room is uh, not highly not a working free market.

This is how you get a chorus of “talent shortage” on one side and a chorus of “CS is cooked fam” on the other: software engineering jobs are experiencing a market failure, price discovery isn’t happening, and shit is going to be weird until the market starts working again.

CptFribble · 8 months ago
Megacorps being naturally risk-averse, and the lion's share of the rest of the capital being held by that banquet room, it's going to take one or a few scrappy startups hitting it big while also committing to WFH/etc to get the banquet to loosen the purse strings a bit and kick off a new wave of investment a la Web 2.0 post-dotcom-crash (which was coincidentally also post-oh-noes-outsourcing-1.0)

That plus a few years of new successes might get the megacorps to start hiring en masse and possibly see the value in WFH again, but it'll take a lot of these stars aligning to produce several new unicorns that can eat a few lunches to get there, which will probably take the rest of the 2020s and possibly part of the 2030s (based on the last time this happened, going from 1999 crash to the 2010/2011 renaissance)

If I was a betting man, I'd guess the first wave of new startups will be unifying a huge dataset of local info with AI into like the AirBNB-of-local-whatever personal concierge sort of thing, like OpenTable on steroids. but I'm frequently wrong, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

CptFribble commented on We’re receiving about 3,000 reports/hour   bsky.app/profile/safety.b... · Posted by u/Funes-
astrange · 9 months ago
> Prices in America have skyrocketed in the past 4 years, and pay hasn’t even started to catch up.

No, it's about the same as 2019:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N

Inflation is over and done with. We even fixed income inequality; it's sharply reduced since 2019:

https://www.nber.org/papers/w31010

In fact, every single economic indicator is currently better than 2019.

One thing you can say that may be true is that voters are upset because they remember inflation from 2021-22 and are still reacting to it. Or that they don't like high interest rates. And housing prices are bad in blue states and that is the local governments' fault.

But one thing we see from US voters is that R voters claim the economy is bad under a D president and immediately switch to claiming it's good under an R president. So I think you should consider those people are lying.

CptFribble · 9 months ago
> R voters claim the economy is bad under a D president and immediately switch to claiming it's good under an R president.

adding on to this, typically it takes 1-3 years for the effects of an administration to really bear fruit in the economy, either good or ill. So a common tactic from the R side the last several presidential cycles is to claim ownership of the economy handed to them by the outgoing D president, then when their policies cause some kind of problem, blame the incoming D president 4 years later.

See also: who the R's blame the deficit on vs. which party's presidents actually increased the deficit the most over the last 20-25 years.

CptFribble commented on Trump wins presidency for second time   thehill.com/homenews/camp... · Posted by u/koolba
RpmReviver · 10 months ago
Then why isn't he in jail? Why wasn't he been impeached? Why can't they find something that sticks for the most smeared political figure in modern history? If we are bringing up his questionable legal past, then it's fair to bring up the legal past of the opposing side. The truth is the political class has done so much damage and far worse things than Trump.

That's a whole lot of mind reading and guessing of what 50% of the country thinks, it's not simple, no one is that one dimensional and different groups have different reasons

Gen Z, millenials, boomers, gen x all have slightly different social and economic goals

The fundamental christians are not the same as the homeless bernie bros and classic liberals

CptFribble · 10 months ago
> why isn't he in jail

In 2020, a Pennsylvania white man illegally voted via mail-in ballot on behalf of two deceased parents.

Also in 2020, a black woman in Memphis voted while ineligible due to a felony conviction without being informed she wasn't allowed, and was convicted and sentenced to 6 years in jail.

As for how this applies to why Trump is not in jail for his convictions, I will leave that as an exercise for the reader.

CptFribble commented on Everything I built with Claude Artifacts this week   simonwillison.net/2024/Oc... · Posted by u/recvonline
trhway · 10 months ago
I think you've just gave an idea to somebody's next startup, and we'll probably see it is being done in half-a-year. In general all that tedious YAML/etc. is ripe for the "autocompletion AI".
CptFribble · 10 months ago
until it hallucinates a config and rings up a $10,000 AWS while you're asleep
CptFribble commented on Large language models reduce public knowledge sharing on online Q&A platforms   academic.oup.com/pnasnexu... · Posted by u/croes
nfw2 · a year ago
I'm building an e-reader app where "enhancement content" such as illustrations, context-approprate summaries, and group chat can be integrated into the reading experience.

The way I am connecting external content to the epub is through an anchoring system -- sequences of words can be hashed to form unique ids that are referenced by the enhancement. Doing this lets me index the enhancement content in such a way that is format-independent and doesn't require modifying the underlying epub.

The specific task o1 helped me with was determining what the text is visible at any given point in time. This text is then turned into hashes to pull the relevant enhancement content.

Getting the current words on the page doesn't seem all that complex, but the epub.js API is pretty confusing. There are abstractions like "Rendition", "Location", "Contents", "Range", and it's not always intuitive which of these will provide the appropriate methods. I'm sure I would have figured it out eventually by looking at the API docs, but GPT probably saved me and hour or two of trial-and-error.

CptFribble · a year ago
> group chat

hmm having a sort of mini-forum-like experience tied to particular pages in a book seems like a fascinating idea! being able to discuss plot twists and such only once you've already gotten to that point?

wow this seems like an amazing idea actually! any names yet? I'd love to check it out once it's done!

u/CptFribble

KarmaCake day1630September 19, 2017View Original