It's well known though that as you build muscle, your rest calorie consumption increases, so probably if you build/maintain enough muscle, then you can just outrun your intake, since you consume more without doing anything to start with...
I think it stands to reason that if we took an overweight person and trained them to eat what you or I eat and then move like you or I move, they'd end up losing weight.
For me though, I know that I can be running say 50km/31 miles a week regularly and that if there is weight loss, it is impercetible to me. But up it with just two more runs and I believe I do start outrunning my diet. Again, this is an n=1 and ignores pretty much every other factor in my life.
I think as well there is some difficulty with variability between people that isn't clear or maybe doesn't matter at scale. The article linked study was across 43 nations with 4213 adults. Yet there may still be individuals who can argue differently. CICO (calories in vs calories out) must apply to us all, but the composition has an affect on what the body chooses to store vs how energised or hungry/satiated we feel. A bad diet could perhaps me we feel we have less enthusiasm for running or other activities. Age, lifestyle, and even cultural factors are massive in affecting metabolism (more the foremost) and of course what we consume (the latter two).
I run a fair amount (over 2000km/1200 miles in 2025) and find that once I start doing above ~70km/43 miles in a week whatever eating habits I have are indeed outcompeted by my running and weight loss is inevitable. Even so it does slow around a BMI of 23 for me for longer than I am able to be consistent with the running to observe further effects. Still my point is that my diet isn't anything to write home about and I anecdotally I feel that as far as weightloss is concerned I can very much outrun it.
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