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2ion commented on Is everything falling apart?   nonzero.substack.com/p/is... · Posted by u/tejohnso
karpierz · 4 years ago
> Pension funds inherently depend on population growth to avoid shortfalls.

Pension funds inherently depend on increases in production. Population growth is one factor, but technological development can also increase production.

> The other near-ponzi scheme is the real estate market. In my city of Toronto, average real estate prices have gone from 2x average income in 1972 to 16x average income today.

Hello from a Vancouverite! I broadly agree with this point, and I'm not sure how to work our way out of a housing bubble beyond popping it and dealing with the aftermath. Too many people are invested in the status quo, so any politician who tries to pop it will be crucified for destroying the savings of a large portion of the population.

2ion · 4 years ago
>> Pension funds inherently depend on population growth to avoid shortfalls. > >Pension funds inherently depend on increases in production. Population growth is one factor, but technological development can also increase production.

Interestingly, capital returns and population growth are (unquestionably?) on exponential curves. So, are production factors too slow to evolve along with the exponentials? Maybe they are, because of waste, lack of recycling, raw resources decline and environmental damage.

>> The other near-ponzi scheme is the real estate market. In my city of Toronto, average real estate prices have gone from 2x average income in 1972 to 16x average income today. > >Hello from a Vancouverite! I broadly agree with this point, and I'm not sure how to work our way out of a housing bubble beyond popping it and dealing with the aftermath. Too many people are invested in the status quo, so any politician who tries to pop it will be crucified for destroying the savings of a large portion of the population.

You could argue that in the same time frame, world population has more than doubled, and because the cost of capital is a lot cheaper elsewhere than in Canada, pressure on attractive living space in peaceful and stable countries has increased exponentially. At this point, the "liberal" view on capital flows and capital control, the fuel of foreign direct investments of Western countries into overseas properties since WWII, came back to bite the originators of the idea in the ass.

2ion commented on Is everything falling apart?   nonzero.substack.com/p/is... · Posted by u/tejohnso
2ion · 4 years ago
Well, the view that history may be in fact (perhaps not objectively, but to any observer cultured enough to entertain himself with observing it) not a time line into the future but cyclical, with civilizations rising and falling, is not new [1].

Perhaps this time what's different is that due to our information age and accelerated rates of change, cultural history's process of change has been pushed from being viewed closer to evolution (the next step of the change being defined by "environment and chance", that is, stretched out over long periods of time and caused by factors not directly being under human influence) to being much closer to immediate, accountable, man-made history (the next step of the change being defined by "environment and choice", that is, actors making active choices causing outcomes) [2]. And so, because most humans, even humans of influence making the choices altering the life outcomes of populuations not over generations but even within single, half or quarter lifetimes, are terribly selfish and stupid and unwise, the outcomes of bad choices just never seem to stop coming.

I'm no expert, but topics like shifting balances between global powers which are interested in different kinds of change (from hegemonic US in a post-WWII word to a very multi-polar world order to xyz) causing metrics like HDI to even out between global population groups have been "hot" since when? the 70s, 80s, 90s, 00s? So sure, things might keep falling apart for one population group but still improving for the other group(s).

Another interesting take on "falling apart narrative" interpretations of current history might be a take on how looming juggernauts like climate change, migration waves and so on play into it. This kind of change may be good for something, but surely not perceived stability in the factors that make up human societies.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Decline_of_the_West

[2] "Environment and change", "environment and choice" --- words borrowed out of recently read "Red Mars" by Kim Robinson.

2ion commented on Rocket Mortgage to trim 8% of workforce as home-loan market shrinks   detroitnews.com/story/bus... · Posted by u/dspoka
oliwarner · 4 years ago
And compared to a couple of years ago, that's really expensive.

The mortgage we took out two years ago (2 year fix, ~60% LTV) had a introductory rate of 1.2%.

That falls back to 3.something variable in September. We'll probably look for another fixed but current 2yr fixed rates seem to be around 2.3% (plus a £1k application). That's an uncomfortable increase on a big loan.

What's interesting is the rates on bigger loans (eg 90% LTV) aren't much more (2.4%+application). That's not what I'd expect a bank to offer if they expected a bursting bubble.

2ion · 4 years ago
That's really interesting. Is it normal in UK (thinking £) to get such an extremely short (introductory) loan and then refinance every few years? In Germany, most people take a 10y fixed rate at least to reduce such risk.
2ion commented on Firefox on Ubuntu 22.04 from .deb (not from snap)   balintreczey.hu/blog/fire... · Posted by u/zdw
Darmody · 4 years ago
Unity made sense, snap doesn't.
2ion · 4 years ago
Snap makes sense, because it deals with desktop application confinement. Any Firefox process launched as $user is able to use all the RAM, read and write all the files, access all the networks and basically do everything as that user. You don't want that, it's stupid and so Windows 95.

There are alternative solutions: QubesOS uses VMs as the isolation layer, desktop application confinement using firejail with its good selection of profiles tweaked to my liking, systemd-run confinement configured through the vast resource control options made configurable through systemd. There is no reason ~ or even / shouldn't appear completely empty to Firefox the process except for the resources you pass to it (open file, grant download permissions...) or which it needs to run (of course, those would be immutable as far as possible). SELinux and AppArmor are child's play; you don't have a lot of problems of those tools if there are no objects a process could acceess in its namespace to begin with.

macOS I believe is already there in terms of desktop app confinement. Windows is not but at least it has the controlled folder access layer available after they gave up on making store apps meaningfully secure as its own app category (too many escapes/config tweaks possible now). Desktop Linux though has not had squat in that field in the mass market for 2 decades. Basically, you guys run all applications unconfined. Snap is a way to work on changing that.

Not saying though that the current implementation is exceptionally good. It's too slow, and they should have reused systemd or whatever for a thin, tweakable resource control and container layer, not invent a container format from scratch.

2ion commented on My upgrade to 25 Gbit/s Fiber To The Home   michael.stapelberg.ch/pos... · Posted by u/secure
2ion · 4 years ago
What's impressive to me here is not the capacity but the price for the capacity. At allegedly 777 CHF per year this is a steal so far removed from my reality it's obscene.
2ion commented on TurboTax’s fight against free tax filing   slate.com/technology/2022... · Posted by u/xweb
bigbacaloa · 4 years ago
In Spain I log onto the tax agency website using my digital certificate. It tells me what I have been paid during the year, what I own, how big my mortgage is, etc. If I agree I click a button and pay whatever I owe. If I don't agree, or some info is missing, I add it in and then click the button.

It's astronomically easier than filing the same tax information in the US and takes far less time even though the tax code is less clearly written and user support is almost totally nonexistent.

The nonexistence of a national ID system makes digital identification unnecessarily difficult. The idea that an individual has to redeclare to the IRS what has already been declared to the IRS on W2s and 1099s is just stupid.

The US tax filing system is simply primitive.

2ion · 4 years ago
This sounds like a nice system.

Does it also tell you of its own volition if the tax office owes you money instead on a return without you having to declare anything? For example, if the tax office knows where you work as an employee and where you live, and the tax code has provisions that stipulate that an employee gains a tax advantage of 0.xx€ per kilometre commuting distance between his home and his place of work, does it factor that in or doesn't it? Because that would actually be _nice_.

2ion commented on Ask HN: How does Apple achieve both secrecy and quality for a release?    · Posted by u/billti
2ion · 4 years ago
Rather than this being a special quality of Apple, I think the marketing strategy of a lot of other B2C brands has now involved """leaks""" to enthusiast circles for a long time, probably since """evangelists""" and """influencers""" became subjects of pop consumer culture --- so I think that Apple leaking not less but the others just leaking intentionally more info ahead of release to fuel the hype is an important factor at play here.

I don't wish to comment on the "and quality" part in your question though.

2ion commented on Amazon workers at 100 more facilities want to unionize: Amazon Labor Union   finance.yahoo.com/news/am... · Posted by u/guerrilla
ejb999 · 4 years ago
I've pretty much stopped shopping from amazon, based solely on the fact they are almost never the lowest cost place to buy things anymore - used to be for most things I buy, now I think they are counting on people not checking prices anymore so they charge more, sometimes a lot more, than other places.
2ion · 4 years ago
Hereabouts, unfortunately, for certain things, they are the only option. Because they excel at logistics and customer service.

It's the same reason I buy my nongreat nonoffice furniture from IKEA --- because they have the product and the logistics.

u/2ion

KarmaCake day957November 18, 2013View Original