I agree, but I think the fortunes of the Trump administration are too tied up with the stock market for them to just let them fail. Obviously “shmail out” was a joke, but there is some truth to the idea. Because whatever it is can’t look like a bail out, it has to look like the private markets saved themselves.
The problem with the revolution talk is too few know how to "work to live".
Only 4% hunt in the US anymore. When is the last time you sewed a shirt? Grew a carrot? 100 years ago everyone had manual labor skills, even the rich. Musk and Zuckerberg live the same prisoner's dilemma.
Our lived experience informs us revolution is certain doom as we watch ourselves live daily routines that only require the smallest obligation to ourselves; eat, shower, sleep, computer.
~84% live less than 100 miles from their childhood home. Americans are fine being sedate and cared for despite the rhetoric they're rugged individuals.
Office workers need to learn how to grow potatoes and rotate a tire first.
The best kind of revolt would be a methodical Luigi style pruning. Simpsons made that joke 20+ years ago; you'd have to kill 50 CEOs to see certain changes[1]. That's included here to demonstrate how normal and old the issue is.
Inflation since 1980 is 297%. Slow steady deflation of buying power into helplessness was not an accident.
We don't need anything "too big to fail" and should be aggressively passive whenever corporations shoot themselves in their own feet unless failure means large damage to the environment or the health of the people. The datacenter water consumption is trouble. For everyone. Everything else should be left to collapse and correct.
We passed "too big to fail" a long time ago. NVDA alone is worth $4.4T, up 1100% in five years. The entire 2008 crash only lost $8T in stock market capitalization.
I agree, one hundred percent. Capture of the government by corporate interests has neutralized the ability of the FTC to do their job and stop problems like this. Companies have gotten so large that if they catch a cold, the entire world coughs. This is unacceptable.
The question remains, "Who is going to bell the cat?"
Has anyone analysed this house of cards? Like if OpenAI goes bust, what are the knock-ons due to the crazy loan exchange system in place across the industry.
The problem with bailing out these companies is that it just kicks the can down the road. When GM and Chrysler got bailed out in 08, GM returned to profitability in 2010 and Chrysler returned to profitability in 2011.
The difference here is these AI companies have never been profitable and there is no telling if a bailout will even get them to profitability, it just gives them another few years until they need another cash infusion.
Currently my prediction is that OpenAI's IPO will likely blow up in much the same way that WeWork's IPO blew up and that will likely be the start of the great AI bubble burst.
Google has long been profitable, and Gemini is legit. Perhaps they're not included in the assertion as their computational clusters are monetized in other services as well?
In my comment I was really just referring to OpenAI, Anthropic and other companies where AI is the primary business. Google is a bit different cause they have a massive profitable business outside of AI.
Chrysler didn't really recover. It made it out alive but soon chose to be eaten by Stellantis. They now are in crisis again, but under different ownership structure so another bailing is highly unlikely. They are at best 50% American (financially) with only one vehicle in production (big minivan and medium minivan, both terrible).
GM made it, but quite a bit of their family didn't.
I would be happy to see the Microsofts being forced to choose between axing something like Xbox and Office to survive the 2030s due to AI becoming a brown turd investment. That would be wild.
Love it when the media starts reflecting the bubble fears HN described for at least 2 years. OpenAI might not crash yet but talk of bubbles is likely to tighten AI industry companies access to investor money imo. The days of investors blindly showering money on anything AI are coming to an end looks like. Actual RoI of existing AI systems is likely to come under increasing scrutiny imo
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Only 4% hunt in the US anymore. When is the last time you sewed a shirt? Grew a carrot? 100 years ago everyone had manual labor skills, even the rich. Musk and Zuckerberg live the same prisoner's dilemma.
Our lived experience informs us revolution is certain doom as we watch ourselves live daily routines that only require the smallest obligation to ourselves; eat, shower, sleep, computer.
~84% live less than 100 miles from their childhood home. Americans are fine being sedate and cared for despite the rhetoric they're rugged individuals.
Office workers need to learn how to grow potatoes and rotate a tire first.
The best kind of revolt would be a methodical Luigi style pruning. Simpsons made that joke 20+ years ago; you'd have to kill 50 CEOs to see certain changes[1]. That's included here to demonstrate how normal and old the issue is.
Inflation since 1980 is 297%. Slow steady deflation of buying power into helplessness was not an accident.
[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/simpsonsshitposting/comments/1hios5...
The question remains, "Who is going to bell the cat?"
The difference here is these AI companies have never been profitable and there is no telling if a bailout will even get them to profitability, it just gives them another few years until they need another cash infusion.
Currently my prediction is that OpenAI's IPO will likely blow up in much the same way that WeWork's IPO blew up and that will likely be the start of the great AI bubble burst.
Does Gemini's existence directly dictate 10-20% of your consumer spending?
(In a world of extreme wealth inequality) Now how about Paul Allen's consumer spending?
GM made it, but quite a bit of their family didn't.
I would be happy to see the Microsofts being forced to choose between axing something like Xbox and Office to survive the 2030s due to AI becoming a brown turd investment. That would be wild.