Seeing as this is a topic where the discussion often derails into a flame war, I thought I'd leave a comment to clarify some things. Please try to avoid interpreting other comments in the worst sense, most people come from a place of good intentions.
While I cannot speak to the specifics of Ireland and Spain, I suspect their position is quite similar to Norway. Norway recognizes Palestine's right to exist based on the borders from before the 4th of June 1967. Even though Hamas controls the Gaza strip today, Norway is not recognizing Hamas as the goverment of Palestine, or is in any way rewarding them for the terror attacks they committed on the 7th of October last year. Currently it is Mahmoud Abbas, the party leader of al Fatah, who is recognized as the president of the palestinian people. Most countries refer to the Palestinian Authority when talking about Palestine and its future.
For a long time, the promise of recognition as reward for a lasting peace has been the strategy used by Norway, but now a Palestinian state is seen as a prerequisite for peace in the Middle East. Prime minister Støre says, among other things, the following about the recognition of Palestine as a state:
>When we recognize Palestine, we can more strongly encourage other countries to support the building of a Palestinian state and we can hold the Palestinian state accountable
>Recognizing a state is not about giving the green light to every policy a state pursues. We will not support a state that uses violence. The Palestinians must see that there is another hope than the path of violence.
It's an interesting theory, to force a two-state solution on Israel by treating it as a fait accompli. It's worth a shot.
They need to use that to put pressure on both sides. Israel has been building settlements outside those 1967 borders. Arguably, that's an even worse violation of international law than the attack on Gaza. The latter is part of a war, where the enemy is routinely putting its own civilians at risk. The former is a pure land grab, lacking any fig leaf to the contrary.
Unwinding that is going to be ugly. Settlers will either become part of Palestine, or be forced to leave. (Which they should, but they'll be rightly angry at the Israeli government.)
On the other hand, Fatah has no idea how to prevent Hamas in Gaza from conducting attacks against Israel. That would make the October 7 attacks an act of war. Countries recognizing Palestine as a country can use that to apply pressure to prevent such a war, but that is also going to be deeply ugly.
Perhaps Fatah could call on its new allies to help police itself, as it tries to establish itself as a first-order country?
I would be deeply grateful to these countries if they could find ways to meaningfully help resolve this conflict -- as opposed to just declaring sides, which sadly is all too often what's happening on the world stage. There's a lot of bad blood and a lot of meddling from outside pushing violence, including both the US and Iran.
Newly independent states electing their resistance movement to government is quite common actually and seldomly a major issue (relatively to pre-independence). In recent history we had FLN in Algeria and ANC in South Africa. In Northern Ireland Sinn Féin just got elected to government without issues, and they are likely to win a major electoral victories in the Republic of Ireland as well, nobody is worried about that.
An independent Palestine will likely have democratic institutions which protects tyrannical movements from misusing their powers. Most resistance movements obey these structures as long as they are fair.
Now if Israel continues their interference (which is very likely) we may expect violence to continue regardless of how the Palestinian government is composed. This happened after Irish independence (which saw British interference in Norther Ireland) despite Sinn Féin not entering government.
> so what happens when Palestinians inevitably elect Hamas representatives to parliament and /or presidency ?
They probably will (though Palestine's existing ICC membership and the top leadership of Hamas already having ICC warrants being sought and the ICC investigation continuing would likely have a substantial impact on which Hamas voices even have that opportunity, which eventuality, as much as the potential to embarrass Israel [I don't think they expect any Israeli target to actually see justice] was quite likely a factor in the more moderate Fatah leadership of Palestine joining the ICC and actively seeking their investigations of international crimes in Palestine in the first place.)
But since independence will have been established, they'll have to deliver on boring day to day stuff, without constant Israeli abuses like the cross-border sniping and the vetoing of all-Palestine elections that would include places currently administered by Israeli occupation authorities, etc., etc., etc.
New states formed by regional/ethnic separatist/independence movements often elect the political wing(s) of the group(s) that fought the prior government/occupier if independence is acheived after substantial armed struggle. This is usually far less of a problem than in actually revolutionary regimes that overthrow amd replace a central government, because there is usually less ongoing struggle against those invested in the old regime to justify post-victory war government, providing a pretext for repression and deprioritization of economic progress and QoL improvements for the citizenry.
Readit News
While I cannot speak to the specifics of Ireland and Spain, I suspect their position is quite similar to Norway. Norway recognizes Palestine's right to exist based on the borders from before the 4th of June 1967. Even though Hamas controls the Gaza strip today, Norway is not recognizing Hamas as the goverment of Palestine, or is in any way rewarding them for the terror attacks they committed on the 7th of October last year. Currently it is Mahmoud Abbas, the party leader of al Fatah, who is recognized as the president of the palestinian people. Most countries refer to the Palestinian Authority when talking about Palestine and its future.
For a long time, the promise of recognition as reward for a lasting peace has been the strategy used by Norway, but now a Palestinian state is seen as a prerequisite for peace in the Middle East. Prime minister Støre says, among other things, the following about the recognition of Palestine as a state:
>When we recognize Palestine, we can more strongly encourage other countries to support the building of a Palestinian state and we can hold the Palestinian state accountable
>Recognizing a state is not about giving the green light to every policy a state pursues. We will not support a state that uses violence. The Palestinians must see that there is another hope than the path of violence.
Source in Norwegian: https://www.nrk.no/urix/noreg-anerkjenner-palestina-1.168916...
They need to use that to put pressure on both sides. Israel has been building settlements outside those 1967 borders. Arguably, that's an even worse violation of international law than the attack on Gaza. The latter is part of a war, where the enemy is routinely putting its own civilians at risk. The former is a pure land grab, lacking any fig leaf to the contrary.
Unwinding that is going to be ugly. Settlers will either become part of Palestine, or be forced to leave. (Which they should, but they'll be rightly angry at the Israeli government.)
On the other hand, Fatah has no idea how to prevent Hamas in Gaza from conducting attacks against Israel. That would make the October 7 attacks an act of war. Countries recognizing Palestine as a country can use that to apply pressure to prevent such a war, but that is also going to be deeply ugly.
Perhaps Fatah could call on its new allies to help police itself, as it tries to establish itself as a first-order country?
I would be deeply grateful to these countries if they could find ways to meaningfully help resolve this conflict -- as opposed to just declaring sides, which sadly is all too often what's happening on the world stage. There's a lot of bad blood and a lot of meddling from outside pushing violence, including both the US and Iran.
An independent Palestine will likely have democratic institutions which protects tyrannical movements from misusing their powers. Most resistance movements obey these structures as long as they are fair.
Now if Israel continues their interference (which is very likely) we may expect violence to continue regardless of how the Palestinian government is composed. This happened after Irish independence (which saw British interference in Norther Ireland) despite Sinn Féin not entering government.
They probably will (though Palestine's existing ICC membership and the top leadership of Hamas already having ICC warrants being sought and the ICC investigation continuing would likely have a substantial impact on which Hamas voices even have that opportunity, which eventuality, as much as the potential to embarrass Israel [I don't think they expect any Israeli target to actually see justice] was quite likely a factor in the more moderate Fatah leadership of Palestine joining the ICC and actively seeking their investigations of international crimes in Palestine in the first place.)
But since independence will have been established, they'll have to deliver on boring day to day stuff, without constant Israeli abuses like the cross-border sniping and the vetoing of all-Palestine elections that would include places currently administered by Israeli occupation authorities, etc., etc., etc.
New states formed by regional/ethnic separatist/independence movements often elect the political wing(s) of the group(s) that fought the prior government/occupier if independence is acheived after substantial armed struggle. This is usually far less of a problem than in actually revolutionary regimes that overthrow amd replace a central government, because there is usually less ongoing struggle against those invested in the old regime to justify post-victory war government, providing a pretext for repression and deprioritization of economic progress and QoL improvements for the citizenry.
Deleted Comment
Deleted Comment
Dead Comment