In 2024 it's borderline OK not to have an EV business. EV's are 10% of the American market, 25% of the European market and >50% of the Chinese market. The Chinese market is probably lost anyway due to the insane local competition, so concentrating in 2024 on the larger share of the market outside of China is reasonable.
Let's say that the flipover point is 2027.
And let's say it's 2027 and you're looking to buy an EV. You narrow down your choice to a 3rd generation Tesla, a second generation Ford or VW and a first generation Toyota or Honda. Reliability is the deciding factor. What do you choose? Lots of people are going to choose a Japanese brand despite any drawbacks getting a "bleeding edge" model entail.
By not ramping up EV production gradually they're setting themselves hard production and logistics problems. All new production processes have teething problems, and they're a lot easier to solve when production is in the 5 figures rather than when it is in the 7 figures, but if anybody can solve hard production and logistics problems it's probably Toyota.
Isn't it very likely that Chinese brands will also feature in the decision? From my sporadic reading here and there it seems they will be able to compete on price globally sooner rather than later.
It seems that people are not able to process the shock for the Chinese entrance to the automobile market. I have seen the Zeekr. It's simply insane. The price is competitive. The quality is competitive (I find it superior to VW and rather competing with BMW/Audi). China also can build stuff at large scale. Now, is it reliable for 5-7 years? That's still not known but we are about to find out.
Actually neither. The best car is the one that you can actually buy. That requires manufacturing, logistics and supplies. The likes of Toyota have barely begun the process of getting organized there. Even if they had an amazing EV product (which so far they don't), they'd struggle to sell a lot of them because they simply don't have factories, battery supplies, etc. in place that they would need for that. And at the scale they operate anything that doesn't sell in the millions of units is not worth doing. Getting from zero to there will take them quite a bit of time and money.
Which is why the winners in this market so far are Chinese and Korean manufacturers. And Tesla. Unlike other manufacturers they have manufacturing dialed in and a robust supply line with batteries and other things they need. Their main challenges are keeping up with demand and keeping cost low while growing manufacturing capacity.
The pace at which this market is growing means that it is getting harder for the likes of Toyota to break into this market. The few EVs they have on the market are actually not made by them and also a bit underwhelming. For example the bZ4X is actually a BYD car with a Toyota logo. That might be their future: leave the manufacturing to specialized companies and simply milk the brand. They seem to still insist they'll have their own drive trains and supposedly amazing batteries. But so far there's little sign of them building factories for those. Maybe that will work for them.
That sounds great, until you realize that new car sales have slowed significantly due to the economy and high interest rates; meaning that wealthy people have outsized buying influence at the moment.
This has caused dealerships to warn Congress that they believe EV purchase orders will decline in percentage when interest rates decline and the middle class starts buying cars in greater quantities again; making the Congressional recommended deadline unfeasible.
Nothing is what it seems in this industry. If we had a free market system here in the US GM would of went out of business in 08 and the streets would be filled with cheap BYD imports from China. We have major domestic protectionism in place b/c in times of war the auto industry can and has been used to produce the machines of war. EVs produced in the US by domestic automakers are heavily subsidized
Free Trade is something that powerful nations impose on less powerful nations. Anything else is just ideological bullshit.
EDIT: I understand that free trade theoretically could be a win-win game. But the real world is a lot more complicated, and is a historical fact that developed nations always have and continue to push for less powerful nations to open their markets while abusing of protectionist practices themselves.
That's a very narrow minded view. China is number one counterpoint. Without free trade, and very favorable terms that Western countries offered, China wouldn't become the superpower it is today. The tension between US and China today has more to do with geopolitics than protectionism.
Read the following (from 1984) to understand how Deng Xiao Peng saw the roles of Special Economic Zone in the revival of China's economy:
Then why does the Jones act exist and why is the US curtailing chip exports to China, and why does Mercosur want a trade deal with Europe?
No, free trade is mutually beneficial and the natural state of things, protection exists for two reasons. Pursuit of military interests (blockades) or satisfying domestic rent seekers. (e.g. the shipping industry, farmers etc.)
It is kind of sad to see Japanese EVs barely take off. After seeing all the weird and busted stuff about Teslas (on top of the "luxury price for fake luxury interior" stuff)... all I really want for an EV is a Yaris but with a battery.
I just want normal door handles and a satnav with buttons, and Japanese makers seem to be among the last holdouts.
It's sad, but it's not a surprise. I'm a huge Mazda fan and their first attempt at a BEV was pretty shitty. And consumers figured it out really quickly.
I just want normal door handles and a satnav with buttons
My mantra through this whole thing is "I don't want an electric car, I just want a car that's electric". I found what I was looking for in the XC40 Recharge, but I realize that's still a really expensive car for this market. I'm with you on a Yaris BEV.
Adding yet another dimension to the challenge is the transformational nature of the EV business, which may ultimately be driven less by hardware than software.
I'd argue the opposite. I wouldn't buy a software filled "smart EV". I'd love a dumb as hell, electric "kei van" that's 4WD.
No Japanese automaker produces them however, it's absolutely ridiculous considering how popular the form factor and "dumb" kei car is.
Software is eating all cars. It just happens that there weren't many good BEVs 20 years ago, so the touchscreen-takeover looks correlated with EVs.
Old Leaf and Renault Zoe have barely any tech in them (by modern standards). There was a niche Coda EV that was as "dumb" as any car from its era. EVs only need software for battery management.
Conversely, overuse of software, touchscreens and faux buttons made its way to contemporary ICE cars too. The crappy UI that VW has created for ID.3 has been "backported" to their ICE hatchbacks. Every car you buy with a 2024 model-year is going to be an iPad on wheels.
I'm so fucking glad I ride a push bike about 95% of the time. Not even an e-Bike, just a simple bike I can fix myself. It's good for me as well. I love the freedom of it so much.
I would not get a Leaf. Those things are quite poorly designed, with no proper heating or cooling for the batteries, leading to a very low lifespan on them. It's not just a first-generation problem either, it's persisted all these years.
I love the idea of electrics, but a Leaf is not the way to go.
Range anxiety and battery cost are the one of the biggest issue for an EV especially for smaller cars, so small battery Kei car for limited use case is easier to sell than subcompact car.
He's anti-EV, but the main point is pretty good: cars from different companies are all pretty much the same, so the next thing you should look at is the company itself- will they help you after the sale? Are they a good corporate citizen?
Dieselgate basically. They got a rude awakening around that time and accelerated plans to take EVs to market because they realized that their diesel strategy was dead in the water. So, they now have EV production capacity on multiple continents and battery supply secured. Their first generation platform has been a bit rough but they are selling cars built on it in volume now directly and through companies like Seat. The probably do so at a loss or with low margins. Which is something they have in common with other struggling manufacturers.
Hybrid sales are way up, that’s where the growth is going to be the next couple of years. The strategy that everyone was calling Toyota insane or even evil for is starting to make a lot more sense looking at market trends.
I don't know why Nissan isn't aggressively exporting the Sakura and Note e-power, the Note especially has a gas engine fallback that powers the battery (not the drivetrain) which should remove range anxiety
the problem with EV in Japan is that electricity is quite expensive (30~40 Yen/kwh) to the typical salaryman who earns around 300,000 Yen a month pretax/pension. It could be an easy 5 - 10% of their allocatable income.
To make it worse, the capacity of Japanese power grid isn’t very well. Although people are adapting EV cars and e-bikes in Japan, the price parity per charge isn’t that much comparing to gas.
I think what made it popular today is that gas price is skyrocketing (140->180/L within a year), so people started seeking alternatives.
Readit News
In 2024 it's borderline OK not to have an EV business. EV's are 10% of the American market, 25% of the European market and >50% of the Chinese market. The Chinese market is probably lost anyway due to the insane local competition, so concentrating in 2024 on the larger share of the market outside of China is reasonable.
Let's say that the flipover point is 2027.
And let's say it's 2027 and you're looking to buy an EV. You narrow down your choice to a 3rd generation Tesla, a second generation Ford or VW and a first generation Toyota or Honda. Reliability is the deciding factor. What do you choose? Lots of people are going to choose a Japanese brand despite any drawbacks getting a "bleeding edge" model entail.
By not ramping up EV production gradually they're setting themselves hard production and logistics problems. All new production processes have teething problems, and they're a lot easier to solve when production is in the 5 figures rather than when it is in the 7 figures, but if anybody can solve hard production and logistics problems it's probably Toyota.
The winner will not be the first one to the market, but the one at the right time with the best car on the market.
Which is why the winners in this market so far are Chinese and Korean manufacturers. And Tesla. Unlike other manufacturers they have manufacturing dialed in and a robust supply line with batteries and other things they need. Their main challenges are keeping up with demand and keeping cost low while growing manufacturing capacity.
The pace at which this market is growing means that it is getting harder for the likes of Toyota to break into this market. The few EVs they have on the market are actually not made by them and also a bit underwhelming. For example the bZ4X is actually a BYD car with a Toyota logo. That might be their future: leave the manufacturing to specialized companies and simply milk the brand. They seem to still insist they'll have their own drive trains and supposedly amazing batteries. But so far there's little sign of them building factories for those. Maybe that will work for them.
Ah, no. EV sales in the US are slowing with dealerships having large amounts of unsold inventory, as documented below:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2023/11...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/01/why-dealers-say-ev-sales-hav...
The total percentage of new cars being sold as EV is about 7.9% in the US for Q3 2023.
https://electrek.co/2023/10/12/ev-sales-7-9-us-market-volvo-...
https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/q3-2023-ev-sales/
That sounds great, until you realize that new car sales have slowed significantly due to the economy and high interest rates; meaning that wealthy people have outsized buying influence at the moment.
https://www.marketplace.org/2023/03/06/new-car-sales-have-sl...
This has caused dealerships to warn Congress that they believe EV purchase orders will decline in percentage when interest rates decline and the middle class starts buying cars in greater quantities again; making the Congressional recommended deadline unfeasible.
https://www.teslarati.com/car-dealers-biden-ev-demand/
Despite the above, EVs and Plug-in Hybrids combined register as only 1.2% of all vehicle registrations in the United States.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualized-ev-market-share-...
There are a many involved parties and they're affected by it in multiple ways.
I think you're trying to say the consumer harm of increased prices of EVs is outweighed by the benefits to industry etc?
EDIT: I understand that free trade theoretically could be a win-win game. But the real world is a lot more complicated, and is a historical fact that developed nations always have and continue to push for less powerful nations to open their markets while abusing of protectionist practices themselves.
Read the following (from 1984) to understand how Deng Xiao Peng saw the roles of Special Economic Zone in the revival of China's economy:
https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/deng-xiaoping/198...
No, free trade is mutually beneficial and the natural state of things, protection exists for two reasons. Pursuit of military interests (blockades) or satisfying domestic rent seekers. (e.g. the shipping industry, farmers etc.)
I just want normal door handles and a satnav with buttons, and Japanese makers seem to be among the last holdouts.
https://electrek.co/2023/07/29/mazda-kills-off-mx-30-ev-in-u...
And the CEO is just clueless.
https://insideevs.com/news/698183/mazda-ceo-says-evs-not-tak...
I just want normal door handles and a satnav with buttons
My mantra through this whole thing is "I don't want an electric car, I just want a car that's electric". I found what I was looking for in the XC40 Recharge, but I realize that's still a really expensive car for this market. I'm with you on a Yaris BEV.
https://cleantechnica.com/2023/05/06/my-first-ev-part-iv-202...
I'd argue the opposite. I wouldn't buy a software filled "smart EV". I'd love a dumb as hell, electric "kei van" that's 4WD.
No Japanese automaker produces them however, it's absolutely ridiculous considering how popular the form factor and "dumb" kei car is.
Old Leaf and Renault Zoe have barely any tech in them (by modern standards). There was a niche Coda EV that was as "dumb" as any car from its era. EVs only need software for battery management.
Conversely, overuse of software, touchscreens and faux buttons made its way to contemporary ICE cars too. The crappy UI that VW has created for ID.3 has been "backported" to their ICE hatchbacks. Every car you buy with a 2024 model-year is going to be an iPad on wheels.
All the config is via touchscreen: charging timers, climate timers, satnav, bluetooth, phone.
Has voice control, a mobile app
https://electrek.co/2023/05/25/tesla-model-y-is-now-the-worl... ("Tesla Model Y is now the world’s best-selling car, first EV to do so")
https://insideevs.com/news/698351/used-ev-prices-drop-sales-... ("Polestar 2, Ford F-150 Lightning, and Kia EV6 are among the slowest-selling used EVs.")
I love the idea of electrics, but a Leaf is not the way to go.
Dead Comment
Range anxiety and battery cost are the one of the biggest issue for an EV especially for smaller cars, so small battery Kei car for limited use case is easier to sell than subcompact car.
Applies to all modern cars, not just EVs.
Dead Comment
https://youtu.be/u1UfDOLk8ic?t=2103
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn0U55n7Vwg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjToFe1oAAI
He's anti-EV, but the main point is pretty good: cars from different companies are all pretty much the same, so the next thing you should look at is the company itself- will they help you after the sale? Are they a good corporate citizen?
Oh, one more:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/29/vw-condemne...
VW, as in VAG the enterprise, is doing quite well with brands like Skoda, Porsche and Audi.
To make it worse, the capacity of Japanese power grid isn’t very well. Although people are adapting EV cars and e-bikes in Japan, the price parity per charge isn’t that much comparing to gas.
I think what made it popular today is that gas price is skyrocketing (140->180/L within a year), so people started seeking alternatives.