I know people who are starting a start up or on a related area, investing in stocks/companies. Usually they are very enthusiastic and optimistic about what they're doing. I'm unfortunately a lot more risk adverse and cynical about certain ideas / "opportunities" and am willing to debate and challenge beliefs, but I realize that a lot of people just want the support and echo chamber acknowledgements.
I struggle with being unauthentic and genuine and wanting to share my opinions that the other person wasn't seeking.
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In truth, there’s good reasons do doubt every project, even the ones that end up being highly succesfull.
Unfortunately, it seems like human beings are highly pulled towards either working on something with unrealistic confidence, or sitting on the the couch and watching netflix.
Working on something with unrealistic confidence, even if that project itself is completely doomed to failure, is probably better for you than watching Netflix.
The one exception is, there is a higher than average probability that startup people with naive optimism end up getting into a position where they decide to end their life.
As someone who’s heavily biased towards just sitting on the couch (but reading a book, not watching Netflix :)), but married to an unrealistically confident wife, I have to agree.
I tend to panic whenever my wife comes up with her way-too-frequent ideas and goes ahead with them with minimal risk analysis, but at the end of the day she’s a much more accomplished and satisfied person than I am. I tend to look at every project from the most pessimistic angle possible and the end result is that I almost never actually do anything. I have a lot of book knowledge about a number of things but little to no experience, whereas she’s the exact opposite, and that tends to be more beneficial in real life.
I wonder if this is true. It's certainly the case that plenty of people who do nothing with their lives end up being suicidal.
But it's not necessary your job either to bring them down.
Just tell them honestly if they take a big risk that you see a risk and why.
I’ve got a bunch of friends in the same boat…Poorly thought out plans become pretty evident with simple questions like “what’s your plan?” Or “do you know how to build that product?”
But idk the other day I had a conversation like this:
Friend: “In a couple years I’ll be making over $1M/yr!”
Me: “How are you gonna do that?”
Friend: “I’ll just make more sales. Why can’t I?”
Some people are just delusional and I change the topic.
If the question is about a start ups, then no job can make the same money as a decent business isn't it?
Therefore instead of asking such questions I think one can discuss about the safety net. The question in that direction would be "How bad might it get if everything about this venture fails? Do you have a plan to recover from that?"
If it is obvious that your friends want support, give them that. Unless they are betting their life savings or doing something extremely risky why bring them down.
“Would you like me you think through potential risks and pitfalls, or are you looking for emotional support?”
If they answer the former, go right ahead and challenge them. If the latter then share your hopes for their success. Sometimes they know they have blind spots and they need your help before investing too much effort in the idea, sometimes they just want to share their enthusiasm.