It was almost impossible to kill all humans without starting the infection from Madagascar. If you started from somewhere else Madagascar always had time to close the borders.
> "To prevent the outbreak entering in Madagascar, all flights connecting Madagascar to Europe are suspended for 30 days," Madagascar President Hery Rajaonarimampianina said in a statement.
> Madagascar, one of the world's poorest nations where malnutrition is rife and outbreaks of deadly diseases are common, will also suspend air links to the nearby islands of La Reunion and Mayotte, he said.
My favourite cruise ship fiasco this week has been the newly imposed rule in New Zealand - they can’t dock, go away. So hours before the ban was imposed one docked and dumped all it’s passengers in the capital. https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120298962/...
I played a LOT of Theme Hospital when working on The Sims 1, and aspired to make the Sims editing tools as easy to use and "clicky" as Theme Hospital was. That and some of Peter Molyneux's older games like Dungeon Keeper, with architectural editing and a lot of independent characters running around at the same time, had a lot of influence on The Sims.
I am not a huge fan of this (or the WaPo) simulator, since I they seem to have chosen their models for the nice look (regular grid, bouncing balls) instead of for their accuracy.
While you can give people a rough idea of how different containment efforts will work, the models are so far removed from reality that I don't think that it really helps very much. Especially the WaPos'comparison' between different containment measures is IMHO borderline negligent without putting huge caveats in front of them.
Given how much normal people know about these issues (nothing whatsoever, or even less than nothing, somehow) I think the shortcomings of their model, vs. full physical simulation, is of no importance. It's a fantastic intuition-builder.
If we're talking about disease-based games, I highly recommend Pathologic 2. Nothing realistic there in terms of modeling disease spread or cure mechanics, it's a very artistic and somewhat abstract game, but it conveys certain social realities of being in a contagion zone really well. Among other things, it show the importance of not collectively freaking out.
I second this recommendation. I'm currently playing through Pathologic 2 for the first time. Playing through the game in the wider context of a pandemic makes for a very powerful experience.
How can I model the type of interaction between people. For example :is school a stronger vector of propagation than workplace ?
I ask because everybody in my country talks about what to stop (restaurants, culture,...) but never explain why working is considered less of a problem... (I have my little idea but well, ain't sure)
Tell a child to stop touching things and see how many things they touch, where they put their fingers, how many times they pick their nose etc and then you'll know.
My friend was in an airport recently. A mother dutifully used hand sanitizer on her 3 year old's hands. Within one minute the child had put their hands on every surface within a meter: arm rests, seat cushions, under the seat where the boogers and gum are, the floor, etc.
School is a bigger issues because children are usually are much closer together, are in the same room with far more people, and have far more interaction that adults at a typical job.
This https://www.pnas.org/content/116/27/13174 is a good paper, it gives numbers from actual school closures (in Russia), compares with areas where schools weren't closed, creates models for some scenarios too.
It would be interesting, possibly instructive to take a SIMS town and use it to model an epidemic.
Thx for the article. I've skimmed through it. Looks like closing schools averts 30% of cases. Not bad. But interestingly, in my country, I've never heard of a school closed because of influenza...
Super fun: In the full model { 5%, 3%, 5, 3, 0.25, 5, 14 } led to a walking sprawl of disease in a healthy population that lasted a long time, turning down the incubation days by 2 made it slower. The rate of new infections eventually eventually tapered off because the virus encountered its own sprawl like a growing structure in Go. Seems like a STD.
We had a small demo to simulate pandemic outbreak at malls. The simulation was mostly for demonstration purposes to illustrate how distancing impacts spread, and potentially some ways to help mitigate it.
This is cool but your hospital beds figure needs to be reduced dramatically because I believe you have taken the number of total hospital beds, not intensive care beds for the critically ill. In my country, the number of total beds is about 48 times the number of intensive care beds.
Readit News
It was almost impossible to kill all humans without starting the infection from Madagascar. If you started from somewhere else Madagascar always had time to close the borders.
Lo and behold: Madagascar is one of the few countries without infections in Global Cases tracker. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/14/world/africa/14re...
> "To prevent the outbreak entering in Madagascar, all flights connecting Madagascar to Europe are suspended for 30 days," Madagascar President Hery Rajaonarimampianina said in a statement.
> Madagascar, one of the world's poorest nations where malnutrition is rife and outbreaks of deadly diseases are common, will also suspend air links to the nearby islands of La Reunion and Mayotte, he said.
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/cruise-transatlantic-coro...
https://www.newgrounds.com/portal/view/448950
Turns out it's true.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y69QTjTvp1w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Le_znuXcP2M
I played a LOT of Theme Hospital when working on The Sims 1, and aspired to make the Sims editing tools as easy to use and "clicky" as Theme Hospital was. That and some of Peter Molyneux's older games like Dungeon Keeper, with architectural editing and a lot of independent characters running around at the same time, had a lot of influence on The Sims.
While you can give people a rough idea of how different containment efforts will work, the models are so far removed from reality that I don't think that it really helps very much. Especially the WaPos'comparison' between different containment measures is IMHO borderline negligent without putting huge caveats in front of them.
I ask because everybody in my country talks about what to stop (restaurants, culture,...) but never explain why working is considered less of a problem... (I have my little idea but well, ain't sure)
It'll only take a few minutes.
It would be interesting, possibly instructive to take a SIMS town and use it to model an epidemic.
Source: https://samharris.org/podcasts/190-respond-coronavirus/
http://socialdistance.ai/
Exponential growth is often counter-intuitive and lot of people don't seem to get it.
https://www.spreadsim.com/