I wonder how Iraq is going to respond to this? It seems like they've been pretty friendly with Iran lately, but now Iran is lobbing missiles at their country. For that matter, the U.S. lobbed missiles at their country too the other day. I can't imagine they're happy about two major powers lobbing missiles at each other in their territory, but I don't know what they can do to get them to stop in the short term. (Kicking them all out may be the long-term solution.)
If launched from Iranian territory there is a pretty clear case for the US to go to war.
I know the “WW3” meme is popular right now but Iran is only a regional power and would likely lose a conventional war quickly against the US (matter of days or weeks).
> Iran is only a regional power and would likely lose a conventional war quickly against the US (matter of days or weeks).
Iran would lose control of their airspace pretty quickly and we'd be able to drop bombs on whoever we want, but there's no quick way the United States could occupy and control the country in that time (at least, not without resorting to weapons and tactics that would cause massive loss of civilian life, and which most soldiers would I hope refuse to carry out).
If the article is correct, they were not only launched from Iran, but Iran admits it.
This is going to get very interesting in terms of internal US politics. The Democrats don't trust Trump, including in terms of his motives and judgment in dealing with Iran. They also, in general, oppose war. They're trying to use the War Powers Act to reign him in. But if they do so, and prevent a response to this latest attack, that could cost a number of them dearly in the next election - especially since Iran is not likely to stop at firing a few missiles at two US bases.
Neocons are in both parties and have influenced both Bush and Obama to “architect” the ME. These are globalists who want to accelerate their global political vision ("democratize" everyone and we’ll all get along). [so they can make their money]
When one country's government openly assassinates a senior member of another country's government, the second country might reasonably feel that war had already begun.
For it to be WW3 Iran would need to get absolutely destroyed to where China would then come in to defend them, and then US allies would also need to get involved and so on. I'm no expert at foreign affairs, but I just don't see that happening.
Maybe US should just leave the region where it isn't welcome. Also, if this were to turn into a conventional war, I predict the US would suffer massive losses, unless they resort to using tactical nukes. The US hasn't been on the winning side of a war since WW2.
The US has won every war as much as was desired, and it will continue to do so. Every supposed "loss" occurs in DC politics, not as a result of inability on the battlefield.
I've seen estimates on the amount of US soldiers dead ranging from 0 to 180 while this article doesn't mention any deaths. It's crazy how large of a fluctuation there is, it's so hard to know what news sources are valid.
If casualties are zero, we can laugh it off as an impotent hissy fit by an incompetent adversary.
If casualties are non-zero, the President will be obliged to carry out his “52 targets” threat. This is probably the right move — don’t play tit-for-tat against a less powerful adversary, instead immediately escalate to a level they can’t possibly match.
Unfortunately Iran’s air defences are more potent than anyone the US has bombed recently, so we might be about to find out just how good US technology really is.
What happens next? I’m not sure. I can’t imagine the US committing to a ground invasion of Iran, but it should be possible with an air campaign to reduce Iran to the level of a 2000-era Iraq.
Edit: President Trump’s latest “all is well” tweet, and his intention to hold off on doing a briefing until tomorrow, seems to imply that US casualties were zero after all and that he’s chosen the “laugh it off” response, which is a great relief to me.
Those bases house American, allied/coalition and Iraqi soldiers. The US forces will respond regardless what the casualty count looks like. Something like that even if they missed can’t be ignored.
Readit News
If launched from Iranian territory there is a pretty clear case for the US to go to war.
I know the “WW3” meme is popular right now but Iran is only a regional power and would likely lose a conventional war quickly against the US (matter of days or weeks).
Iran would lose control of their airspace pretty quickly and we'd be able to drop bombs on whoever we want, but there's no quick way the United States could occupy and control the country in that time (at least, not without resorting to weapons and tactics that would cause massive loss of civilian life, and which most soldiers would I hope refuse to carry out).
Some of the logistical issues are explained here: https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Jan06.html
Conventional War =/= Guerrilla War
Guerrilla Wars can go on for decades even with lots of boots on the ground.
This is going to get very interesting in terms of internal US politics. The Democrats don't trust Trump, including in terms of his motives and judgment in dealing with Iran. They also, in general, oppose war. They're trying to use the War Powers Act to reign him in. But if they do so, and prevent a response to this latest attack, that could cost a number of them dearly in the next election - especially since Iran is not likely to stop at firing a few missiles at two US bases.
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Dead Comment
If casualties are non-zero, the President will be obliged to carry out his “52 targets” threat. This is probably the right move — don’t play tit-for-tat against a less powerful adversary, instead immediately escalate to a level they can’t possibly match.
Unfortunately Iran’s air defences are more potent than anyone the US has bombed recently, so we might be about to find out just how good US technology really is.
What happens next? I’m not sure. I can’t imagine the US committing to a ground invasion of Iran, but it should be possible with an air campaign to reduce Iran to the level of a 2000-era Iraq.
Edit: President Trump’s latest “all is well” tweet, and his intention to hold off on doing a briefing until tomorrow, seems to imply that US casualties were zero after all and that he’s chosen the “laugh it off” response, which is a great relief to me.
The US might actually get to use it’s SEAD capabilities for a change....