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valuearb commented on The Shroud of Turin: History and Legends   michaelshermer.substack.c... · Posted by u/royalroad
d_theorist · a year ago
It’s extremely relevant to the question, which is what the negative nature of the image has to tell us about the relative probabilities of the two hypotheses (miraculous hypothesis vs fraud hypothesis).

In my view, it is a big problem for the fraud hypothesis because you have to explain why and how it was done. At a time when the idea of a photo negative was entirely unknown, and when there are no other examples of negative images, or even any mention of the idea of making such images, why would the fraudsters seize on the idea of making their fraudulent image a negative? There is no record of anybody even recognising that it is a negative until the 19th century. So, it’s not at all what you would expect given the fraud hypothesis. You would expect a straightforward image.

valuearb · a year ago
> In my view, it is a big problem for the fraud hypothesis because you have to explain why and how it was done.

Why is it hard to imagine the perpetrators just painted a model with red ochre and draped a cloth over him?

And you are misunderstanding the burden of proof, fraud is merely one possible explanation. Even if you show that its real blood instead of paint, how do you demonstrate that its not the impression of a dead medieval knight and was later mis-interpreted as a shroud of Jesus after the original creation was forgotten?

Those who would claim its actually the shroud of Jesus have the burden of proving it could possibly be old enough, that it could have been woven by peoples of that time, that the red ochre is actually blood, that Jesus actually existed, that he was crucified, and that he was laid in this shroud and its his blood.

And even then that doesn't show he was resurrected, or that he was divine, or a god, or anything to that effect. We have a ton of evidence Jesus wasn't, his own failed prophecy of the kingdom of heaven coming before the disciples passed, and his crying out for god on the cross.

Mostly we have the fact that the super active, super public god of the bible disappeared after all these stories were written and hasn't been seen since, despite claiming its the most important thing in the world that people know he exists. Essentially damning more than 90% of all the people who have ever lived to hell.

valuearb commented on Nordstream: An Accident?   thelawdogfiles.com/2022/0... · Posted by u/h2odragon
bombcar · 3 years ago
Both the US and Russia could have factions that benefit from Germany being unable to turn the gas back on. Factions in Germany, too.

Whomever did it (and US and Russia are NOT the only actors capable) the clear result is these pipelines are no longer operational and there is very little political will anywhere to rebuild them.

valuearb · 3 years ago
Sabotaging these pipelines would be bad news for Putin, removing his leverage this winter to try to reduce support for Ukraine.

Biden getting caught sabotaging this pipeline would destroy the critical European coalitions he spent so much time building.

valuearb commented on Nordstream: An Accident?   thelawdogfiles.com/2022/0... · Posted by u/h2odragon
behaveEc0n00 · 3 years ago
The opinion this is cheap talk might be a shitty one?

Gas line works fine for years, suddenly during regional conflict it goes tits up?

A dying country whose leadership seems intent on putting it out of its misery sending its potential fathers to a meat grinder, a history of stupid big picture choices, angry at the world for not letting it conquer it might partake in environmental sabotage.

It’s a lot less on the nose than nukes; if we can’t have imperialist nation state, no one can!

The holocaust is proof of human indifference to each other’s existence. What do a bunch of old turds care about intentional environmental destruction?

valuearb · 3 years ago
Gas line works for years, then 6 months after removal of western technical experts and ending of cooperation with technicians running west end of pipeline (which article stressed were critical to clearing plugs like these safely) it goes tits up.

Putin is not going to blow up his biggest leverage over Europe during a cold winter, its his only chance at getting them to reduce support for Ukraine.

valuearb commented on Nordstream: An Accident?   thelawdogfiles.com/2022/0... · Posted by u/h2odragon
namaria · 3 years ago
Unqualified opinions are cheap. This random internet guy thinks sabotage is unlikely on the Nord Stream incident based on what is published on news websites? This has a weight of exactly zero.
valuearb · 3 years ago
Your opinion is far more unqualified than a carefully researched blog.

If you don't think what he wrote is true, rebut him factually, random HN guy.

valuearb commented on Nordstream: An Accident?   thelawdogfiles.com/2022/0... · Posted by u/h2odragon
stuckinhell · 3 years ago
It's clearly not an accident.

It's also hard to believe it was Russia, since now they can't blackmail Europe.

Both Biden and Victoria Nuland have both publicly threaded to take out the pipelines on video no less.

valuearb · 3 years ago
Biden and Nuland threatened to stop it using their political leverage, not force.

Sabotage would destroy the European coalition against Russian aggression they've worked so hard to build.

Really ludicrous conspiracy theory that makes an accident the most likely cause.

valuearb commented on Nordstream: An Accident?   thelawdogfiles.com/2022/0... · Posted by u/h2odragon
supergirl · 3 years ago
my money is on US and/or UK. they seized the moment of chaos and destroyed the pipeline permanently. they have a lot to gain from this. it simply weakens EU, makes it more dependent on US/UK, weakens economy, etc. UK is not EU's friend and US is only a friend as long as EU falls in line and you never know in the future.

Russia could have done it too but it makes no sense and most importantly they have a track record of failing and getting caught with even simpler schemes (e.g. novichok attack).

just the fact that US is not jumping to blame Russia this time and Sweden already said they treat it not as an attack on Sweden (so if it turns out US did it, Sweden is just gonna say it's in international waters, not a Swedish asset, etc.). I mean US intelligence knows what Putin has for dinner. Impossible they don't know who did this, in NATO waters. Only EU doesn't know. US/UK surely know and if it was Russia they'd publish video footage 1 min after explosion.

valuearb · 3 years ago
It's ludicrous to think Biden would green light an operation like this when he finally has a European coalition against Russian aggression helping Ukraine whin the war.

This would destroy that coalition in seconds.

valuearb commented on Nordstream: An Accident?   thelawdogfiles.com/2022/0... · Posted by u/h2odragon
m4jor · 3 years ago
It was a nation-state backed attack imo, no accident.
valuearb · 3 years ago
There is no evidence of this, and no nation actor with a motivation to do this.
valuearb commented on Nordstream: An Accident?   thelawdogfiles.com/2022/0... · Posted by u/h2odragon
Ekaros · 3 years ago
And who actually gains from this in the long run... Certainly not Germany or Russia... Should make it pretty clear. It could be UK as tradition of breaking down Europe, but they are having enough issues that the timing is entirely wrong... I don't think China cares, so maybe Arabs, but I doubt. Only really leaves USA and we know what they have historically been up to.
valuearb · 3 years ago
The US finally has a coalition against Russian aggression in Europe, that is key to helping Ukraine win the war. Why would they throw this away on a stupid sabotage operation?
valuearb commented on Nordstream: An Accident?   thelawdogfiles.com/2022/0... · Posted by u/h2odragon
pvaldes · 3 years ago
Pretty obvious sabotage. Neither a whale, nor a trawl can do it. Who benefits is a different question.

Russia is economically damaged but once deciding that selling gas to Europe is not more an option, Putin has now a plausible excuse to not fulfill the gas contracts anymore, without being economically penalized for breaking those contracts, because... not my fault.

It is desperate also to spark the flames of war in their population. So can use also the issue as leverage to force apathetic Russian people that for some strange reason don't like to die to accept the new situation.

If Russian people keep refusing to fight in the war, the war is over. And if Russia lose this war, Putin is politically dead and will be removed from the power by any means necessary. And removed means, probably killed by its own people. He needs to put their citizens in a much worse situation, so can justify a full call to arms.

European Union does not have nothing to gain with this.

USA could benefit as gas seller and to force Putin to not use nuclear arms in Ukraine near the remaining pipes. Putin went to Belarus only few days ago.

Other could benefit for undisclosed reasons. (Edited the China could benefit part, it was clearly a stupid idea)

valuearb · 3 years ago
Putin doesn't care about contracts. He does care about having operational pipelines so he can use them as leverage with the west when Europe runs low on energy.

The US finally cobbled together a coalition to block Russian aggression, and the coalition is enabling Ukraine to win this war. Why would they want to destroy this coalition getting caught sabotaging pipelines in Europe?

Occcams razor says typical terrible Russian maintenance.

valuearb commented on Nordstream: An Accident?   thelawdogfiles.com/2022/0... · Posted by u/h2odragon
geysersam · 3 years ago
This is ridiculous. Every relevant government and official statement has made clear that this was sabotage.
valuearb · 3 years ago
And what authority and expertise do they have?

u/valuearb

KarmaCake day7447January 20, 2017View Original